Maintaining a disconnect between the people and the realities of an endless war is of utmost importance to the military industrial complex, and Manning's actions threatened that disconnect, and her release would send a message that leaking documents that threaten the disconnect is OK, and that is not okay if your business model is endless conflict, somewhere, over some thing.
Morality is counterproductive in the short term, and the short term is what shows up on the balance sheets.
I'm sorry to be so cynical, I really am, but I just don't see it happening. That said, I was wrong about them working with her to complete her hormonal therapy, and it stands to chance, that I'm wrong again. Here's hoping