In the popular vote, for sure. The GOP is already gearing up for it with Harris. Not that it comes as any surprise from the semi-official party of sexism.
ETA: quite sad that, a century after women got the vote, Republicans are still pulling out the same stale old scare stories about women bossing men around.
Harris will get the full treatment, misogyny, racism, and nativism.
The target voters aren’t the ones who would have voted against Obama because of race. As I said, they are going for moderate Republicans. They are looking at the states Clinton lost for the Dems. The Great Lakes states, Kasich’s Ohio, for example.
“In the end, what that map tells us is not that the Dems need to appeal to “moderate” conservatives to win but that they need to reform or abolish the broken-by-design electoral college.”
I agree it needs desperately to be changed or tossed out. How you would do that without at least some Republican support is a difficult question. No matter who wins or how things change, neither party is going to accomplish it alone.
I understand what you’re saying. I just don’t think that strategy is going to work as well anymore. Clinton could have won MI’s and WI’s Electoral College votes if she’d bothered to campaign in them. But she thought of them as sure things for the Dems instead of the highly polarised swing states (like OH and PA) they’d become and probably remain.
The only benefit to “moderate” Republican politicians like Kasich speaking would be if they took the occasion to officially leave the party and/or were honest enough to say to Republicans “look, I’m not going to ask you to vote for Biden or any Dem, but do us all a favour and stay home this year.” But as I noted, these poltroons and chancers won’t do either.
I don’t think either party’s establishment will. The EC is one of the key elements that keeps the party duopoly system in place.
OT: Youse guys have gone so far off topic I can hardly believe the forbearance. Got me hooked though.
WOT: @gracchus What is this third way theory of political governance you speak of?
You’re right, this has gotten off-topic. Kasich is certainly a member of the duopoly party that enables white supremacy in America, it’s far from usual that the Dems would invite someone from that party to speak, but I don’t think he’s doing outreach on behalf of the Dems to the kind of scumbags who tried to hold this rally.
Which goes to my original point: I’m not going to waste my time trying to reach out to or convert far-right idiots, nor am I going to sacrifice liberal core values and ally with politicians like Kasich to bring in “moderate” conservative votes. While qualitatively different, they exist of the same spectrum of compromising with bad actors instead of reaching out to progressives, and in terms of effectiveness both are wastes of time.
Speaking of compromising with conservative ideologues, here’s the definition for you:
In terms of politicians, think Dems like the Clintons or UK Labour politicians like Blair with their neoliberal-lite and corporate-friendly economic policies and their hawkish military policies. It’s basically the response of privileged cowards on the left with no imagination to the popularity of Reaganism and Thatcherism.
The Third Way usually preserves “have-a-cookie” social liberalism, although on occasion it veers into attempts to appeal to casually racist conservatives (usually via “law-and-order” policies that tend to disproportionately impact minorities).
Land doesn’t vote.
Obama did it twice.
90s moderate Republicans are Biden’s base. 2020s moderate Republicans are so batshit crazy they won’t vote for a Democrat no matter what. Just write them off and go after the liberals and the Left, whose support Biden could sorely use.
No wonder I never heard of it. I was having to much fun in the 1970s.
Back on topic: Are there multiple Modern Confederate States units? Of all the names to pick why the losing side? I think they should work on their self-esteem.
Like many privileged white conservatives (especially Xtianists), they take pride in their “martyrdom” and regularly lament the “Lost Cause”. It’s part of the sickness.
It does in the Electoral College and Senate, more’s the pity.
I recall about a year ago waiting in a doctor’s office, where there were a couple of guys in MAGA hats in the waiting room loudly trading complaints about the state of society. I couldn’t help overhearing the proclamation of how UNFAIR it was that the City People always won the local elections - because they outnumbered the Regular Folks. (That’s how elections in a democracy work. The Electoral College was carefully engineered to make sure that they don’t work that way in the USA.)
Land doesn’t vote.
It kinda does. In my state 600,000+ people voted for Clinton. My state gave her 0 electoral votes. It wasn’t the people that were 100% for Trump, it was “the state.”
Obama did it twice.
“A study by the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group found that 9.2% of Obama voters voted for Trump in 2016.[2] According to the American National Election Study, 13% of Trump voters had voted for Obama in 2012.[3] Some analysts have argued that these voters had a disproportionately large impact on the 2016 election because they were concentrated in key swing states in the Midwest while others have said they were actually “Obama Republicans” rather than Democrats to begin with.[2][4] A May 2017 analysis by Global Strategy Group estimated that Obama-Trump voters accounted for more than two-thirds of Hillary Clinton’s loss.”
So land doesn’t vote. The MAGA hats in that waiting room wishes it did, but fortunately it doesn’t.
Not that I’m defending the Electoral College. The Electoral College is a fundamentally unfair system that has been fucking up presidential elections since Andrew Jackson’s day. I’m just saying that land voting would be even worse.
Not land, but population. Sort of.
Whatever party (not candidate, but party) that wins the popular vote in a state has its electors vote for President. Unless that state is Maine or Nebraska, both of which have freewheeling districts that operate independently of the rest of the state, which is less unfair. These electors don’t even have to vote for candidates that are running. Colin Powell got three electoral votes last election, for example.
It’s a fucked up system that doesn’t even represent the public, but it’s not as bad as land based voting.
That is the key phrase here.
What? The swing between Turmp winning those swing states and Clinton having an even higher margin the other way was 15,000-ish votes. With higher voter turnout by a percentage point or two, Clinton wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Turnout is the key to Dem victory, period. Conversion of moderate Rs is frosting on the electoral cake.
They were close, sure, but I am not sure the results there this time will be much different unless Biden claims the Obama/Trump voters.
She lost Ohio by almost a half million votes, thus Kasich. If Covid goes in predictable ways by flu season, I wouldn’t expect a pleasant surprise with turnout. I wouldn’t want to go into this relying on getting all or most of the progressives to vote. The fat middle is fat, though.
My personal feeling is, if it is close, Trump wins. I could be wrong, granted. I never expected Trump to win last time, but then I never expected moderate Republicans to vote for him.
We’ll have to disagree on that particular point. It feels like your conclusion jumped over something. You’re convinced of your position and I don’t have the ability to persuade you.
I do apologies for misunderstandings earlier. I re-read your posts and I took something very different away from it on first read. Now I feel like I’ve been tilting at windmills w.r.t. those side-threads of our discussion. Sorry if this has not been a fruitful conversation.
This isn’t a southern thing. Idaho likely has more stereotypical wingnut white people than any southern state as a percentage of population. Southern states have plenty of racists, we we also have black people.
it is the largest bas relief statue on the planet. measures almost 2 acres carved 12 feet into the mountain. Silent Sam was a 9’ tall bronze.
