Mutual complicity: it works.
Part of the danger is that people supporting the administration’s policies now are also complicit, albeit at a much lower level. Once you’ve signed on for a particular position, it’s much harder to say “No, I was wrong.” You’re more likely to find reasons to defend your earlier decision than to recognize a mistake. And that’s how autocrats and authoritarians drag people along with them, starting with things that are (relatively) uncontroversial or morally ambiguous, and then leading them on until eventually they find themselves supporting something entirely outrageous.
As Archer would put it, “You want concentration camps and mass exterminations? Because that’s how you get concentration camps and mass exterminations.”
Five 38 has him at 42% in their aggregate. MoSt individual polls show him in the low 40s. Where he’s been for months. Though Rasmussen, who tend to have a certain skew, have had him above 45% over the same time period.
Aside from those individual polls like Rasmussen, he’s in no way “at his highest approval rating ever”. Which was around 47.
More over it’s not like these approval rates are good. Maybe he’s on one of his occasion upward spasms. But we talk about his approvals like they’re some sort of insurmountable sign of massive support. Approval ratings in the high 30s to low 40s are bad. He’s a historically unpopular president. His high end is close to the doldrums even for other unpopular president’s. These same numbers for G-Dubs were a sign of his failure.
And this breaking up families thing is a ridiculously unpopular policy. 60% disprove. And only like half of republicans like it. The rule of thumb on scandals and policies is it’s two weeks before they effect approvals. Given when this crap hit big we’re still a week or more out before it has impact on approval polling.
Even some engelicals are attacking the administration for this.
Gotta keep that evil under wraps man.
Republicans surveyed recently were more likely to view Nancy Pelosi unfavorably than they were to view Kim Jong Eun unfavorably.
Hey, @Akimbo_NOT! I’m in Centreville - where are you? Prince William, at a guess? (Cory Stewart’s stomping grounds, for those playing along at home).
Fuck confederate Virginia. They’ve always been infested with racist traitors.
I think you’re right, unfortunately. This plays into his strengths and it gives his base what they want: it forces Democrats to be the one-note party sticking up for illegal immigrants while Trump is just trying to keep our country safe and enforce our laws.
Does anyone think those same evangelicals will NOT support him in 2020?
No but it looks bad and nearly every Christian denomination that’s less of a lock for the GOP is pissed after Sessions’ devine right of kings justification.
Even then events this far ahead of a presidential election have precious little effect. Maybe on the midterms. I’d expect more suppressed turn out than an evangelical flip at best.
But again. He’s not putting up winning numbers to begin with. This shit is doable. GOP support isn’t impressive on the whole right now.
I would love nothing more than to be wrong and pleasantly surprised, but I think when 2020 comes around the GOP base will look at all the wish-list legislation they’ve gotten in this term, the gutting of the EPA and other regulatory agencies, packing the courts with a generation’s worth of conservative judges, and most importantly how mad he makes liberal snowflakes, and they’ll come out in droves for the guy.
Unless and until the Democrats demonstrate they can put up someone charismatic and progressive enough to actually motivate people to come out and vote, I’m not sure how he gets beat.
I always keep in mind that these polls are a little skewed towards Americans with land-line phones who engage with political pollsters. In other words, bored retirees. Trump loves 'em!
Well it is gonna boil down to having a good candidate. If the dems send out a piece of wood with questionable sexual history they’ll be squandering things.
But the GOP hasn’t gotten much of its wish list legislation. They’ve been fairly bogged down in infighting. Many of their big pushes have petered out pretty broadly. And in terms of executive action you got the China trade war pissing off the moneyed set that actually for Trumps base. And kids in cages among other things pissing off key groups.
The kind of Trump voter that wants to see browns locked up in dog kennels doesn’t give a shit about appointments and judges. And the voters who do are the class that’s starting to get skittish about his trade nonsense and the economy.
We’re already seeing in terms of special elections, And the out looks for the midterms turn out problems and surprising failures. Left and right for the GOP. And GOP Congress critters are “retiring” rather than seeking election. Including the god damn speaker of the house.
Trumps win in the election came from a losing plurality. And popular support for the guy has fallen since then. His intra-party support, never universal to begin with, seems to be slipping.
Which is my whole point. This is not broad support. These are not difficult numbers to over come. A creep up from 40% to 42% approval is not an “oh my god this guy is unbeatable” moment. Is another slight shift in a sea of (non predictive at this point) bad numbers.but the whole conversation around Trump seems to assume deep support, forgone conclusions of success. Which seems self defeating to me, And it’s also innacurate.
I mean Cory is telling us to panic/get pissed because Trumps got his highest approval ratings EVAR.
Which just isn’t true. His overall approval rating is lower. 45 is below his peak. And it’s not even the highest result he’s gotten in a single poll. Maybe it’s the highest in the poll in question. But it’s right in line with where he’s been for months. It’s effectively “no change”. But OH MY GOD panic you guys.
Yeah. I mean, I get that people are worried about complacency and outrage fatigue and people just tuning out politics because it’s too depressive. But this relentless fearmongering and autodefeatism that seems to pervade so much of the American leftists and progressives and liberals is a) counterproductive and b) really, really annoying to watch.
God damn America.
I really disagree with that. First, the run of the mill GOP base voter DOES care about judicial appointments, I think, first and foremost being the Supreme Court. They hate the judiciary, and they love that Trump is packing it with like-minded people. The anti-abortion people in particular (and those fuckers come out and vote) considers this a core issue and they are getting their money’s worth out of this guy. They think they are on the verge of defacto outlawing of abortion, and I’m not sure they’re wholly wrong.
They’ve had some notable failures, but he’s gotten massive tax breaks, he’s gutted regulatory agencies, he’s withdrawn from the Paris Accords, and a slew of other things that are changing the course of our country at a fairly fundamental level.
And that trade war is going to absolutely fuck a bunch of farmers and other folks in deeply red states, which might take his margin of victory in those states from 18% to 12%. It’s not flipping those states.
For the record, I’m not proposing panic over his approval numbers. I am of the opinion, however, that he has a better than 50/50 chance of winning in 2020 given the reality of the electoral map and the propensity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
I agree that defeatism is counterproductive and annoying. But I also think that a big part of our country has convinced themselves that of course this country will snap back to its senses in 2020 because they’re so horrified by the things they’ve seen from this administration. I think that is whistling past the graveyard in some respects and ignores the reality that the things that horrify a lot of us are the same things that are motivating his base.
Is that a taco in place of the star of David?
Burn it down. We’re done. (And by “it,” I mean “America.”)
Yes, ingenious.
While I tend to doubt the accuracy of such polls, I do tend to worry that many people won’t wake up and take action until there’s little to no food on the grocery store shelves… ‘bread and circuses’ have worked all too well on the general populace.
The day I have to quit my job to defend my backyard from human invaders is the day I say “fuck it, get in the car, we’re driving to Canada and we’re not coming back.”
