Exactly, and I can’t imagine the circumstance where he would go off-script on that. It’s not like he has some kind of secret list of his favorite lesser-known federal jurists who he thinks deserve a shot.
He might go off-script for some lesser federal judge appointments, but unless there’s some alt-right “think tank” to slip him names, that won’t be many.
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The problem comes from there being multiple factions in the GOP. You’ve got the “moderates”, who aren’t really all that moderate, And their swing state compatriots. Who either don’t want a rabidly conservative candidate. Or fear the electoral fallout from pushing one.
Then you got your far right groups. Including the house freedom caucus. Who will want the most ridiculously ideological candidate possible regardless of qualifications.
And there’s your root of the infighting and internal negotiations. It’s more of a feature of the house. But the senators are more skittish about going far right because those cross state elections mean Gerrymamdering and hardline ideological areas don’t makes for safe seats.
But their margin is a hell of a lot closer. 49 to 51. So it’s a lot easier for even a single senator from their caucus to sand bag just about everything. A good lot of their infighting has boiled down to the house freedom caucus and other far right elements forcing a ridiculously right wing bill through the house and an inability to get the Senate to do the same. Often down to just a hand full of senators stamping their feet.
These guys are obstructing themselves. And while it’s sometimes easy enough for them to get routine stuff like regular judicial appointments done. Items with national attention, or any inkling of importance and bargaining power. Keep getting delayed, bogged down, or passed off for fear or not whipping the votes. Whether it’s Rand Paul showing off. Or concerns that John McCain can’t attend due to his his health. It’s incredibly easy to derail them. They need every member to attend and vote affirmative to avoid problems.
And again there’s an election in November where this will all change. It’s increasingly likely the DNC will retake the house. And the Senate is, surprisingly, in play as well.
So they have 6 months where it’s clearly possible they can confirm anyone without DNC involvement. Even a loss of one Senate seat makes that much less likely.
There’s very little reason to believe we’ll be losing a justice before the end of the year. Even if we do the current dynamic in the Senate means the GOP would likely have to moderate at least a bit. And after the midterms its far from certain they’ll even have the power to be in charge of the process.
More over all this shit starts in the Senate judiciary committee. Which is currently broken up 11 GOP to 10 DNC. There are very good reasons for the backlog on confirmations. They just don’t have unilateral, easy control of either their caucus or the Senate. It’s a different playing field, And a different environment from when they pushed Gorsuch through.
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Another Gorsuch is all they need. He’s deeply conservative, young, and frankly, impeccably qualified to sit on the bench. There’s no reason to suspect that the next person on the Federalist Society’s list would be any different, because there are a dozen easy candidates to pick from.
Frankly, I’m puzzled by this hypothetical that somehow the GOP’s base would punish it for confirming a conservative SC nominee. There is probably nothing that unites the GOP base more than getting another conservative judge on the Court.
Who said anything about the GOP base? A senator sitting in a swing state is subject to the whole state. If the whole state swings left in given election they’re at risk of losing their seat. That tends to happen if they’re viewed as too conservative. That’s the base reason there are any moderate (ish) republicans left. And the Senate is less extreme than the house.
Not their base punishing them. But swing voters switching horses. And increased turn out from dnc voters.
Before the big (public) uniter was SC judges, the pitch and the campaign promise. It was repealing Obama care of day one. Most of these guys were elected with that as their central promise. An they fought about how to do it, not whether to, so much they’ve repeatedly fucked themselves.
As has been the case with nearly every headline worthy item of national importance since Gorsuch. They’ve lost 3 seats since they obstructed Garland. And 1 since they confirmed Gorsuch. And as a result they have a much tighter margin on the judiciary committee.
The situation with the Senate right now is that any one to two GOP senators can hold whatever they’d like up for an long as they’d like. To get whatever they need out of it. And we’ve seen that actually happen on nearly everything that’s come through there. I don’t see any reason to expect that’ll change. Especially as the pressures driving it have only ramped up. There were complaints and threats within the GOP over Garland and Gorsuch as it was. With the escalation of that infighting we’ve seen, And the GOP so close to hit having enough Senate votes to begin with. I don’t see how yet another most important thing suddenly makes their machine run properly.
If by chance this comes up before the end of the year. They’ll get their confirmation. But I’d expect it to be messy.
So you think that GOP Senators will balk at appointing someone as conservative as Gorsuch because they’re concerned about swing voters? Friend, I just think we’ll have to agree to disagree about this.
I think the GOP Senate has already balked at the most far right versions of nearly everything they’ve thrown at the legislature.
I think that the same at risk senators responsible for that will be just as willing to Fuck around over a Supreme Court nomination as anything else.
That might be balking. That might be holding out to get some pork. That might be stamping their feet publicly to make them selves look good Rand Paul style.
I also find it just as likely that a far right guy threatens to hold out unless he gets a vote on a pet issue. Say “your guy isn’t extreme enough, I won’t vote unless I get a vote on the border wall”.
Or Trump will Fuck something up. He purportedly threatened to revoke Gorsuch’s nomination because some GOP members criticised the pick. I wouldn’t put it past him to say “Fuck you guys” and nominate the hamburgler. His appointments have been getting weirder and less connected to the establishment and traditional right wing power brokers.
They’re having trouble getting their existing federal nominees out of committee because of these sorts of problems. And there was already some minor grumbling with Gorsuch.
And most of all I think that this is entirely moot because for any of this to be a factor it has to happen now.
There doesn’t seem to be any reason to think they’ll be in a stronger position. With clearer majorities. After the mid terms.
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