True, off by two years. He can be an honorary boomer, he’s ahead of his time!
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A progressive vp is a risky choice, though no one seems to want to admit it out loud, so probably Amy sadly
Why? Historically, VPs have mostly added voters, not subtracted them. Maybe the only recent example of a negative VP choice was Palin, and arguably she shored up the Tea Party voters who thought McCain was too moderate.
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Is it the top of the hour yet?
But I don’t see a liberal VP costing Biden votes.
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It seems to me that you have that completely backwards. The traditional approach is to pick someone complementary to make up for a perceived deficiency- whether it’s geographical, specific skills, sections of the electorate or say experience. Like Obama picking Biden as he seemed young. Kennedy picking Johnson for the Texas vote. Bush picking Cheney because he didn’t yet seem evil enough.
He’s going to get as much of the moderate & white guy vote as any Dem possibly could. He either picks a progressive for that section of the party - or dances with “who brung him” and picks an African American woman. And he’s said he’s looking at women and at other candidates- Warren or Harris.
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Or he could go the other way and try to reel in the moderate suburban Republicans, eg the stay-at-home moms who voted for Trump because of (the press distortions of) Hilary’s “cookies” statement. However, I do think that Warren was not unpopular with that group, despite her being a progressive. I don’t know how they feel about Harris; what did the polls for the Philly suburbs say when she was still in the race?
(I’d be comfortable with either one as a serious, capable POTUS if Biden dies or is impeached; for me, this is the most important consideration.)
I just don’t see any significant gains among Trump voters - those who are left are true believers. And it’s not just the suburban polls that count - it’s turnout among the base and whether Trump’s base is less motivated. So - getting the highest possible turnout in Philadelphia is just as if not more important for this particular election.
And this is being over thought a bit - people vote the top of the ticket.
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That’s certainly true, but the VP choice can give validation for a voter who is having some qualms. This can make a difference at the margins.
Which means you have to decide whether there’s a larger number of people who previously voted for Trump and are currently undecided about him and persuadable with a veep choice- or whether you want to motivate the 30% of your base that voted for Sanders or the huge African American vote that propelled Biden’s victory in a time of greater voter suppression efforts.
I just don’t see that math working in favor of your position in this election. People who have left Trump have made that decision and already have the Dem candidate most like to appeal to them.
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I don’t have to decide anything; I’m not on a campaign staff, and all the candidates I liked best have dropped out.
I just don’t see that math working in favor of your position in this election.
Again, not my position, but it is something that the Biden campaign has to consider with just as much seriousness as they consider the idea of attracting any other sector of the electorate.
I agree that getting people who would normally vote for you get to the polls is important, but I also think getting people who would normally go to the polls to vote for you is also important. The question of which group is highest priority is a calculation Biden now has to make. Hopefully, with all his years of experience, he will get it right.
Well - then what is your position?
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You mean who I’d like to see as VP? I think there is enough chance that the VP pick will be President sooner rather than later that I’d like someone smart with some real administrative experience. This is more important to me than either policy positions or potential demographic draw, since I think there is broad agreement among all the potentials on the existential issues (climate, reproductive rights) and because I think control of and recovery from the pandemic will be big for the next couple of years.
Warren and Harris are both smart and both have solid administrative experience. I don’t see any advantage of Klobuchar over Harris, either in experience or in demographic appeal. Likewise Catherine Cortez Masto and Gretchen Whitmer.
If it was my choice it would probably be Tammy Duckworth; she’s really quick-witted, and kind of local to me. (Though I’m not sure what kind of President she’d make, so not the most rational of choices.)
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The only VP choice who has a chance of bringing enough progressive voters to the polls in order to make the Dems’ margin is Warren. Absent her, Biden will basically have to go all-in on single-payer universal and college tuition subsidies and an aggressive GND to get those voters. He doesn’t seem inclined to do so, and combined with his bumbling track record it doesn’t bode well.
Also, let’s be clear: as petulant and privilege-blind as they are, the BernieBros and brocialists are only a small part of the progressive movement and are an insignificant write-off in the grander scheme of things. If Biden blows it and the DNC fails yet again, the blame will fall to them and them alone rather than to the progressive voters they should be appealing to and inspiring. I’ll be holding my nose and voting for him, but I can understand why my fellow progressives might need more than his being the lesser of two evils to show up on election day.
The days when the zentrum can credibly cast progressives as being unreasonable for demanding programmes available in every other wealthy OECD country are over.
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I can’t find the link (i.e. the BBS discussion) now but someone shared this list on the BBS, just after Nov. 2016:
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just rapist scum.
sucks the dnc insists on him, since many people suffer from trauma related conditions like PTSD, and might not be able to make it out to say nice things about a known abuser.
(I am happy to talk about my electoral choices after the election, but for now I am going full Nixon and making it clear nothing is off the table unless I see a path to an executive branch not led by a sexual predator)
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Apparently. It’s a nonsensical scenario, especially since it would immediately make American activist progressives political pariahs, and practically guarantee that Warren would have to tack to the right. It’s beyond idiotic.
No, despite what disgruntled Sanders fans may imagine, it’s the Democratic primary voters who “insist” on Biden.
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NO!!!
I’d like to keep a good senator from Illinois fighting the good fight in the Senate as part of the slim majority for the time being. Besides, she’s got a baby at home. In 4 years, let’s talk then. She’s young enough to have plenty of political cycles left to consider any higher ambitions.
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