Betting site aggregator suggests likely win for Hillary in 2016


#1

[Read the post]


#2

republicans will lie, cheat, steal, and try any dirty trick to win the 2016 election. VOTE! anyone but a republican. we can’t go backwards.


#3

Um, yeah…have you seen the GOP lineup?


#4

The whole implosion of the Republican party has been both hilarious and scary at the same time and every time I get settled about the new level of cray cray they go and up the ante again.


#5

Scary’s the right word. It’s perfectly plausible that one of their lunatic candidates could become president.


#6

Oh don’t think I wouldn’t just go yep I am done and say hey MrsTobinL can you go apartment shopping in Canada while I work on selling the house.


#7

Want a good reason to hold your nose and vote for Clinton? Just imagine who President Trump would appoint to the Supreme Court.

Aside from that, I wonder why the gamblers are so thoroughly discounting Trump and Carson? There was a great deal of self-deception on the right in 2012. A Republican friend told me with complete confidence Romney was about to win in a landslide, and he was fairly typical, I think. So the question is, why the disparity? Are the polls “skewed” or are the gamblers unrealistic?


#8

Gamblers are gambling, it’s not a scientific poll. If you think something is a sure thing, there’s no payout. The bet you are looking for is someone who will win, but for whom that win isn’t an obvious conclusion to everyone else. It’s the unexpected win against the odds that pays.


#9

They are only hilarious at the presidential level. At every level below that from the Senate down to dogcatcher they have the winning gameplan.


#10

Well as I have said elsewhere they have gerrymandered themselves into such safe districts that it has allowed the crazy fringe to actually get into office. Which is both good and bad.


#11

Remember that this is still early in the circus, and you’re not the target audience They have to get the crowd revved up and rowdy and keep them involved and giving money until the primary happens and then on through the general election. Last time, Trump was the opening clown act, but there was a car-full of other clowns that had to show the Tea Party and other right-wingers that they weren’t going to have an electable candidate, so they’d have to support the machine candidate, who was Romney. This time’s been more interesting, because Scott Walker’s already gone, and Jeb! is claiming that he’s not dead yet, so it’s almost certain to be Rubio.

Nate Silver’s crew have produced some interesting work that shows that the primary mechanisms are much more friendly to the moderate candidates than to the fringe, so Carson’s going to end up kicked a ways down the pyramid once the primaries start, along with Cruz and probably Trump. I’m sure Clinton’s doing as much as she can to get Trump as her opponent, but the machine and even the Tea Party aren’t that dumb.


#12

The machine yes, the Tea Party I wouldn’t be so sure. Look at who they’ve already elected.


#13

Oh I know. But gamblers tend to be more accurate than any other indicator. I’m just wondering if this is a counterexample, or what’s going on.


#14

Bernie supporters better hurry up and start placing bets on him to raise his odds.

“C’mon people, get involved!!”


#15

Well that sucks…her voting record and campaign supporters are almost identical to jeb bush. She was republican up until she switched sides but she never switched ideologies. She is the horse the entrenched establishment is betting on for sure, America cannot have another president like her.

If a bush or clinton wins the election it is basically admitting to the rest of the world that democracy in the USA is farce and is completely broken.

I hope Sanders can win and offer the people some real hope.


#16

The headline is extremely misleading. 53% chance is not a “likely win;” it’s a coin-toss. More accurate would be: “Betting site aggregator says Hillary has a 53% chance of becoming the Democratic nominee and winning the election. It says there is 40% chance that the Republican nominee will win.”


#17

#18

Yeah, well… problem is the Republicans are fucking dominating at the state level. They’ve got unified control of way more state legislatures and a majority of the governor’s mansions. So, when it comes time to redraw the maps for districts, the gerrymandering could to get even more fierce. It is basically impossible for the Dems to put much of a dent in the Republican house majority right now. If Democrats don’t start doing better at the state level in the next four years… expect that to continue in the 2020s. Sure, national demographics may favor them for the presidency going forward, based on their coalition, but both sides have things to be concerned about. And if I have to choose, I’d personally rather have congress and the state houses than the presidency when trying to go forward with a domestic agenda.


#20

The interesting thing is they think Trump is as good a bet for the general election as Rubio (~40%). I’m not sure how to feel about that.

I suspect they’re banking on the idea that Trump’s ability to attract the fringes will make up for his toxicity to moderates. Still I feel like they’re underestimating just how vacuous his campaign is. I’m not sure his appeal will hold up when he’s the only Republican voice and voters actually have to evaluate what he’s saying.


#21

These odds make me want to bet on Trump. [shiver]