Gonna suggest this channel again for a good explainer with what is going on with Brexit and UK politics:
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I vaguely wondered if Ruth Davidson might take the opportunity to escape her seat in Holyrood and make a move on number 10, to be presented as a sort of Tory version of a ‘reasonable’ and/or ‘unifying’ figure? Because the FSM alone knows how the Conservatives can possibly hope to hold the Union together if Johnson gets in or the Moggs of this land get any more obvious grip on power…
But then I expect that Davidson actually WOULD rather stay in Scotland, and support for Indy isn’t really growing that much, so I’m probably way off.
Oof. Interesting times.
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I don’t know enough about the history of large political issues in the UK to really know, but Brexit seems if not unique, at least amazingly unusual and certainly unique in my lifetime.
While things like the Corn Laws, Irish Home Rule or The Troubles had various possible resolutions debated, at least the groups involved were agreed on their own views.
With Brexit, ask members of the same damn party what they want and you’ll get completely different answers.
This is what baffles in terms of trying to predict what will happen because you can more or less guarantee that any leader who says they will “deliver Brexit” will be called a traitor by at least two thirds of the very people that put them in office to deliver Brexit.
So not only has Brexit split Labour and Conservative along Leave and Remain, it’s also split Leave at least four ways between Norway, Canada++, CM/CU and no deal. Nigel Farage is still talking about Article 24 for crap’s sake!
Meanwhile, the only option that coalesces the most voters is (logically) remain. Yet there parties who support that are fragmented for different reasons.
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I can’t believe I’m writing this, but Boris is the least worst of the current crop of hopefuls. I’m showing my workings.
He’s a social liberal - (in comparison to others)
He’s not an ideologue - In fact he’s a political chameleon, which allows for flexibility in approach.
Despite the buffoonery, he’s bright.
He hates Trump.
That’s all I have, but that’s better than the Dunning/Kruger effect in human form Leadsom, Rabb, Gove and Hunt represent.
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Yeah yeah, sure sure. But is there a chance he can cut a Brexit deal that would actually be accepted? Because that is the particular gross, slimy string that comes with this PM gig, this time around.
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I view that as a good thing. Remain support is spread across left and right, libertarian to authoritarian, a good sampling of Britain. The only vocal leave support I hear is from tankies and reactionary authoritarians, and I don’t think the tankies would be significant if it wasn’t for Corbyn.
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A couple of weeks of back-stabbing stitch ups and the UK will have yet another Prime Minister they didn’t vote for who may or may not be capable of delivering Brexit.
They should just call the whole thing off, but they won’t.
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Well, no.
But he is certainly one of the few people I could imagine genuinely being hubristic enough to think being PM is worth it.
And arguably at this point, any Conservative PM would be sensible to just call off further talks about the withdrawal agreement, let us crash out, blame any problems on Theresa May and Labour, take credit for any minor gleams of hope and crack on with negotiating the future trading relationship - which apparently everyone is dead keen on.
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Really? I thought he’s on record as saying he admires Trump.
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Or we could not crash out; otherwise I agree. It’s the Westminster blame game anyway.
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Tangentially: this came across my Twitter feed today.
Someone pointed out the relevance, given June coming at the end of May.
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Who’s up for turning the Houses of Parliament into a manure store?
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I thought it was already full…?
But yeah, why not?
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That would be nice but clearly Parliament is entirely unable to get its act together to agree on anything so unless we get a PM and cabinet that is prepared to say “You know what, we don’t actually need your approval” and sign a deal anyway, we’re sort of stuck.
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I suspect she would be more palatable to non-Tories but I agree she would rather stay in Scotland.
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God no.
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The Cabinet clearly hate each other at this point; there’ll be a new one, eager to follow the gravy train as far as they can. All it takes is one sacrificial lamb and we’re sorted. Throw them under the Brexit bus and blame everyone who came before. It’s what they’ve always done, why change tactics now? No more Brexit, and a chance to renegotiate a new set of trade deals from a position of relative stability rather than begging to be let back in with nothing to offer except panic and a fragmenting Ireland.
Or, crash and burn and watch the economy tank even further with thousands more job losses.
Do we have any politicians stupid enough to let that happen? Discuss…
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Honestly I think the best tactic any new tory leader can choose is to immediately call a general election and campaign so badly that they lose, then tell Labour ‘It’s your problem now’.
Anything else will probably tear the party apart, leaving the path open to a Farage led fascist party or some other similar evil.
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In this essay I shall assert that we do have politicians stupid enough to allow us to crash out of the EU even at the risk of thousands of job losses and tanking the economy.
I will seek to demonstrate that the Conservative party is trapped in a mutually abusive relationship in which their survival as a political party depends on appealing to a group of the electorate which will never vote for them but which the Conservatives believe they cannot afford to alienate further… [continues for another 6,080 words]
That’d work. Except that’s sort of what David Cameron had in mind and got us into this mess in the first place. Whatever they said about Brexit might be enough to garner them just enough votes to be in government (while not actually having enough votes to do anything)
I suppose one could just take no position on Brexit - except that’s what Corbyn’s already doing so that ground’s already taken…
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Or have a caretaker PM who calls it off, then a new Tory leader within weeks. The Tories are going down anyway, so two quick PMs in sequence, second No Confidence vote triggers the General Election, then a clear board with Farage no more field to play on.
It might result in another Conservative government, but it will be a Euro-positive one.
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