citation please.
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Gallup’s polls are Republican leaning, but not overly so. 538 gives them a B rating with a Republican lean of 0.8.
The issue is that this is being seen as a wider trend. There is about a 8.5% gap in Trump’s approval/disapproval rating across 538’s poll average. It has been climbing steadily higher for a couple weeks. It might be a blip or it might be a real trend. However, his approval rating (according to 538’s average of polls) is now higher than it has been since March 15, 2017.
Edit: The bigger questions are, now that impeachment is over with is what Trump’s ceiling is, and is it enough to build an electoral college map similar to what he did in 2016. The approval polls give some insight into that, but it’s unclear how it will play out at a state level. The homophobic Iowa caucus goer does not give me confidence though.
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Any discussion of 50% of the american people needs to keep in mind that it is an uninformed group that doesn’t pay attention to politics. Less than 15% of americans read a newspaper regularly (print or online). Less than 15% watch TV news. Those 2 groups are largely overlapping and mostly over 50.
Most americans get their news as a social aside that they aren’t paying attention to other than as a casual fan (do we root for the same team? is our team winning?). The majority of voters could not give any more detail than the dems in the house voted for impeachment and the senate said he did nothing wrong
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Virtual hug on it’s way, hang in there Dudette.
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Theoretically possible, but incredibly difficult to pull off on a large scale because the polling is done by independent organizations and there are many that conduct polling (not just Gallup). While Gallup might be getting the true number wrong, the wider trend across many polls and pollsters is that Trump’s approval has slowly crept upward.
My feeling on this is that polls today don’t have that much impact on polls 6 months from now. People wringing their hands over this are probably over-reacting.
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Impeachment and the subsequent sham of a Senate “trial” didn’t cause the problem, they merely exposed the extent of the problem.
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Sickening.
If this fucker wins re-election I am out of here by any means necessary.
a couple of these routes will help.
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I didn’t make the comment, but I’ll hazard a guess. I have only voted for Democrats since I was able to vote back in 1983. I hope I’ll be able to vote for Bernie or Warren.
However, my immediate family all voted for Trump. My dad is a Middle-Eastern Christian who immigrated from Iraq and my my mom is third generation Polish-American. They met in in college in the sixties and had three kids. The KKK would not approve of any of this. And yet, they all voted for Trump because they feel the Democrats tax them too much and don’t like immigration that doesn’t occur through official channels. They are also Catholics who don’t like abortion.
I’m not trying to justify their views. I think they are wrong and we have had it out over politics many times (Thanksgiving is a blast). But, if you wanted to appeal to them (and perhaps Democrats don’'t want that) lumping them in with the KKK not going to help formulate an message that would persuade them.
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According to info I found that wasn’t in the linked file, the polling sample here had 527 Republicans and 443 Democrats, so it was biased towards Republicans. And even with that bias, he only got to 49%.
https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/284270/200204Political.pdf
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We’ve given Trump:
- Demonstrable proof that the Senate will not remove him regardless of his actions, coverups, or lies.
- Demonstrable proof that when confronted, his poll numbers go up.
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I have no hope left. This tool has destroyed my country, my sanity, and actual freedom
If he actually gets reelected, I think I will just walk into the ocean. Nothing matters anymore. They don’t care about science, truth, or anything rational. Its just a bunch of brainless hateful amoebas running things now
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that’s all I got for ya, I’m afraid.
It might reflect the artificially depressed nature of his popularity to begin with(?) That is, many people are usually ashamed to admit they support him, all the more so when he is on trial for bribery/extortion/abuse of power. With the impeachment cloud lifted, their latent approval is more easily evinced. And perhaps there is some effect where low-information fence-sitting citizens believe this, like the Mueller Report, is “an exoneration.”
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One thing I always wondered about regarding political polls is whether polling companies do anything to account for people just lying.
I mean, in our super-hyper-partisan world, what incentive to people have to give their honest opinion to pollsters.
If you self identify as a right-wing conservative and a pollster asks “Do you think Trump is doing a good job?”, wouldn’t you say “yes” regardless of what you really thought; if only to “stick it to the libs”?
Do pollsters do anything to account for this, like fudging the result, or some statistical tricks that I can’t think of? Or do they just report what people say at face value (which would seem to have little value these days).
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Confidence intervals.
Statistics - done well - doesn’t produce a number, it produces a range. For example, “We are 95% certain that support for Trump this month lies within a range of 46-49%, compared to last month when it was 95% between 43-47%.”
Unfortunately, what gets reported is “Support for Trump up 3%!”, wilfully ignoring the fact that, statistically, .95:46-49 and .95:43-47 are the same.
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Yeah, I guess what I’m trying to get at here is that the range of high and low approval ratings that Trump has over the last three years is much, much less than previous presidents (of both parties).
Presidents used to get 20, 30, 40 or more percent swings over their presidency depending on things they did (or just the things that happen outside of their control). But for Trump that just doesn’t happen. He’s been sitting in the same 10 point band for pretty much the whole past three years. And I’m just trying to figure that out.
So yeah, I get why statistically, these small moves don’t matter. But why are the moves so small was more my question (sorry for not making that clear).
And the best answer I can come up with is that people just aren’t honest when they answer the approval rating poll question anymore. They’re not really saying how they feel about Trump, they’re just registering what “tribe” they belong to.
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What were the poll numbers from a few days ago favoring Trump’s impeachment?
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