Donald Trump dropped out of debate, then dropped 6 points in latest poll

Originally published at: Donald Trump dropped out of debate, then dropped 6 points in latest poll | Boing Boing


I appreciate WP giving the extra statistical context here. I wish outlets would do this more often. It seems like they only do it when it spices up a horserace (as in this case) or generally supports a more engaging possibility (or, for rags, when it fits their agenda) rather than out of principle, but it’s still good to see.


Yet he’s still their guy.


He’s going to drop some more as the prosecutions continue & if he sticks to his decision to not join the debates.

I kinda hope it means that we end up with Ron as their nominee. He’s a terrible candidate, doesn’t appeal to whatever swing voters are left and is very unlikeable.


I’m most surprised that Ramaswamy dropped. I thought he’d pick up 5% or more as a trump clone. But the reality is that trump has broken polling. There are aspects of his character that just don’t seem to predictably translate to the way we’ve conducted polling and elections. Perhaps a trump clone merely comes off as smarmy and weaselly because there can really only be one charismatic messiah figure and all that leaves him is his repugnance.

So the scenarios here are basically that trump has a few ups and downs, but handily carries the primaries or that someone else like Haley or Scott rises and secures the nomination on points, but trump loyalists refuse to support/endorse/vote for them and the GQP vote is fully fractured. I honestly don’t think they can get many swing votes with trump and can’t get trump voters with anyone but trump. It’s a real pickle!


Probably also relevant that this particular Trump clone isn’t white, and the most brainlessly loyal Trump voters are also the most racist. But Trump’s celebrity history and fawning free media exposure for the last 40 years also helps. Ramaswamy certainly wasn’t a name I knew before this race.


He’s still a brown candidate in the Republican Party. Only white guys get to be loud and obnoxious.


Glad Ramaswamy actually lost support following the debate. From what it sounded like, he was just aggressively pandering and not offering much of anything. By that I mean he offered less in terms of governance than a candidate usually does and basically said, “You like Trump? I’ll be like Trump for you but not convicted of any crimes.” And that’s it.


Season 4 Drinking GIF by Power


As a opinion poll skeptic (well 67% skepticism with a MOE: 3.1%) i have to make a frustrated face over the Ramaswamy results of the debate. Here’s from Michelle Goldberg’s column this morning:

The Washington Post, FiveThirtyEight and Ipsos polled likely Republican primary voters before and after last week’s debate. Following his performance, Ramaswamy’s favorability rating rose from 50 percent to 60 percent, even though his unfavorability rating rose even more, from 13 percent to 32 percent.

i confess to utter callowness that i thought “Favorability” and “Unfavorability” to be zero sum binary survey items; that is, when one goes up the other goes down. But you (sensibly) tell me that Ramaswamy’s rise in both favorability and unfavorability came at the cost of some hidden(?) I-dunno/Undecided/Unsure category, according to the above shifting 29% from …somewhere. Yet i will foollishly blather that therefore ‘Undecided’ ought to appear on any favorability chart with its own uncertainty added along (“I doesn’t know what it is I’m unclear about!”). Chart snatched off of 538 site:


As an opinion poll non-sceptic (at least when interpreted as snapshots of opinion rather than some kind of momentum-generating nonsense) I entirely agree there should be an undecided/no opinion report, especially at an early stage in an open primary. When non-nationally prominent candidates appear they normally have very low favourable and unfavourable ratings, and so a +4%, say, for one of these candidates is very different from a +4% for someone with complete name recognition.


[expletive delted] is in a weird spot. His core cultist base is sticking with him (so far), but he has no way to get more. It’s not like there’s a huge electorate out there undecided about him. There is only downside for him from this point on, and he has to hope he can hold enough to force his opponents out. He has to clinch the nomination early, before his legal troubles get too deep.

I would make a wager that if he a) does not get the nomination for some reason and b) is not in jail, he will run third party. There is no option for him to go home.


Neither is trump. :rofl::joy::rofl:

But seriously, folks. That’s also why my suggestion of Haley or Scott was qualified with a “nomination on points”, because there is zero chance they carry more than their home states, but may end up with a plurality simply by being on the ballot and picking up a “reasonable” conservative vote here and there. That’s how it was for Biden until SC. But as far as a candidate? Forget it.


At a guess, many people were unwilling to admit (even to themselves) that they were going to have an unfavorable view of him because of his race (even though it was obvious from his last name), but once they SAW him, his dark complexion colored their view of his performance in the debate.


Might also generate surface support for him. People are entirely glad to hold him up to demonstrate their open-mindedness, but in practice, they’ll never put him in any real position of influence.


“…but not convicted of any crimes yet.


similar to @cannibalpeas point about Haley and Scott above, it’s the less rabid of the base that even feel like they need that. Ramaswamy is chasing the true Trump fringe, they’re not so much for fig leaves.


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