(source NYT)
Inside the Minds of Swing Voters
No. 1 concerns
How will undecided Americans choose between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump — or decide to vote for neither — in the final six weeks of the campaign?
To better understand these voters’ thinking, my colleagues and I added an open-ended question to the most recent Times/Siena College poll in which we asked people to name their biggest concern about each candidate. In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain the results.
Trump’s temperament
We define swing voters as the roughly 18 percent of likely voters who say they haven’t yet made a firm decision. Some describe themselves as undecided, while others say they’re leaning toward one candidate but open to changing their mind.
(All the numbers in today’s newsletter come from a poll of three swing states — Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. But I’ve analyzed a similar question in a nationwide poll conducted by YouGov and The Economist, and the themes were similar.)
Swing voters’ biggest concern about Trump, by far, is his temperament. “He’s unwilling to admit that he’s been wrong about anything,” said a white woman under age 30 who has a bachelor’s degree. A middle-aged Hispanic woman without a degree said, “My biggest concern is about the way he handles himself.”
Many of the responses were withering. People called him — and I’m using their exact words here — emotional, impulsive, reckless, unstable, unhinged, childish, arrogant, disrespectful, narcissistic, selfish, rude, chaotic and erratic. Overall, 35 percent of swing voters said that his personality was their biggest concern about him:
Note: People who did not answer or gave another response are not shown. Source: Times/Siena College poll By The New York Times
As you can see in the chart, we treated honesty as a separate category, and it was the second most common concern about Trump. Some people cited his lies. Others said he was racist or sexist or mostly looked out for the wealthy. Still others doubted his ability to the job, saying he was too old. “He’s not as dynamic,” said a white man over 65 from Arizona. “His ideas and his behavior is strange.”
Unhappiness with Trump’s personal behavior was far more common than concerns about his proposed policies. To put it another way, a meaningful slice of Americans dislike Trump as a person while liking some of his record, such as the economy’s performance before Covid and his toughness on immigration and trade.
This pattern helps explain why many Republicans believe Trump would have a comfortable lead in the polls if only he would act more normally.
Harris’s policies
The concerns about Harris are different. Her personality was also the most cited area of concern, but by a much smaller share of voters than mentioned Trump’s personality. And the worries about her were often vaguer.
“I don’t think she’s got it all together,” said an older white man in Arizona. Some voters said they didn’t think she seemed serious or intelligent. Others explicitly questioned whether a woman could succeed as president or alluded to stereotypes tied to gender, such as whether she could “hold up under the strain.” It’s hard to know exactly how Harris can address these concerns, especially since the poll was conducted after her forceful debate this month.
But many other voters have more concrete questions about Harris’s candidacy. The share who cited specific policy areas was much larger than the share who raised such questions about Trump.
Note: People who did not answer or gave another response are not shown. Source: Times/Siena College poll By The New York Times
Some called her too liberal. (Although some swing voters worry that Trump is an authoritarian, few describe his policy views as too conservative.)
Two of the biggest areas of concern are the high inflation and surging immigration while she has been vice president. “Economic collapse and open borders,” said a Black woman in Georgia between 45 and 64 with a bachelor’s degree. A small percentage of other voters mentioned an issue other than the economy or immigration, including Harris’s support for Israel and her liberal stance on gender issues.
Then there are those voters who say they simply don’t know enough about Harris. “She doesn’t know how she plans to run the country because she doesn’t give straight answers,” said a white woman between 45 and 64. “She has been directly asked questions and deflected,” said a Hispanic woman in the same age group. “She’s politically vague,” said an Asian man under 30.
The Harris campaign has seen similar polling results, which helps explain the economic speech that Harris gave in Pittsburgh yesterday. It contained clearer themes than many of her previous remarks on the economy. It was also decidedly moderate, as my colleague Jim Tankersley explained. “Look, I am a capitalist,” Harris said.
Until recently, Harris has often chosen to say less rather than more about her agenda. Swing voters remain eager to hear more.
