Gods these fucking âundecided votersâ on CNN right now. This one guy is like âpro choice right to life blah blah donât think I can support Kamala but I dunno about Trumpâ. JFC people.
Another prognosticator, who Iâm only posting about in the interest of maintaining/inspiring hope:
Fortunately, one of the hats I wear other than political columnist is election outcome predictor, and Iâm fairly good at it. Iâve correctly predicted the winner, and the outcomes in 48 of the 50 states, three presidential elections in a row now.
So letâs do this. My prediction (issued on September 21) is:
Kamala Harris: 319 electoral votes, Donald Trump 219.
At this point, it would take a heck of an âOctober surpriseâ to change the trajectory. Weâre down to two closely related factors.
Those factors: Turnout and early voting, both of which he sees favoring Harris.
Fingers crossed heâs right.
Already boinged:
Something that hasnât gotten nearly as much coverage as the presidential race is the fight for control of the House, and thatâs going to be pretty consequential no matter who wins the presidency. If recent polls are to be believed thatâs going to be just as much of a toss-up as the presidential race.
I was listening to a podcast interview with a Democratic political strategist who was making a point that I hadnât really thought much about. The pathway to taking back control of the House largely runs through California and New York electing more Democratic representatives in competitive districts, because there are a lot of âgettableâ seats and there are just so many representatives that come from those states. However (in her view at least) the party leadership in those states really doesnât have its act together and isnât currently set up to win national races. Itâs a foregone conclusion that both states will come out majority blue in the general election, so the state partyâs energy and focus has gone to the primaries in all the recent election cycles.
So anyway, thatâs making me think more about what I can do as a Californian that might have some influence on our local House races.
The Nebraska Senate race has apparently tightened up. The problem isâŚthe Democratic Party didnât field a candidate this year. Apparently, early on, they decided to throw their support behind an Independent, Dan Osborn, and he had allegedly initially agreed to accept that support. Democrats are sometimes still really stupid because he pulled a Lucy and pulled the football away, rejecting the Democratic Partyâs endorsement when they formally extended it. He seems to actually be a Libertarian, having considered running as the Libertarian candidate before deciding to run as an Independent. Anyway, it looks like he might win. But that wonât necessarily be a win for Democrats because he hasnât said which party heâll caucus with if he wins.
â this filing marks the first time that the McMahons have been named personally as defendants. It also directly ties Linda, the co-chair of Donald Trumpâs 2024 transition team, to the alleged cover-up of child sexual abuse at a time when far-right influencers are trying to gin up fabricated pedophilia allegations against Trump rival and Democratic Party running mate Tim Walz.â
If I understand correctly, the law requires a warning prior to charges being filed. Thatâs the warning.
Tucker Carlson at Turning Point.
The crowd chanted Daddyâs Home when trump took the stage.
There has to be a point at which Dad comes home. Yeah, thatâs right. Dad comes home. And heâs pissed. Dad is pissed.
âHeâs not vengeful. He loves his children. Disobedient as they may be, he loves them, because theyâre his children. They live in his house. But heâs very disappointed in their behavior. And heâs going to have to let them know.â
He added: âWhen Dad gets home, you know what he says? âYouâve been a bad girl. Youâve been a bad little girl, and youâre getting a vigorous spanking right now. And no, itâs not going to hurt me more than it hurts you. No, itâs not. Iâm not going to lie. Itâs going to hurt you a lot more than it hurts me. And you earned this.ââ