Elections 2023 and 2024 (Part 2)

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Gods these fucking “undecided voters” on CNN right now. This one guy is like “pro choice right to life blah blah don’t think I can support Kamala but I dunno about Trump”. JFC people.

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Another prognosticator, who I’m only posting about in the interest of maintaining/inspiring hope:

Fortunately, one of the hats I wear other than political columnist is election outcome predictor, and I’m fairly good at it. I’ve correctly predicted the winner, and the outcomes in 48 of the 50 states, three presidential elections in a row now.

So let’s do this. My prediction (issued on September 21) is:

Kamala Harris: 319 electoral votes, Donald Trump 219.

At this point, it would take a heck of an “October surprise” to change the trajectory. We’re down to two closely related factors.

Those factors: Turnout and early voting, both of which he sees favoring Harris.

Fingers crossed he’s right.

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Already boinged:

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Something that hasn’t gotten nearly as much coverage as the presidential race is the fight for control of the House, and that’s going to be pretty consequential no matter who wins the presidency. If recent polls are to be believed that’s going to be just as much of a toss-up as the presidential race.

I was listening to a podcast interview with a Democratic political strategist who was making a point that I hadn’t really thought much about. The pathway to taking back control of the House largely runs through California and New York electing more Democratic representatives in competitive districts, because there are a lot of “gettable” seats and there are just so many representatives that come from those states. However (in her view at least) the party leadership in those states really doesn’t have its act together and isn’t currently set up to win national races. It’s a foregone conclusion that both states will come out majority blue in the general election, so the state party’s energy and focus has gone to the primaries in all the recent election cycles.

So anyway, that’s making me think more about what I can do as a Californian that might have some influence on our local House races.

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The Nebraska Senate race has apparently tightened up. The problem is…the Democratic Party didn’t field a candidate this year. Apparently, early on, they decided to throw their support behind an Independent, Dan Osborn, and he had allegedly initially agreed to accept that support. Democrats are sometimes still really stupid because he pulled a Lucy and pulled the football away, rejecting the Democratic Party’s endorsement when they formally extended it. He seems to actually be a Libertarian, having considered running as the Libertarian candidate before deciding to run as an Independent. Anyway, it looks like he might win. But that won’t necessarily be a win for Democrats because he hasn’t said which party he’ll caucus with if he wins.

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“ this filing marks the first time that the McMahons have been named personally as defendants. It also directly ties Linda, the co-chair of Donald Trump’s 2024 transition team, to the alleged cover-up of child sexual abuse at a time when far-right influencers are trying to gin up fabricated pedophilia allegations against Trump rival and Democratic Party running mate Tim Walz.”

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If I understand correctly, the law requires a warning prior to charges being filed. That’s the warning.

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Tucker Carlson at Turning Point.

The crowd chanted Daddy’s Home when trump took the stage.

There has to be a point at which Dad comes home. Yeah, that’s right. Dad comes home. And he’s pissed. Dad is pissed.

“He’s not vengeful. He loves his children. Disobedient as they may be, he loves them, because they’re his children. They live in his house. But he’s very disappointed in their behavior. And he’s going to have to let them know.”

He added: “When Dad gets home, you know what he says? ‘You’ve been a bad girl. You’ve been a bad little girl, and you’re getting a vigorous spanking right now. And no, it’s not going to hurt me more than it hurts you. No, it’s not. I’m not going to lie. It’s going to hurt you a lot more than it hurts me. And you earned this.’”

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