I wonder about this part:
(the census defines non-religious as the percentage of a county’s population that does not show up on the rolls of any religious organization in that county)
There are lots of churches that lost members or shut down because of the pandemic, too. If they don’t include people who aren’t members or who attend virtual services, that could lead to under-counting. I have a lot of family members that do this in states far from where they live, instead of attending locally in person.