You are awesome, and thanks.
6 Likes
So glad I get to vote by mail, and so angry that people in other states have to put up with nonsense like this.
12 Likes
3 Likes
Nah, I have it on good authority (from a trolling opinion, you might say) that itâs the Trump voters who are the REAL victims of voter suppression! /s
8 Likes
5 Likes
Trend line adjustment is a real thing, and is more accurate than the raw data. Nate Silver doesnât just pull this out of his ass. Not sure why people donât know this.
Thatâs not a complacency animated gif is it?^^^^^
On the plus side, November 3rd electoral projections collected on 270-to-Win all show Clinton/Kaine ahead of Trump/Pence, even in the unlikely event that Trump/Pence gains all the apparently âtoss upâ states. 266 seams to be the highest projected EV for Trump/Pence in that scenario.
If any well-off Dems are truly concerned, I will happily fly on their tab this weekend to a swing-state city that needs drivers for the polls where the DNC feels the need is greatest, as long as itâs a dry, warm and sunny swing state city. Clean driving record, low-cost insurance profile, not on no-fly list, low-risk police harassment profile.
7 Likes
Russian roulette with two chambers loaded, and the entire world facing the bullet.
Even if we survive, can anyone seriously claim that American political institutions arenât catastrophically, dangerously broken?
12 Likes
This is what it looks like when anything could happen:
That was Bush vs. Kerry in 2004.
And this is what it looks like when one guy is getting the snot beat out of him:
Remember everybody laughing at Fox News for thinking Romney had a chance?
And here, now, 3½ days until itâs finally over, is Clinton vs. Trump:
Looks to me like Clinton is doing OK.
7 Likes
Three-chamber revolver, one hollow-point bullet.
I base this analogy on FiveThirtyEightâs current polls-plus forecast (see above) and the likely consequences of a Trump presidency.
makes me glad Im up in the northern burbs. Got to the early voting place, had to circle the parking lot once to find a space (horrors), parked, walked in and had 4 people in front of me.
Only thing that was a bit of confusion were a few positions that werenât on the sample ballot, but that was a quick googling
5 Likes
7 Likes
This election keeps delivering on its shitshow. Trump gets pulled by secret service hears a guy shout gun, that asshole in Nevada actively complaining about people voting, Kaine is complaining about the FBI who may or may not spurred Comeyâs ridiculous letter by leaking information left and right to influence the election, Fox News is reporting Trump investing $1.8 million into a company known for voter fraud, and some guy on huffpo thinks Nate Silver using the analysis half of data analysis is bad.
At this point whoever wins internet media will be permanently worsened by the election covered and the need to always have the next controversy to report regardless of source or facts.
6 Likes
On the plus side, we only have, what, 70 hours left of this shit?
12 Likes
Surely once the polls close everything will go back to normal. Couldnât imagine how things might turn into a sustained, ugly, ludicrous political mega-drama regardless of the outcome of the vote.
12 Likes
Itâs going to be
8 Likes
4 Likes
Interesting to watch a fight between Nicolas Falacci (not a mathematician, but an important math popularizer) and Nate Silver (also not a mathematician). Silver is correct that the states are not independent, and if HuffPo etc believes that they are then that is certainly a major problem with their models.
ETA: By the way, hereâs my favorite discussion today of the election odds, mainly because of the split-screen. FWIW, Sam Sang is also not a mathematician.
Thatâs the plus side?!? Thatâs more like put on your brown pants and brace for impact!
5 Likes
