It is very interesting to follow this is as an outsider. A bounty of interesting news in addition to the current troubles in EU.
The whole system of how you appoint Supreme court judges seems suspect. I think it is untenable that the ruling party can stack the courts with favorable judges whenever they are in power. As pointed out by others, the democrats can only blame themselves for making this even easier (simple majority) in the current situation.
It is also quite comical to see a recent expatriate like Doctorow to adopt American Democrat/Republican false dichotomy so fast and buy in to the whole deal like you see here. It’s clearly realpolitiks instead of real enthusiasm for the Democrats in order to get rid of Trump, but it is a poor platform to gain voters from when the opposition is so passionate. Besides the Democrats being very much like a poor man’s leftist party, looking from the outside I do think the rest of the world can sigh contently every time American influence decreases.
To me it also seems likely that Trump will win a second term:
I haven’t seen less of the energy of his fans on the Internet. He has an army of unpaid and relentless activists influencing the voters. They love their God Emperor and their tactics and strategy have only have been honed from the last election.
He is quite close to Obama in voter approval:
He is keeping his campaign promises very well for a populist:
The whole thing is only amplified by the loss of trust in the institutions (police, courts. education etc) of your country. I think this predicts that the people will appoint what is perceived to be a strong leader, which usually means a populist like Trump. The liberals of USA seem to be only stoking the flames here and polarizing the population further, but don’t have their own answer.
I would also point out that Ruth Bader Ginsburg will probably retire or die during Trump’s first or the likely second term. Even if she is cancer-free (likely at this point) from colon and pancreatic cancer, she is clearly a very frail. Frailty is a definite mortality risk factor for an 85 year old.
Taking this into account, I think it is very likely that conservatives will have a 6-3 majority as judges in a few years.
Honestly, I grew up on civility at all cost it was ingrained in me at all points in my life in Boy Scouts in college in Japan everywhere.
Civility is what we want the world to be but not what it is.
Honestly I say burn down every aspiration of the Republican Party on this with a figurative sea of Molotov cocktails and flamethrowers. These people created new precedent in denying a sitting president the right to appoint a Justice. That seat is stolen. At this point fuck civility in the ass with a glass Shard encrusted dildo. Deny these assholes the same way they did others to make the point clear that this never happens again and decorum and civility come back at all costs.
Republicans are not going to stop violating any standard or law or precedent or decency they can find literally every day and the people who say the craziest shit in public at this point prove this. They are the party of power at all costs regardless of who suffers but their leaders.
Shove some of their bullshit back down their own throats until they choke on it.
Exactly. This is terrible news for the midterms because we can’t count on a depressed GOP vote now that the future of the court is on the line. The current suggested timeline I’ve seen puts confirmation after the election, making this a real motivator for conservative turnout… The slim chance of a democrat controlled senate just got even more remote.
On another note… I do agree with the sentiment that the Schumer/Pelosi model of “playing fair” or whatever is a recipe for the death of the republic. The GOP will not return the favor, so why bother? The Dem’s think that they can still win the “center” or take the “third way” but they don’t seem to realize that time has passed. Elections are won with strong narratives; people are not interested in hearing about rational compromise. They need to create a compelling story about why they are the true inheritors of the republic, why they are the real patriots… And they need to get dirty about creating progressive policy- break ‘norms’ if they have to.
The ancient roman senate was always hoping that the empire was just a passing phase and that at some point things would return to the normal, democratic ways… but that’s just not how it works.
Anybody who looks at the creeping fascism around us and remains moderate is just a fascist without the courage to say so. The best way to treat fencesitters is to electrify the fence.
It’s pretty mind-blowing that with potential indictments on the way from the Mueller investigation, Trump will get to appoint someone that will likely be a key decision maker on whether he can pardon himself, be indicted, etc.
What I especially “love” is how the pundits are all like, “well, Harry Reid started this whole mess when he used the nuclear option in 2013! Thanks for making America great again!”…
… as if Republicans wouldn’t have used the nuclear option anyway in 2016 to confirm Gorsuch after robbing Obama of his nomination because “oh we can’t have a nomination during an election year”…
… which is really rich given how Kennedy was confirmed during Reagan’s last year in office.
That progressives keep dwelling on this narrative drives me nuts. Complain all you want about the process, Gorsuch is not horrible, at least yet, I don’t understand freaking out until consistently bad votes start actually happening. That Garland would have voted same as Gorsuch’s important winning vote in the recent cell phone 4th amendment case, much less writing his own opinion that goes farther than the majority, is a bet I absolutely would not take. I don’t trust Gorsuch on abortion, but republicans put a justice on the bench who is skeptical of police powers- recognize an own goal when you see one.
And I don’t understand the aggressive war stance before we’ve even seen a short list.
Even though the centre in UK is to the left of the US, the UK has the same problem, and I suspect many others do too. UK Tories ALWAYS prioritise party loyalty and survival over ANY internal dispute. Brexit is close to testing that, but has not broken it yet. The ‘left’ (= less right, in US) is always a coalition of interests and a broad church of ideas willing to defend the ideas first. The right has internal differences as well, over many ideas, but always prioritises itself first and foremost.
Solve this conundrum (proportional representation?) and some progress may be possible, but otherwise … 'twas ever thus and 'twill ever be so.
I don’t see “moderate” as being immediately just to the right of “extreme left” with nothing else between the two. And a wide net to me means a smart net which can capture the left – period – and the other groups I mentioned earlier. Here’s one example: Abortion rights. Kennedy’s retirement is a gift to mid-term Dem strategists; there are more women voters than men, and most women are in favor of those rights. That’s just one of the drumbeat, rallying calls possible for the ‘electrification’ required. I believe that common-to-most issues are the key. The left is already super-angry and energized (and must be reminded of why they’re angry right up to the mid-terms), but trying to put together a smart strategy while angry (and just for the already angry) is not a way to go, in my opinion.
Actually, there is one way I know of. The Senate needs a quorum to do business. That’s 51 senators. If all Dem senators leave town, all it would take is for one McCain (too sick to come vote) or one of a couple GOP women to not be present to vote. It may not work vis-à-vis McCain, and there would probably be some political price to pay at the polls, but theoretically, it’s possible. I’m not holding my breath.
Several 5-4 decisions going to the GOP during this term alone, and another ideologue almost sure to get in, let’s face it. I don’t see a Kennedy-like, swing vote, moderate Libertarian being shoved in by Trump. So I see 6-3 as more likely now in the future. I think the war stance is not unjustified; JMHO.
The alternative was for someone worse. If that’s what you wanted, whatever.
I’m happy to see justices who look like they might be reviving the crucial but dead-in-all-but-name 4th amendment. Considering the steady march of terrible news in criminal justice cases I’ll take it.
I understand that view, but if one reviews the kind of people that Trump has backed in campaigns, associated and surrounded himself with? I see his track record, and Trump has been very consistent so far. He will not have some epiphany and do what’s right. Does anyone really believe otherwise?
Seriously. Does anybody really feel Trump will put into the SC some sort of right leaning but otherwise moderate compromise candidate that can satisfy both sides?
Of course not. He’s going to jam in the most conservative right wing person possible that will advance the terrible agenda of his donors.
Or the Democrats and Republicans are just the Good Cop/Bad Cop costumes the donor class wear in the theatrical production we jokingly call “American Democracy”.
Every time someone mentions the “extreme left” in reference to American politics, I wonder who or what they are talking about? The Weathermen? Some offshoot of the Red Army Faction that escaped capture? Or people like Bernie Sanders who espouse support for mildly socialist programs like Universal Healthcare? There is no Extreme Left in this country.
