I mean, the odds of choosing four Americans and it turning out all of them have children who worked on the board of Ukrainian energy companies are very low. If N is the number of Americans who have worked on the board of a Ukrainian energy company, and we are choosing Americans over 50 (so they have a chance of having children old enough to have done so) and they all had an average of 2 children (birth rates were higher 30 years ago) then the odd would be:
Which, if N is, say 10, comes out to about three times ten to the negative 29. If one of the Americans you chose is known to have a child who did work on such a board the odds go up dramatically, but they are still so insanely unlikely that one would never believe the people were in fact chosen at random.
Of course the odds that someone could put together a panel of people who didn’t have children working for Ukranian energy companies and imply that they did are 100%.
