I think the reasons his strategy works are simple. It’s classic
demagoguary, there are library shelves full of research on this topic.
It works like this:
- He’s entertaining
- He’s different and authentic, not a “Washington insider” (or at least
succeeds in portraying himself as such
Bernie’s appeal actually works in a similar way, his appeal is that he’s
authentic and not the politicians you’ve seen before.
Of course what helps Trump the most is that the GOP has been training it’s
voters for decades to love this guy. They always say govt and politicians
are terrible (neglecting to mention that they themselves are politicians),
dogwhistle racial animus, and generally reassure people that simplistic
solutions to complex problems are obviously correct (building a wall).
The conservative mind is already naturally attracted to the idea of
certainty, to knowing the simple and perfect answer, and the GOP has
fanned this instinct for a long time. It was only a matter of time before
someone like Trump came in and took advantage.
Since he has nothing to lose, (I don’t think he’d care much at all if he
actually won which makes him even more appealing to his base) he can say
absolutely anything. He’s not worried about political economy, has no
worries about past statements coming up to ruin future political
advancement, and so he can push the heretofore much more subtle GOP
rhetoric to its extreme.
No one in the GOP can counter him. They dismissed rational arguments long
ago in discussing immigration, healthcare, etc. so they’ve got nothing to
push back with. So far the only thing holding GOP’ers back was a fear they
might say or do something which hurts them in the future when/if the tides
change. Since he doesn’t care, they can’t win.
It’s like this: Once I played poker with someone who was really good at it.
I am terrible at it. We were playing with not much money and I’d already
lost most of it. So I decided to flip the table, I refused to look at my
cards and just bet haphazardly. The other guy was flabbergasted, “You have
to look at yours cards!” he said, he insisted that one must play the game
rationally. But I refused, and won several following hands because he
couldn’t see through my obvious tells, and just didn’t know what to do. I
almost got my money back, but as the night wore on I just started going
“all-in” on everything and eventually lost due to sheer bad-luck.
Trump thus is doing well for the same reason, because he’s not playing the
game rationally. He’s not doing the dance of who can say pander the most
without going too far, and so he wins. Lately the only way you can win in
the GOP is by saying the most extreme stuff you can get away with, and
because he has nothing to lose, doesn’t need donors, and (I think) doesn’t
even care much if he wins, he’s unstoppable.
Other GOP’ers have failed at this so far I think because they actually have
principles to some extent but also just lack the charisma to convince
people they actually believe what they’re saying.
So it comes down to this:
- Self-confidence to the point where actual success is unimportant.
- The charisma to emote total certainty in any viewpoint, no matter how
extreme.
- Financial independence giving one the autonomy to do 1 and 2.
The only way to beat him is to have a charismatic opponent who can use
rationality. Trump success so far doesn’t depend on rationality (the GOP
base gave up on that long ago). Up against a Democrat I don’t think he’d
have much luck. The American public isn’t that far gone (I hope).