He has the polls on his page. Many of them. That was my point.
I was asked what polls (or “be laughed at”). I provided polls. As I expected, people didn’t like those polls, so ignored them, and only like the polls they agree with.
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Thank you for citing what you are using to base your statements upon. However, did you notice that Silver’s graph is still within the margin of error? And that the big jump for T**** has zero data points to back it up? In other words, it’s based on Silver’s gut feel. How has that gone in the past? (Narrator: Not well)
I really dislike misinformation. But disagreement isn’t vitriol. It’s not an attack.
Also, no comment on AOC’s inside read?
The reason why it’s important to know who betrayed Biden (“betrayed” was his word choice for it) is because we need to take policy action to prevent it in the future. Note that it wasn’t individual voters who betrayed him. It wasn’t you or AnthonyC or whoever. You all have every right to have preferences about who you’d like to see as president. That’s not the issue.
He was betrayed by big-money donors. In an anti-democratic step, they removed the incumbent president from the presidential race. That cannot be allowed to happen. And there are policy steps that we need to pressure lawmakers to take to prevent it in the future. Good news is, those steps are progressive policy, anyway. Limit donations to campaigns to an amount an average person can afford, and their influence melts away. Limit campaign spending and the duration of the campaign, and you limit the influence of their lapdogs in the media. It’s important to know who did this so that we can enact policy to prevent it.
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only about 1/3 of american voters are registered Democrats. You need MUCH more than just Democratic turnout for the Dems to win national elections.
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The popular vote does not equal voter turnout. 2016 was a low voter turnout year. 2020 was a very high voter turnout year.
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As of March 2024, 45 million registered voters in these areas identified themselves as Democrats. At 38.28%, Democrats represented the single largest share of registered voters in the states and territories that allow voters to indicate partisan affiliation on their registration forms.
A total of 35.7 million registered voters identified themselves as Republicans, representing 30.35% of registered voters in these areas.
A total of 32.5 million registered voters identified themselves as independents or unaffiliated with any political party. This amounted to 27.67% of registered voters in these areas.
Approximately 4.3 million registered voters identified themselves as members of other political parties. This amounted to 3.7% of registered voters in these areas.
In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden (D) received a combined 53.5% of the vote to Donald Trump’s (R) 44.7% across these states and territories. Both candidates received a larger percentage of votes than the percentage of their respective party’s registered voters.
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I have a suggestion, because the Democratic race is over. Harris has the required number of delegates. A post mortem on what happened with Biden’s campaign, and whether it should have, is worthy of discussion. Beginning on November 6. Right now, beating Trump is a lot more important. Harris will be the Democratic nominee. The party establishment is behind her. The progressive caucus is behind her. Most of the big donors are behind her. And, as far as we can tell so far, Democratic voters are energized. It’s time to stop all this bickering. Get behind Kamala and help build her up, or get out of the way.
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We can definitely squint warily at the accuracy of polling in modern times. As well as how well Nate Silver is at analyzing poll data.
But SamSam is right that the polls were not good for Biden. Was anyone looking at the polls and thinking, “He’s got this in the bag!”? And while you could find some polls putting Biden up just a little, you could find a lot showing he was down, and so It is completely reasonable for one to think that Biden could/was going to lose. I think it would be naive to think Biden’s decision wasn’t partly based on polling.
One can both think polling isn’t very accurate, but also think that the polling wasn’t especially good for Biden, and I don’t think SamSam saying that is controversial or egregious.
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HIGHLIGHTS
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As of March 2024, 45 million registered voters in these areas identified themselves as Democrats. At 38.28%, Democrats represented the single largest share of registered voters in the states and territories that allow voters to indicate partisan affiliation on their registration forms.
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A total of 35.7 million registered voters identified themselves as Republicans, representing 30.35% of registered voters in these areas.
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A total of 32.5 million registered voters identified themselves as independents or unaffiliated with any political party. This amounted to 27.67% of registered voters in these areas.
Also:
And it is exactly these young people most energized by a Harris candidacy.
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It depends what is meant by centrist.
Do you mean the moderate wing of the democratic party (center and center-right)? Third Way and Neoliberal and New Democrat ? Essentially is she pro capitalism, and for deregulation and privatization, but also for social equality?
Harris has demonstrated nothing that I would call out as third way or neoliberal.
During Harris’ presidential run she campaigned on major tax cuts for the working class, tax credits for renters and a major expansion of Medicare.
That’s squarely in the wheelhouse of both the center-left Liberal faction of the Democratic party and the Progressive faction. I think we can safely say she’s not acting like a moderate in that instance.
It’s difficult to determine what she will do when looking only at her time as VP. That office is a bit hamstrung because a good VP avoids contradicting the President. And has to find areas where either the President’s time doesn’t allow for much overlap, or has to stand behind the President in support without taking the lead.
If by centrist, you mean 95% of Democrats. Then sure. Biden, Obama, Pelosi, Schumer are also all centrists if you make the definition broad enough. But I tend to divide the party up into three main philosophies: Progressives, Liberals
(old guard), Moderates (New Democrat/Third Way). Even if they don’t differ much in policy they can differ a lot in their priorities.
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You cited Silver’s conclusion, not the polls themselves which – as @duketrout noted – varied and were all within margin-of-error territory to a degree that it’s the usual toss-up we’ve seen since at least 2000.
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All the concerned hand wringing can miss me; we have to neutralize the threat of another Tr**p term, which would basically herald the end of any semblance of a democracy that we do have.
I have no time or patience to deal with anyone who does not see the bigger priority at hand.
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That’s only true if you buy a lot of RW talking points.
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Give us your best tldr of where has the party has shifted “leftward” in a way that would alienate Hispanic and/or Latinx voters (and “independents” – you still haven’t discussed their priorities).
Then we can discuss whether it’s healthy for the Dems to find further “middle ground” with the MAGA party on those issues.
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That’s exactly how all that member’s comments in this thread read.
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Except, no, they weren’t:
There were a couple of outliers (you can see them in the Silver graph from @SamSam’s post) but there are always a couple BS outlier polls like Rasmussen and Fox. All of the polls prior to the calls for Biden to step down were within the margin of error.
The biggest shift in polling wasn’t from the debate and wasn’t from the assassination attempt; it was from the calls for Biden to step down.
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Is Silver still including Rasmussen Reports? Reputable media outlets stopped citing them a while back.
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The cited Silver aggregation was an image, so I couldn’t click the two outlier polls to find out which they were (and you know I would have).
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Blockquote Essentially is she pro capitalism, and for deregulation and privatization, but also for social equality
So, this is pretty much how I’d sum her up, which I view as “centrist”, i.e. don’t regulate business too much, keep taxes roughly where they are, control spending, and let people live their lives without discrimination - I guess I just disagree that she wasn’t the obvious establishment candidate to replace Biden who I also viewed as a centrist candidate.
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