I know…reality…ugh.
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We should not OVER estimate them either, I’d say. The reality is that they are bullies and are not exactly highly sophisticated in their tactics. It’s mostly just bluster and bullying to get their way, and throwing enormous amounts of other people’s money at elections to win. Just look at Jan 6th, and how that played out… It was not a nth level chess move. Like most other fascists, they just use violence and propaganda to get what they want. It’s really not all the smart of a set tactics, and it’s well-tread territory.
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Trump: “…or as I call her, ICKY Haley!”
MAGA Cultists: [hoot appreciatively]
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It’s true, there’s a lot of evidence for that behavior. But I think it’s also worth noting that similar inferences about Trump’s strategy were made in 2016, where he was almost surely underestimated, to our collective demise. The question I have then is if they learned their lesson from January, and if so we have to be careful.
This is also an empirical risk thing: preparing for a set of potential behaviors, some of them smart, is probably a better strategy on predicting harmful outcomes. I have a feeling though that the GOP is going to underestimate him and end up with another primary upset. We’ll see
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It isn’t coordinated. Trump is WEAK AF right now. Haley, DeSantis, and others are going to run against him because he can be defeated.
It makes zero sense to announce your run for President with the secret plan all along is to run as VP. It’s a huge waste of time, money, and other resources. If she ends up not winning primaries she may or may not throw her vote behind Trump, but I suspect it will be to who ever is the strongest runner who isn’t Trump.
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I never said otherwise. It still does not mean it was a brilliant strategy. The guy has been manipulating the media for as long as he’s been a public figure, and I’m guessing he got some great pointers during this time at NBC. They really are just using mid-century 20th century tactics to manipulate public perceptions. These strategies are well studied, understood, and have historically proven successful, from promoting the New Deal to promoting mass genocide.
But who, though? Do you mean the American people? People who support Trump or blindly support their “team” are for the most part gonna keep doing that, no matter who it hurts. They largely back the far right because they agree with their aims, or at least don’t care enough about others to not back them.
Where have you seen evidence that the GOP doesn’t want Trump or a Trump-like figure at the helm of their party. There are hundreds of Trump like laws being lined up right now in GOP dominated states to ensure that hate train keeps moving and that they stay in power, whatever the majority wants. Despite some figures in the GOP making noises about disliking Trump, I see very little in positive action on their part to purge the party of him or those like him. They LIKE the fascism. They like the pain they’re causing, is all I can come away with. 
Maybe, maybe not… I do agree with erroneous that we should not underestimate him. But mostly, we should not underestimate the appeal his policies have for much of the GOP. I don’t think you’ll get less racist, transphobic, misogynistic policies with a Haley or Desantis. They are all embracing these polices because it gets them elected.
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Something I wonder about former Trump administration toadies like Haley, who vociferously (and correctly) denounced Trump as a moral monster unfit to hold office when he first ran, were quick to suck up to him when he gained power and vociferously denounced anyone who criticized him (or dared to point out reality), and now are mildly, indirectly criticizing him as they run for office. Did they actually have a moral problem with him to begin with, but were willing and eager to sell off their morals for a little political gain, or were they just incorrectly predicting the evangelical response and going for what they thought was the easy attack? Because neither option indicates anything good about them…
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Yeh, I’d say it’s probably correct the methodology is well-established. It’s noteworthy that it was applied in a way to create a cult of personality in mostly white rural and industrial areas. Though simple in retrospect, I don’t think it was a trivial feat. Honestly I think this speaks more to Trump’s ability to surround himself with smart people than it has to do with his personal insights, but just a guess.
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It’s true that Trump has a lot of support, but I also think it’s true that he has less support in some critical ways than say mid his last term and even after the 2016 republican primary. Koch has announced they’re going to directly oppose him. I do believe (without direct evidence) that much of the “middle GOP” (the ones who are less focused on supporting fascism, but maybe what I’d call “fascism adjacent”) are wary or even tired of Trump, and there’s indirect evidence of this through the more “traditional” GOP heads (politicians and donors) not catering to him.
This I don’t think needs imply that the GOP won’t continue to pursue harmful fascist policies: in fact I’d predict that you’d see the same. What I do worry about is that, when all things considered, Trump is very dangerous on a national stage from his populist appeal.
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I’ve seen this stated over and over. But here is the thing: Is Trump’s success in 2016 in spite of his obvious faults a sign that he possesses some super-connection to the GOP hive mind that indicates an ongoing power, or was his success the result of a number of other unique factors, such as 1) his clear understanding of how to manipulate the press for free publicity, 2) his complete lack of shame and self reflection, 3) the failure of the media to properly inform the public about him and the implications of his statements, 4) the racist backlash against Obama and the white grievance of the regressive white majority who jumped on the Trump train, 5) the 20 year misogynistic campaign of the right to vilify and de-legitimize Hillary Clinton?
I’m inclined to believe that his moment has come and gone. But that doesn’t mean that his playbook is gone. There are any number of other horrible people who will use that playbook to grab for the brass ring. They live amongst us, sadly.
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Dude, that was a low blow. The man has bone spurs, how do you expect him to wear high heels.
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The exact same thing the nazis did in the 30s… target rural folks suffering from economic uncertainty afraid of the amoral urban centers. Plus, they both got support from the middle class upset by people demanding greater rights that they did not like. So, not really anything new here, either.
He’s always had a hardcore, and the backing of the party, but no where near a majority of American voters.
They’ve been making noise about how much they dislike him since day one. They will continue to line up behind him if they think he can win. And with the new round of voter suppression happening, that’s a very strong possibility. Especially as long as the media keeps downplaying the violence Trump has unleashed.
Much like we should not underestimate Trump, we should not overestimate the “backlash” to Trump.
More than enough are more focused on “winning” and eliminating trans people, and putting the boot back on the necks of Black Americans and women of all races to make whoever wins a problem. The party is rotten top to bottom at this point, and we can not trust them to all of a sudden do the “right” thing as long as they are supporting the kind of shit they are nationwide.
Yes. Doesn’t mean the GOP won’t back him if he can win. I really have seen no real evidence of that, despite some nice noise coming from some of the party.
I’m really curious why you’d think that, though?
ETA: @erroneus is the core of the current problem:
Even if they do reject Trump, they will look for another figure with a similar message and methodology. Trump was a means to an end, and he brought in all sorts of new people who now populate the party and who will not compromise. As I said, the whole party is now rotten. I don’t think they can be fixed from without, but the Christian Nationalists have to be purged from within. I see no real signs of this happening, though. They are just doubling down.
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I’m not in here in defense of it, but there is a third option (which is really a few different variations on a similar theme). Namely: “I can fix him” / “I can be the adult in the room” / “I can be a moderating influence”.
It seems plausible that several of his cabinet fell into that mold.
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That argument made more sense at the start of his administration, but the idea was demolished once it began, as people like Haley were vociferously denying reality, defending Trump and attacking his supposed “enemies.” Almost all of them really did their darnedest to enact his agenda. (It’s downright perverse that people like Barr are pretending they somehow saved democracy when they were up to their eyeballs in shady shenanigans to help Trump continue his criminality when he was in office.)
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Well, out of these four mouthfuls of diarrhea, which has the most appealing flavor?
Once upon a time (about when she had the confederate flag removed from the state capital) I thought she might be a reasonable politician acting in good faith. Now that she spent so many years acting as a toadie for fascists, I realize I was entirely mistaken.
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My thinking is that even though there is a solid base of Christian Nationalists, racists, bigots, misogynists, anti-intellectuals, and grifters who latched onto the Trump phenomenon, we have learned over the last couple election cycles that they are in the minority of voters. Sure, they should be driven from polite society. Sure, they succeeded in installing a disturbing number of right wingers into the judiciary. And they absolutely exposed that there is a virulent current of authoritarianism and seekers of power for its own sake who will do and say anything to gain prominence. It’s disgusting.
In the end, and despite the GOP having had control of the reins of 2 1/2 branches of government in 2020, they lost. There are enough good people who see it for what it is. And there are some political animals like Mitch McConnell who can see that it is a losing proposition to be the party of Trumpism. That gives me hope, but I have no special insight into the political pendulum and how quickly it can shift. I try not to allow my worst fears to control my thought process. It’s a fight that we have to fight.
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It’s all about the book deals.
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It doesn’t matter, as long as those types keep winning elections locally and dominating the GOP nationally. The major funding is coming from people who have Christian Nationalist aims. And that is the wing that is in control of the house right now.
As long as the people who don’t align with those values keep supporting the GOP because it’s “their team” and “at least I’ll get some tax cuts out of it” they will keep dominating the party.
The WHOLE party is rotten. ALL of it. It has to go. Or we’re all fucked. They’re gonna keep targeting trans people, keep gerrymandering districts, and do everything they can to end secular democracy, including support acts of terrorism.
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I’m going to give the Trumpster’s staff some credit and bet they recommend he start calling her “Darling Nikki”. But I’ve got to admit “Icky Nikki” is more on brand for him.
I think they back him because he has the exact policies that they want. Nothing more, nothing less. They want to elimate trans people. They want to make marriage between one man and one woman. They want women to be forced to give birth. They want our schools to either be eliminated or to force religion on everyone.
They voted for him, and supported him, and backed him because they like him. Despite their weak-ass protests about how “mean” he is, they like that he’s a bully too.
The whole party is rotten.
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As is normally the case with conservative establishments, they thought that they could control the fascist. It may have been wishful thinking, trying to send in Nikki Haley and the like, but they were more than willing to have him as their candidate if it meant locking in the Know-Nothing 27% to get the executive branch.
ETA: And also seconding what @anon61221983 said above while I was writing this: the party estabishment itself has been pandering to bigots since 1968.
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