Occam's Razor and 'the worst case' in Trump's Russia scandal align

Originally published at: http://boingboing.net/2017/05/31/occams-razor-and-the-worst.html

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I’m hoping the intelligence services knew all this from the get-go and are just waiting to put together a bullet-proof legal case that puts Kushner, the Trump family, and their cronies away for a long time.

Bonus points if the whole of Trump Enterprises becomes subject to asset forfeiture, and a bunch of Russian oligarchs lose their shirts as well.


Applying Occam’s Razor, one can only come to a single conclusion:



Another possibility for blackmail is simply details of Trump’s involvement in money-laundering.


Putin knew that all Donnie wanted was banks to lend him money – he didn’t care where it came from as long as they flattered him. Since no Western banks with the exception of the corrupt Wells Fargo and the troubled Deutsche Bank were willing to do so after the 1990s that provided a perfect opportunity to use the Russian banks (which exist only at the sufferance of the Kremlin) and certain Cypriot banks (laundries that are Russian in all but name) as cut-outs in an influence campaign.*

Putin’s goals in exerting that influence started modestly: undermining confidence in Western democratic institutions and the EU and NATO by making sure the campaign of a right-wing populist would give establishment candidates a run for their money. The hacking, the troll armies, the disinformation campaigns that were used during Brexit and European elections also supported this goal.

When he actually won the primary the goal shifted to inserting pro-Russian advisors into the campaign: scum like Manfort, Flynn, Page, etc. His lenders at the Russian banks were only too happy to “suggest” who the best, really the most luxurious people would be to advise him on foreign policy.

And then, when he won the general election it was party time: trying to transform all that advice and suggestions into real policy that would isolate the U.S. from Europe and NATO while lifting sanctions.

So without any explicit quid-pro-quo, that December meeting between Kushner and Gorkov during the transition period was no doubt about discussing “promising trends and sectors with influential financial institutions in Europe, Asia and the United States” – trends that the new regime’s cronies and the oligarchs in Russia would make sure would come to pass over the next four years.

[* I predict that we’ll be seeing that report about Alpha Bank pinging the grifter’s corporate servers and the former MI-6 analyst’s allegations about other Russian banks resurfacing as the investigation proceeds. If there was true stupidity and greed at work the mysterious Rosneft sale story might also re-emerge]



@jlw - I believe you forgot to close an italics tag in this post. At least, the /blog view is borked by this post.

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Thx. Should be fixed.


Ugh. And dump Pence on us? Why would they do that to us?

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You know what? We can deal with Pence.

We’re woke and we’re not going to take his shit.

In any case, after the shit-show of impeachment and trials, Pence will be weakened, the GOP will be weakened, and most likely the most egregious wankers will be ejected from the cabinet.


When I applied my electric shaver to my face months ago, I came to the same conclusion.





I like “Trump’s Razor” as coined by John Scalzi - also found it on TPM - defined as:

“ascertain the stupidest possible scenario that can be reconciled with the available facts” and that answer is likely correct.


Plus, Pence is a career politician, he won’t do anything to jeopardize it. And he’ll be too busy implementing damage control from after the Trump Administration. Plus, by the time anyone even begins to take anything Pence does seriously, the next election’s candidates will already have announced their running. Bring him on.


I suspect that any tapes, whatever they show, are the least of it all.


First post here.

I’m ‘pretty left wing’. I’m pretty left wing for a Brit, so for all you Americans out there : I’m darn left wing.

I loathe everything Trump stands for. I wish he was not where he is. I’m against everything he stands for.

Had a fun thought exercise whilst reading this article : How are the speculations that are also accusations different from the language that Joseph McCarthy used in his threatening & insinuating hunts for commies? What if Trump is the only innocent in his pile of potential perps?

One would need to employ a very narrow and pointed definition of innocent. Without speculation we know he has violated our Presidential Records Act and we know he profited off sending cruise missiles to Syria which is a violation of our law. Events like these and others don’t prove collusion with Russians but they make the “innocent” label hard to apply.


Eh, all these idiots knew what they were doing when they got in bed with trump. Wake me up when innocent artists are being blackballed.


Yeah, this lazy comparison to McCarthyism is getting tiresome. It only appeals to the kind of ignorant dimwits who give credence to the “president’s” whinging about the investigation being a “witch hunt.”