Incidentally, since people have mentioned public health data from Hopkins, it is worth noting that the full name of the school is The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
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For flu. (Added that to the original post. My bad.)
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viral marketing
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Simple answer? Yes. Always does.
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If Trump thinks the military will help him stay in power outside the boundaries of our existing laws, he’s delusional. (Why yes, yes he is.)
Text of an NYT article (for those who don’t want to deal with the paywall):
WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper has urged American military commanders overseas not to make any decisions related to the coronavirus that might surprise the White House or run afoul of President Trump’s messaging on the growing health challenge, American officials said.
Mr. Esper’s directive, delivered last week during a video teleconference call with combatant commanders around the world, is the latest iteration of Mr. Trump’s efforts to manage public fears over the disease, even as it continues to spread around the world.
Mr. Trump has said Democrats and the news media are stoking fear about the disease, even calling their concerns a “hoax” during one rally last week.
The president has since tempered his words.
Mr. Esper told commanders deployed overseas that they should check in before making decisions related to protecting their troops.
In one exchange during last Wednesday’s video teleconference, Gen. Robert B. Abrams, the commander of American forces in South Korea, where more than 4,000 coronavirus cases have been detected, discussed his options to protect American military personnel against the virus, said one American official briefed on the call.
In response, Mr. Esper said he wanted advance notice before General Abrams or any other commander made decisions related to protecting their troops.
General Abrams said that while he would try to give Mr. Esper advance warning, he might have to make urgent health decisions before receiving final approval from Washington, the official said.
Aides to Mr. Esper declined to comment on the closed-door conversations with commanders. But one Defense Department official said Mr. Esper wanted to be sure that everyone within the government knows what military commanders are doing, and to assure that the government is communicating to the public with one voice on a rapidly developing situation.
During a news conference on Monday, Mr. Esper said decisions about troop safety in far-flung places would be put in the hands of the commanders.
“Commanders of individually affected commands have all the authority they need, and will provide specific guidance to their troops as the situation continues to evolve,” Mr. Esper said. “My No. 1 priority remains to protect our forces and their families.”
Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Defense Department was trying to plan for all possible scenarios related to coronavirus, including the possibility that the disease could become a global pandemic.
“The United States military looks at a wide variety of scenarios,” General Milley said at the news conference with Mr. Esper. He said military laboratories were working on a vaccine.
The Defense Department’s response is important because the American military has more than 75,000 troops stationed in countries that are experiencing outbreaks, including South Korea, Japan, Italy and Bahrain. Several American bases sit next to cities where the virus is spreading, and those bases employ civilian workers. Many American troops live off base as well. Last week, an American soldier in South Korea tested positive for the virus, the military’s first active-duty case.
During the news conference, General Milley said American troops were particularly well prepared to face the virus because the U.S. military for the most part tended to be young and healthy.
But the Pentagon nonetheless has canceled several joint military exercises, including in South Korea and in Israel, because of the coronavirus crisis.
The U.S. military is going ahead with another set of exercises — one of its largest in recent years in Europe. About 29,000 American soldiers — 20,000 deploying from the U.S. and 9,000 from units stationed in Europe — are involved in the exercise, Defender Europe 20.
The first major group of troops and equipment arrived in Europe in late February and is scheduled to continue into July.
Capt. Wendy Snyder, a spokeswoman for U.S. military forces in Europe, said the exercise was pressing ahead. She said in an email that military officials are working closely with their European counterparts, and encouraging adherence to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention “guidelines and preventive health measures.”
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Thread:
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Yup, very limited testing capacity, so only testing the very sickest. Of course, that leaves lots (~80% of patients) with mild symptoms who cannot get tested. In the woman’s case in particular, as a healthcare provider treating the elderly she should be a high priority patient, but no, not gonna happen. And I suspect that since she has no proven diagnosis, she will have to go to work. What a system. We are screwed.
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WHO chief says new virus much deadlier than flu, but less transmissible
World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Tuesday that data has shown the new coronavirus disease to be considerably deadlier than the usual seasonal flu, but he added that it also appears to spread less easily.
Crucially, Tedros also said it did not appear that the new COVID-19 disease was spread readily by infected individuals who are not experiencing symptoms themselves. That news came after days of experts warning that many thousands of cases could essentially be hidden around the world, spread quietly by infected people with either mild symptoms or no symptoms at all.
Tedros said about 3.4% of COVID-19 cases have died globally, a huge increase in previous estimates which have ranged between 1-2%. Generally the seasonal flu kills less than 1% of those infected, Tedros said by way of comparison.
“Containment is possible,” stressed Tedros, warning countries dealing with their first cases that the actions they take “today will be the difference between a handful of cases, and a larger cluster.”
BY TUCKER REALS
3.4% is way out of line with any data I have seen. On the other hand, the WHO director probably has access to more info than li’l ol’ me. so take that for what it is worth. That is kinda terrifying, if true. The downplaying of asymptomatic carriage may be a PR thing to limit panic, which is not a bad idea, honestly. I think what they are going with is “well, they probably had a bit of a cough in the day or so before they got sick.” At this time of year, between the usual endemic viruses circulating, and the trees blooming way earlier than usual, I challenge you to find anyone without a “bit of a cough.” I am withholding judgement on that for now. As we get more access to testing, there will be more cases uncovered. If there haven’t been any reported in your area, that’s all it means. They haven;t been reported. Rest assured, they will be.
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I was at the opera on Sunday. It’s the first time I felt on edge, because so many people were coughing. And not the coughing of a mid-winter cold season…no, more the dry cough that seems to be one of the symptoms for this. It made me wonder how far into our population it might have already spread.
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However far you might guess, it is probably deeper than that. The initial botched response and the subsequent “we are trying, but are just incompetent” follow up has left us in a huge hole. Its gonna get much worse before it gets better.
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I rode my bike to my polling place this morning. Wish I’d carried my helmet in with me, because I felt extremely self-conscious being all flushed and sweaty on a cool spring-like morning. I wonder how long it will be till we start hearing about viralantes going after people unfortunate enough to cough in public.
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Could the lower transmission be partly due to the panic over this? People actually taking basic hygiene precautions?
Because, face it. When it comes to the flu, we’re terrible.
At the same time, I am sure that I have freaked out a few people. Sorry, folks. It’s that time of year for watery, itchy eyes and rapid temperature changes that make the nose run. Yes, I bought extra Kleenex. I always do this time of year.
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I would love to think so, but I seriously doubt it. More likely we are getting more reliable numbers and better data. Humans are terrible at changing deeply entrenched habits.
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that’s pretty heartbreaking. one commenter said therell soon be testing at the university there?
but the whole idea that nobody in the medical establishment is able to give them even that information - the response instead that you’ll pretty much have to be hospitalized to get tested… 
how long do test results take i wonder? id assume there’s storage reasons why not, but couldn’t labs take samples and then triage those samples rather than outright turning people with symptoms away?
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Currently, in most states, the CDC is the sole provider of tests. NY has started producing their own tests, and I believe CA is doing the same, but generally the CDC keeps a strict line on who can be tested. And it’s usually the most sick. There seems to be little interest in identifying the less symptomatic ambulatory patients. (You know, the ones spreading this shit into nursing homes and such.) Not that that is important or anything…
Honestly, I don’t think it is malicious, but related to lack of ability to test due to lack of tests.
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That’s pretty much what I do at this point…
I’m not particularly worried, but having all this in my head has simply made me so much more aware of my hands. It’s probably part of my natural adjustment reaction.
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