Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/05/12/poll-only-36-of-americans-tr.html
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And there’s the axiom of the (approximate) third again. This is popular rule among political scientists: About a third of the populace are unrecoverable idiots, and unfortunately they tend to vote. Given this, the only hope for a marginally sane democracy is to convince the two thirds to quit their perpetual ennui, conquer their certain disgust, put aside their abundant distractions and vote. (all this over and above all manner of voter suppression, electoral college, hacking, and gerrymandering). Obviously this effort notably failed in 2016.
I’ll leave others, nearer to the issue, to consider if this rule of the third also applied to the vote for Brexit.
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“FakeNews” in 3…2…
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I read this article last month which, I think, didn’t get enough attention. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-mental-health-coronavirus-us-symptoms-cdc-white-house-press-briefing-a9446771.html
It has sentences like this:
Donald Trump is “so severely mentally troubled that he is a great danger to our nation” and must be removed from office, according to a group of international mental health professionals calling for the president to resign or for the “complete removal” of his decision-making powers leading the White House response to the coronavirus pandemic.
But I think that the one that explains why they are still supporting him is this one, @beschizza:
His “insatiable drive” allows him to “seduce and hypnotise the masses” while simultaneously endangering them with his policy decisions, she said. (‘She’ is Yale School of Medicine forensic psychiatrist Bandy X Lee, the group’s president)
"They will cling to him more, defensively idealizing him, since the psychological cost of admitting his errors would be even greater."
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It’s not that hard to explain why Trump has steady supporters. It’s like rooting for your team, win or lose. Even the worst sports teams have fans:
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A sobering reality check.
At the beginning of 2020, before the sars-cov-2 pandemic, Trump’s job approval was
42.4%. Today, as I write this, with a monumentally incompetent response to the threat, a stock market that has dropped 15% in 5 months, an unemployment rate that went from under 4% to 15% (and climbing), a series of increasingly bizarre press conferences and over 80000 corpses, Trump’s job approval is:
43.7%, an increase of 1.3%
Want another data point? The betting market currently have Trump favored over Biden, with a 50% chance of electoral victory in November.
Nothing that has happened so far has hurt him politically, and none of his supporters are abandoning him. From what I can see, his base of supporters love him and love his response, and will electorally punish any Republican who voices discontent about the response. Further, while there is much noise in the data, Trump is slowly gaining support from people who aren’t his base.
Politicians know their voters, and the Republicans in congress support Trump wholeheartedly and without any reservation, because Trump is delivering to them what they want.
Between 42 and 45% of the electorate likes Donald Trump and will traverse a field of broken glass on their knees to show their support in November. All he needs for re-election is about 3% of the remaining electorate to have another 4 year term, and his re-election campaign has a lot of money.
As amusing and idiotic those tweets and press conferences seem, we have to take Donald Trump seriously. He is serious, and he fully intends to win re-election. Unlike 4 years ago, the Republican Party is fully behind his re-election, and will also make it happen, by any means necessary.
Donald Trump and the Republican Party are leading a government based on the principles of the Confederacy. It’s getting near time to look to neighbors and relatives and figure out how to prevent this from continuing.
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I’ve heard the figure given for this subset is 27%.
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Only? Only?
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Great observation.
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Indeed. I’d like to see a few more reports where ‘despite’ was properly replaced with ‘because’ and see how many right-wing nutjobs would suddenly turn all snowflakey about it.
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I don’t think “media bubble” is the right term. It’s a twisted, inflamed “media hernia” and it needs surgery.
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This asshole has broken the crazification factor. He has made it impossible even to think.
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Or at least a series of YouTube videos popping media cysts.
“Only” 36% is inexcusable. You might as well say that only 36% of Americans have deliberately gouged their eyes out with jagged glass shards, or only 36% of Americans have punched a baby. The fact that this man, if you can even call him that, was ever allowed to become a candidate, let alone president, let alone has any trust placed in him, is proof positive that humanity is too stupid to survive. We’re fucking done.
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36% isn’t that about the percentage of registered Republicans in the US?
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God help me, I still find myself hoping that the bubble will burst for a good many of them. But I think an awful lot of Trumpers will watch the world burn and just find new ways to blame someone else, anyone else.
It’s like floating in the ocean while handcuffed to someone, and when you point out “look, land is only about a mile that way, you can see the beach” they instead want to swim back to the sinking ship because they heard a rumor it’s full of gold bars.
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This. The demographic of people who are most prone to the sunk cost fallacy are a conman’s dream. Instead of conning them out of their money, though, he’s conned them out of their government.
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The real estate swindler’s base has found their man. Trump loathes them, they know it , and on we go.
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These aren’t as dissonant as one might think.
It would be entirely possible for 24% of a population to think not enough is being done to prevent a second wave, but at the same time for enough of them to think that despite inadequate preparations chances are we will get lucky and avoid it anyway. Like “I should really study for this exam to make sure I don’t flunk…but you know I was paying attention and did most of the reading, and I really feel like getting some extra sleep, so I’ll risk it”
It is also possible that they have decided more of the deaths are poor and brown (or even just urban!), so they will take some loss to see more loss of people they hate.
It is also possible that each question launches a whole train of thought, and things they decided from answering the other questions are forgotten, and we are seeing incomplete processing and order of evaluation differences. It is also possible that the order the questions were asked in didn’t help (like asking if they are afraid, then the death tool, then if enough is being done).
It is also possible that 10% to 24% of those polled are mentally deficient, morally deficient, or both.
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