Polls show Labour cruising to big win in UK elections, but both main parties are slipping in polls

The multi-party system only works to an extent under FPTP when people vote tactically.

For instance the votes in my constituency are about 56% Conservative, 30% Lib-Dem and 14% Labour. If you want to beat the Conservatives you need to vote Lib-Dem and hope a lot of Tory voters are sick enough of the bullshit to either abstain or also vote Lib-Dem. This is a realistic prospect in 2024.

However if you live in Scotland your choices also include the SNP, so the general progressive vote is further divided, and if an SNP candidate wins that seat, it reduces the chance of the Lib-Dems forming the opposition to the almost inevitable Labour government.

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“but both are slipping in the polls”…?

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It’s not funny, nor even worth telling, if you have to work hard to explain it. :person_shrugging:

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I’ve subscribed to her cos of your links here, and I listened to her ‘bangers’ playlist, now I want her to be my friend even more.

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She is magnificent, and I’m more than pleased to have hipped you!

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I’m another novitiate, thanks! She’s top shelf. :+1:

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Happy to have hipped you, too! tophat-biggrin
She and Jonathan Pie are my favorites.

ETA: I’m quite fond of Maximillien Robespierre, too. He’s very serious when called for, but he’s also very funny.

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At least by manifesto, there is a sizeable difference in labr and cons.

Lab: will ban conversion therapy for trans people
Con: have dug up section 21 and crossed out “gay” and replaced it with “trans”

Before I’m piled on;

  • this is only looking at the manifesto.
  • this leaves plenty of space for them both to be bad
  • my point is that the cons are clearly worse

Economically, lab are offering more austerity, especially as they aim to “balance the budget”. This is bullshit the tories worked with. We need us some Keynesian stimulus.

There’s a lot of ambiguity which way they actually feel on many issues because of neutral “we will reform…” language.

I’m weighing up wether I have to vote red to get the Tory out, or whether I can vote for an actual leftist party to signal my dissatisfaction with the party formed by the unions, the way that votes for ukip and successors have dragged the Tories to the right

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Yeah, I’ve read the manifesto.

The Good:

So-called conversion therapy is abuse – there is no other word for it – so Labour will finally deliver a full trans-inclusive ban on conversion practices, while protecting the freedom for people to explore their sexual orientation and gender identity.

It’s good, but they aren’t the only party offering this.

The Bad:

Labour is proud of our Equality Act and the rights and protections it affords women; we will continue to support the implementation of its single-sex exceptions.

This is TER dogwhistling, showing that senior people at the Labour party believe in the false dichotomy between trans rights and womens rights. I can not read this any other way than a removal of rights that I have had for the last 20 years, therefore I can not support it or any party who thinks this is a good idea.

The Ugly:

We will also modernise, simplify, and reform the intrusive and outdated gender recognition law to a new process. We will remove indignities for trans people who deserve recognition and acceptance; whilst retaining the need for a diagnosis of gender dysphoria from a specialist doctor, enabling access to the healthcare pathway.

The indignities were requiring a diagnosis from a specialist doctor, and jumping through the hoops to get recognition. At best this is saying Labour will do nothing, but they could make things worse by listening to the TERs.

Does Keir Starmer want a cookie for one good policy, one policy saying they’ll do nothing at best and another I wouldn’t touch with a bargepole?

I would still vote for an anti-TER Labour candidate, but that’s not being offered to me.

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Pie had some moments, however I stopped watching that guy long ago, because I found his ranting about the woke left, political correctness, cancel culture and free speech a bit too much. He said things like Trump won because the left is humorless and shuts down the necessary debates. Has that changed much?

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No, not really. But it’s quite good to watch a ranter from time to time - I still watch Lewis Black even though he is exhausting. It helps to illustrate the techniques that the actual dangerous ranters (Farage, “Boris”, Trump etc.) use to keep their audience engaged and then riled.

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