And the Irelands would merge, leaving behind Wales and England (“Wangland”)
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Corbyn had to do something because he’s been so cripplingly, piss-poor as an Opposition leader. He has been whiling away time since Article 50 was declared content to let the Tories tear themselves to pieces only making vague declarations that he could negotiate a better deal than the Tories have managed. He’s hell-bent on Brexit and lying about why it is needed to let him run a more interventionist government (his policies are all permitted under EU law).
Labour has been told by the EU that there will be no re-opening of negotiations and that the deal agreed with May is the only way forward. The only way to avoid catastrophe is to withdraw Article 50 which Corbyn has effectively ruled out.
Barring a miracle, Labour is going to lose tomorrow - the DUP have agreed to support the government in the vote (only because they hate the prospect of a Labour government even more than the current May deal) and the Tory ‘rebels’ will not bring down the government.
And even if the government were to lose the vote, an election will do nothing - by law it could only just be run before Article 50 crashes us out of the EU. And the polls all suggest that there’s been no real movement in people’s voting intentions - despite running a government that makes John Major’s shitshow look like a well-oiled machine, May and her party are consistently ahead in the polls.
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Anytime the EU is weakened or thrown into confusion, Putin gets a chubby.
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The Pound has been on a downward trend for some time now - it lost 10% or so on the night of Brexit when the vote came in and has been fluctuating strongly depending on the sentiment whether the UK will crash out of the EU without a deal.
It’s doing okay if only because the UK government is still seen as a reputable institution when it comes to honouring its debts. If we were to leave, and especially if the Brexiteers got their way about not paying our obligations to the existing EU budget, then expect it to tank.
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While we’re contemplating the Brexit omnishamble, let’s not forget to portion a heaping serving of blame to omnigit David Cameron.
“Oh, no, my Euro-skeptic back-benchers are whinging again. I’ll just hold a referendum (which I will surely win) and then they’ll have to shut up for a few years.”
… one lackluster referendum campaign later …
“Oops. Well, sorry folks, I’m outta here, good luck with Brexit!”
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I believe the poking around the press and the US government have done into Russia’s interference into our 2016 election has turned up plenty showing similar, and longer running, programs in Europe. Including direct, very similar, interference on the Brexit vote. Farange, UKIP and several other prominent Brexiters have Russian/Putin connections. And make regular appearances at RT, and have turned up at “political conferences” in Russia.
So. Most likely.
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And the Irelands would merge, leaving behind Wales and England (“Wangland”)
I’m guessing Wales will still be left off the flag.
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No, no and no. Absolutely not. FUCK that! We didn’t all vote to leave, we’re either all in this together or the brexit shit-train is cancelled.
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The pound is actually up in the last few hours, I don’t get capitalism. A disastrous defeat for the government and this somehow improves the future prospects? What.
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He could also make up his mind and back Remain.
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[Ron Howard: He won’t]
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I’ve talked to serious-type investors (by accident, largely, that’s not nearly my crowd) and they appear to believe that the effects of Brexit will be minimal-to-none. Seriously, their serenity is a sight to behold.
I think (though I can’t be sure) that they simply assume that the Beige Dictatorship will neuter any wild ideas that show up and that we’ll end up with either the softest of Brexits where the common oik gets screwed but the monied classes don’t notice, or some sort of last-minute reversal.
It sounds stupid but if you think about it, a living cartoon won in the US and… uh… nothing’s actually changed. Not anything an investor much cares for, at any rate. Some poor people are screwed but investors don’t really care about that.
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Well, no one liked May’s deal, and everyone is optimistic that barring that, their favorite outcome will happen. So you have the people who believe that now the chances of a second referendum (and cancelling Brexit) are increased, and they think that’s good. And you have the people who want to crash out with a hard Brexit because that’s the best outcome, and those people think now that’s what’s likely!
The vote of no-confidence is sure to fail tomorrow, and that’s good. If Corbyn were to become PM, he would want to renegotiate a different deal. The EU keeps saying that there’s no better deal, but May’s deal was based on May’s Tory Red Lines. Corbyn would have entirely different Red Lines, and so would negotiate a different deal, but the House wouldn’t like it either.
An extension to Article 50 (postponing Brexit past March 29th) is only going to be approved by the EU for what they think is a good reason, but if a good reason pops up, they will embrace it because they don’t want a crashing hard Brexit either. So if there’s a general election and someone else wins, that’s a pretty good reason. While a general election can happen before March 29th, renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement couldn’t.
If there’s a second referendum, that’s a good reason too. A second referendum is literally not possible before March 29th (due to the rules around referendums. It takes 10 weeks just to appoint organizations to be the ‘lead’ orgs for each side), but the EU can hope that Remainers would win a second referendum, so they’d be happy to wait to let that happen.
What isn’t a good reason is May’s government trying to renegotiate a new agreement using May’s old rules.
The good news is that a vast majority of the House of Commons doesn’t want a hard brexit, and so they’re willing to lose a second referendum in the hopes of avoiding it. While May is almost certain to win the vote of no-confidence, it’s going to be very difficult to avoid a second referendum. At that point, the argument is going to be over what the various options of the referendum will be. Basic options are Remain vs. May’s Deal (I know) vs. Hard Brexit. There are even discussions about doing away with first-past-the-post for this.
Postponing Article 50 past March 29th requires the unanimous approval of all 27 other EU states. Revoking Article 50 altogether does not, and so for those who don’t want a hard brexit, there is that emergency exit from Brexit, if someone can figure out how to table legislation to make it happen. Unfortunately, the Government (i.e. May) is who writes legislation and introduces it to the Commons, and they’re unlikely to just give up that way because they obstinately believe that the first referendum gave them a mandate for whatever form of Brexit they can pull out of their rear-ends and not delivering on that would be a terrible thing. And so getting the second referendum is pretty much the only possible way out – now that the people are more informed, they can make a decision, and then everyone will just have to live with the immediate consequences. And the Tory gov’t may agree to that JUST to avoid a hard Brexit (in that case, their most likely referendum would be ‘Remain vs May’s Deal (I know)’ whereas they would most like one that looks like ‘May’s Deal vs. Hard Brexit’).
Despite Corbyn’s chasing of a unicorn of a renegotiated deal, he’s unlikely to actually be able to get one (if he did somehow win a General Election), and I don’t think there’s much appetite to watching him flail around trying to get one.
This is what happens when you’ve got a Brexiter Government run by a Remainer and an Remainer opposition party run by a Eurosceptic. And yet this is still more relaxing to me than watching US news.
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I am in a Eurovision mood today.
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Two wolves and a sheep get together…
BRUSSELS—Saying they were tired of getting jerked around by some “has-been pseudo-monarchy,” fed-up European Union officials rejected the United Kingdom Tuesday and gave the British people 30 days to vacate Europe. “Listen, we’re so goddamn sick of this nonsense—grab your stuff and get the hell out,” said European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, adding that the U.K.’s 66 million inhabitants could “go kick rocks” for all he cared, but they couldn’t do it in Europe. “Seriously, we gave you bastards over two years to make a decision and you came up with jack shit—so guess what? Now we’re making the decision for you. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. Later, assholes.” At press time, Britain had reportedly begun contacting former colonies in search of a place to crash.
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This is priceless.
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I honestly don’t typically read the article when I see this. Dunno what came over me this time.
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