Russia invades Ukraine

What life is like for citizens of Kyiv right now…

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This is not just a war between countries. This is a war between the right side of history and the wrong side of history.

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“Ryssland, gå knulla dig sig”

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Bugs Bunny is way smarter than most world leaders.

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George! How did I now know about this

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The world was ready to let Greece’s economy burn to the ground. How much bigger is Russia’s? 2x? We’re not talking about a global financial crisis. We’re talking about an economic backwater.

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Cutting Russia out of SWIFT has been discussed as a punishment for invading Ukraine for at least a month. Any banker who isn’t ready for it at this point should be fired for incompetence.

But sure, give them a few days. Tell Putin he has 48 hours to remove his troops from Ukrainian soil, including the BS “republics”. Every 24 hours or portion thereof after that where he doesn’t comply = 30 days off SWIFT for all Russian banks (approx. 466 of them).

The system will still work for everyone else. Only Russian banks will be prevented from sending and receiving international wire transfers. It’s not a simple process but there are mechanisms in place to disable a SWIFT code permanently (e.g. for a defunct bank) or temporarily (e.g. for a bank that’s behind in paying its membership fees). The action also can be reversed and a code re-enabled.

But they’re not going to take Russia off the system mainly because the trans-national fossil fuel companies have told the leaders of the states that can make it happen that it will be too inconvenient and disruptive for them.

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Oil and gas interests. It is always oil and gas interests.

I think there is also a lot of fear around the whole nuclear state issue. Fear that starving the bear will push them closer to using them. I don’t know how realistic that is, but I really do believe that Putin is more likely than almost anyone else to use nuclear weapons to set an example/extort the world. He has a large enough arsenal that he can do something small, but horrifying to show his willingness, while still having the capability for mutually assured destruction to prevent retaliation.

This is not the cold war - this is a protection racket

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Sure. Let’s use that. Someone posted the energy use of Germany upthread. Get free and clear from Russian gas. If this is too much for petrocompanies, then it’s time (beyond time, really) to drop them. We all know we have to wean ourselves off of fossil fuels. If those companies are willing to put up with a world war to protect their profits, then it’s time to drop them now instead of gradually.

Regarding nukes - Putin is a massive billionaire. Unless he’s received a life-ending diagnosis, he has more to lose than everyone on this BBS with a global nuclear war. If his nukes even work anymore…

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There were rumors…

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By GDP Russia’s economy is 7 or 8 times as large as Greece.

But by every other metric it’s not so impressive. Greece’s per capita GDP is 3x Russia’s.

Russia is big so their economy is big. The more numbers about Russia’s economy come up in all this the more “wait wut?” moments I get. I don’t know that economic backwater quite gets it. They are one of the world’s largest economies. But don’t appear to actually do or produce anything, or get anything out of it.

Like India’s economy is twice as large, and Brazil’s is practically the same. Both those countries are “developing”. And on the ground both are wealthier.

It’s bizarre.

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Honestly, I think that he thinks that it would not come to that. I think that if he feels economically threatened, or restrained from taking territories that he feels are his to take he would consider a show of power someplace that does not compel a response by treaty. Possibly a non-NATO country near his borders that he can claim is actually really his anyway. Nothing too big, but enough to show that he is willing. I am not saying this will happen, but I am thinking that it is a possible scenario, one that I hate because it is one that I think the world is really ill equipped to deal with.

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Russia’s economy has probably shrunk by a good 5-10% this week, but the issue is the corporations in rich countries with billions tied up in the Russian economy.

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Quickly = Within a few weeks of the situation arising.

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A short breakdown of the Russian economy

ETA: Is it just me, or is Vlad starting to look like Khrushchev?

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A silver lining to Putin seeming to be a singularly awful individual, rather than a figurehead for a deep movement like “communism” or “white supremacy,” is that he is old and he can only do so much damage before he dies

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I wouldn’t bet against the Russian aerospace industry

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More a matter of the age of the warheads. Not something to gamble on, but rather a kernel of doubt that has to go through his mind even now.

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