Surprising new poll: Haley and Trump tied in New Hampshire (with DeSantis near 0%)

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Originally published at: Surprising new poll: Haley and Trump tied in New Hampshire (with DeSantis near 0%) - Boing Boing

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For whatever their take is still worth, FiveThirtyEight rates that group “C+” for polling accuracy and it does look like an outlier compared to other recent polls in New Hampshire.

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I’m happy to hear that De Santis has no prospect of winning. Now, we just need to make sure that the other two are the same.

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I’m not certain I wouldn’t rate ALL polling accuracy at C+ or less, including FiveThirtyEight. A huge amount of people don’t even speak to pollsters, and a great many people purposely LIE to them, just to “own” their opponents, and to convince themselves that they are a meaningful part of whatever movement is currently making the news.

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If contemporary political polling as a field is unreliable, then outlier political polls like this are even moreso.

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The media and pollsters want to make this a real contest. It isn’t one and never was

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I have been saying this for the last few weeks when people keep saying “Polls in New Hampshire are showing Haley closing in on Trump.” All of these polls have been by ARG, and it’s a garbage pollster. I swear I’ve said this at least 3 or 4 times now. I bet if you dug hard enough, you’d find a connection between some wealthy Haley supporter and funding for ARG.

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Prob cheaper and safer for Haley’s outfit to throw some money at a shady pollster than say election officials.

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Note: Surveys are markedly more reliable than polls, therefore no opportunities here for waggish retorts. :upside_down_face:

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They can’t give up the polls. Without that nice quantitative sheen it quickly becomes apparent that they’re just pundits pushing a BS narrative (in this case: “it’s a real race in the 2024 GOP primaries”).

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And polls being quick (but sloppy), give them something to fill the void with and flog to the viewers. Instant, but of questionable quality… like powdered pudding mix. Burst of sugary empty calories.

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Hard to tell what’s less representative: the Iowa Caucus process or non-aggregated poll reporting.

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She’s throwing a lot of money at marketing too. Registered to vote in the primary, not republican, and I’ve been getting at least 2 Haley mailings every week. Her signs are everywhere - they far outnumber the other guy. Meanwhile the NH Dem Party is using its limited resources for the Biden write-in campaign.

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