https://www.vox.com/2021/9/20/22678173/biden-polls-approval-rating-morning-consult
One thing that we’ve seen in our polling not just of the president — we also track approval ratings of all 50 governors — one thing that we’ve seen throughout this pandemic is that regardless of the policy decisions that are made, there’s a pretty strong correlation between the Covid picture and a governor’s approval rating, and therefore a president’s approval rating.
Abbot is a monster. But. .
Biden’s approval was 54.3 in March and is now 45.8 according to real clear.
Also according to real clears poll average 30.6% currently think the country is in the right track.
Of course the real take away from recent elections is that polls are garbage and YOU should always vote. Especially in mid term and local elections.
So if we acknowledge that Abbott’s popularity plunging is bad for his party, does that mean we have to acknowledge Biden’s plunging popularity is bad for our party too?
Let me ask the question a different way because I don’t think poeple quite comprehend the room of texas politics or its citizens.
You have a room full of 10 people. This room is an average statistical representation of voters in texas , rounded to the nearest 10% and represented by a person. How many people in the room are democrats and how many are republicans? Most liberals I know think it’s 6 or 7 republicans, and 4 or 3 democrats.
That’s wrong. It’s 5 democrats and 5 republicans. 46% voted for Biden, 54% for Trump. That’s 5 and 5 in an ordering of ten.
Or 46 to 54 if expanded to 100 people in the room.
I bring that up to point out two things. One, Texas isn’t even nearly as conservative as it pretends to be, and Two, approval polling is basically asking people what party they’re in nowadays.
How about we look at it this way: Abbott is less popular than Gavin Newsom was at his lowest point, and Republicans thought Newsom was vulnerable to a recall. So there’s that.
Biden’s approval ratings aren’t great, but they aren’t unusually low compared to recent Presidential polls either. He’s considerably higher than Trump was at this point, a little under where Obama was, and more or less on par with (pre-9/11) GWB and Bill Clinton.
Another thing that makes the comparison a false equiv is that Biden isn’t actively working to hobble his constituency by killing them off.
And how much of that is it being the end of Biden’s honeymoon period and all the left wing voters expressing their dissatisfaction? They aren’t about to go off and vote Republican, but they might not be happy with four more years of Biden, or four years of Harris for that matter. How they handle this now will affect future elections.
Presidential popularity can be an indicator of general party popularity. But it isn’t a great indicator.
Same with Abbott, it is AN indicator.
But your assessment of voter is off, IMO.
Back of the napkin using 100 people in a room (10 is too small), something like 45 of them don’t even vote, 20 will vote R no matter what, 20 will vote D no matter what, and the other 15 most likely have leanings one way or another, but don’t Identify with one party.
I think a lot of Biden’s slipping numbers are due to the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Considering that the withdrawal was bound to be a disaster no matter when it took place, getting it over with during his first year in office was probably the best move politically (though it’s nice to think political considerations weren’t the main driving force behind the decision). Now he get a solid three years to get his numbers back up before he has to face reelection.
As many others have said before, the only Poll that counts is the one taken on Election Day.
They have plenty of time to pull all sorts of ratfuckery between now & then.
I am sure the upcoming Redistricting Session in the Lege will take note of this.
The only way to counteract their actions will be to pass appropriate laws at the Federal level.
I’m not holding my breath on this…
I have been reading that O’Rourke is going to run for the Governorship. I would prefer him over McConaughey, but either one over Abbott.
SOMEBODY needs to run against Taliban Dan!
The Lt. Gov. has argueably, more power than the Gov, since the Lt. Gov. runs the Tx. Senate & sets the agenda.
Taliban Dad was ranting on Fox about being Replaced… you know, the WP mantra…
However bad Abbott is, Taliban Dan is far worse!
I agree with this generally, but I have to say I’m not super impressed with the administration’s administering. I’m more confident that the republicans will derail themselves than I am the democrats will show the country competence.
Yep, that’s why we need to keep the pressure on from the left. Biden is at best a competent functionary, not a visionary or a reformer. Keeping him is office isn’t going to be enough.
Native Texpat, here.
It tells you something that, even with everything, the guy managed to be at 59%, prior. His record was also some performative nonsense, then.
Texas has been mismanaged for so long that it takes serious, criminal level buffoonery to dent the party’s hold.
Don’t forget the French. They’re mad at his Oz submarine deal, and aren’t afraid to say so.
You’re being sarcastic, right? If anything, for most Americans the US government pissing off France and scoring a multi-billion dollar deal to sell subs to Australia is a clear political winner. I don’t see upset French politicians affecting Biden’s domestic support at all.
Yeah, at this point. Maybe I’m being unduly optimistic, but to me that leaves a glimmer of hope that something might be done about the new laws, at least.
Yeah, there’s that, too. People who just moved somewhere don’t necessarily have that kind of commitment to their new location, though, especially if they only moved because of jobs/quality of life issues. All the people I know who moved from California to Texas deliberately chose a blue enclave (e.g. Austin) figuring that would insulate them from Republican nonsense, because they (falsely) only thought about it in terms of the culture they were living in, not what the impact of conservative legislators would be on the whole state.
They’re mad about a LOT more than that that we’ve screwed them over on the last administration that we still haven’t made right THIS administration.
We haven’t formally re-entered Paris Climate, we’ve still kept the same “pay your debts to NATO or we’re out” mentality, we haven’t re-entered any of the deals with Iran or North Korea that they asked us to, we screwed them over on multiple positions regarding Assad and Syria, we trashed them on D-Day celebrations and caused rows with them on the most solemn day of their year , and we haven’t even so much as attempted to right any of those wrongs.
Taking $65 billion from them in a back room secret deal to intentionally upend their submarine deal AND take Indian ocean sub-bays that were going to be loaned to the french navy by the austrailian navy… and are now going to be loaned to the US by the Austrailian navy is just the end of a long run of absolute shit sandwiches the US politically has fed to France.
Politically we’ve treated France like crap, and I am still shocked (but not that shocked) that we haven’t even tried to make amends.
EDIT: ANd yes, I know we "officially re-entered the paris climate accords in February, but we haven’t really attended the working groups and we didn’t sign anything this time.
It’s a wonderous thing when a popularity poll actually plunges because of moral and practical issues… and not because of b.s. politics. Much rarer that a well-earned poor polling actually leads to getting booted the fuck out.
Plunge more!
Remember that some of the people who are dissatisfied with Abbott feel that he’s not crazy-right enough. He’s going to be primaried from the right, probably by more than one candidate.
