It’s not gonna happen. He will finish his term and is a favorite to be reelected. Because the world sucks and people are shit. I hope it doesn’t happen but I’m prepared for the worst right now.
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I understand why you’d expect Trump to finish his term; it is definitely the most likely outcome.
But why do you think he’s “a favorite to be reelected”? He was elected in the first place very narrowly, losing the popular vote and winning a meager electoral college majority based on pretty much razor-thin margins in a couple of states. And that was running against Hillary Clinton, who had been demonized by the right-wing media for decades, and while Trump himself was still a political blank onto which people could project whatever they wanted to see.
In 2020, he has four years of being a massively divisive, ineffective, and scandal-ridden president, who has hurt or tried to hurt tons of Americans via his and GOP’s bad policies and general reckless, irresponsible behavior. That’s going to show in his vote numbers – and he won on such a narrow margin that a comparatively small loss of support can lead to a big defeat.
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Because the GOP controls electoral administration in the majority of states. See Georgia for a demonstration.
They don’t need to rig every vote. They just need to lean on the scales in enough states to tip the balance.
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Let’s just say if he got pantsed on live TV, I am not too worried about being able to see it.
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Considering the outcomes in the midterm, I think you may be a little overly pessimistic. Not that it will be easy, largely for the reason you mentioned, but with the purpling of Arizona and Texas, the move to restore the franchise to felons in Florida and the anti-gerrymandering bills working their way through (or passed by) several states, I am considerably more optimistic about it than you seem to be. I could see a unified Democratic government in 2020 if we keep up the pressure. A lot to ask over the next 2 years, which will unquestionably contain a buttload more fuckery from Il Douche, but it should be doable.
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I’m yet to see a detailed geographic breakdown, but I think that a lot of the midterm result was likely due to the further blueing of blue states rather than successful resistance of voter suppression.
Ditto for the anti-gerrymandering bills etc. They’re all happening in Dem-controlled states.
That helps a bit with the House, but has minimal impact on Presidential elections. It doesn’t matter if California is 100% blue so long as the electoral college rules.
The GOP-controlled “purple” states are likely to see the most intense election rigging. They’ll calibrate it to whatever level they think is required.
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The Zeno paradox of the arrow says that change is impossible…yet it happens. Obama won by many more electoral votes in 2012 than Trump won by in 2016, and some of the states that switched from 2012 to 2016 are switching back again, voter suppression efforts notwithstanding, Also, the effect of gerrymandering on presidential elections is indirect and minor. A bigger effect is in state legislatures and the US House, but the latter just turned blue and the Democrats made major advances in the former (6 legislatures flipped from red to blue, ). There is every reason to be cautiously optimistic, as long as a suitable candidate can be found.
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Not factual.
Passed in Michigan and Missouri (GOP legislatures; both went for Trump in 2016); holds slight lead in Utah (same).
And the courts keep smacking them down.
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That’s unusual. Any idea what motivated the Michigan/Missouri legislatures to do such a thing?
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They were ballot measures. The legislatures have to implement. 
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And there are suddenly a lot more of those. 7 Governor seats. Multiple pickups of at least one state legislature branch. Numerous pickups on elected judges (including a voting rights attorney on the supreme court of North Carolina).
A number of those voting rights ballot initiatives, including many of the neutral redistricting ones, were in red states or purple ones. Including some of the very states that turned out to be key for the GOP in 2016. There were a couple of voter ID initiatives, but they’re out numbered by the redistricting ones. And Florida voted to re-enfranchise felons.
We’re in a much, much different spot in terms of dismantling the GOP advantage than we were a couple weeks ago. Even where the districts don’t directly effect the president, there’s just as firm footing to start dismantling active disenfranchisement that does.
The states control the majority of our voting apparatus. The GOP still has majority control of a majority of State governments, but this is apparently the most influence the DNC has seen in 2 or 3 decades.
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I can speak to Michigan. We have about 6M voters, mostly concentrated in Detroit, Grand Rapids and Lansing. Due to Republicans having had control of the state house in 2010, they got to redraw the district maps. The result is about 5M voters being neutered by about 1M voters. We’re sick of it. Republicans have spent the last 8 years driving the state into the ground, and passing every bit of ALEC authored legislation they could get their hands on. The ballot initiative is our only route to get free of minority rule.
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That’s pretty much been the default GOP strategy in the Midwest. It doesn’t seemed to have endeared them to the locals. I mean you don’t get roving bands of feral educators when you’re looking at “people too stupid to know they’re being screwed” as the usual derisive take on red states goes.
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Low attendance? you kidding? How about a line that forms 24 hours in advance. Seen it myself.
Is that for the hat fitting only?
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