By Occam’s razor, I assume this is true. And the odds are he won’t die from it. Like most news in 2020, it seems significant, but will end up meaning nothing because the noise floor is so high.
If he did die, I suppose Biden would win the election, and while we’d be denied the closure of seeing Turmp face justice, we’d also be spared from throwing even more of the world’s attention onto that pointless bonfire. It might actually be the best narrative closure we could hope for: his epitaph would read “bad president, bungled a plague then died from it”.
Anyway, the odds of that are about the same as a coin coming up heads three or four times in a row.
It is somewhat more likely (still less than 50/50) that he ends up seriously ill; in that case, he’ll probably be improving by the start of November, but I don’t think even Turmp can get elected from a hospital bed.
The most likely outcome is that he’ll be fine, and yes, he’ll inevitably crow about that, but it won’t gain him anything. His chance to be seen as a leader on covid is now far over the horizon. Also, he’s not going to be seen in public for at least half the remaining campaign.
Actually, what are the statistics of Covid19 vs dementia and mini-strokes?
I don’t recall reading anything specific. Unless mini-strokes can be counted in the larger category of heart problems.
EDIT:
Doesn’t seem to be a lot of research available. Found this though:
" … Having a stroke means you are at greater risk of getting complications like pneumonia if you have coronavirus (COVID-19). …"
This could also be a graceful (like a an elephant on ice skates, and yes, pun intended), way of withdrawing from the election; he can say he didn’t lose, that he was forced out by health reasons.
This Bloomberg reporter pointed out several important things
It wasn’t immediately clear how Trump contracted the virus. Hicks tested positive after flying aboard Air Force One to the presidential debate in Cleveland on Tuesday and to a campaign rally in Minnesota on Wednesday.
Senior aides on Thursday discussed scenarios for how to handle both governing and campaigning if Trump tested positive, according to people familiar with the situation. Other White House aides learned the news of Trump’s illness when they awoke Friday morning.
Only a very small circle of people knew that Hicks had tested positive, and senior staff hoped to keep that information private, two of the people said.
Boris Johnson should have been on a ventilator. But he was given his own room and put on oxygen from day one, so that was not necessary. There are not enough resources to do this for everyone, but he insisted on the best for himself for three days. He took off a month (27th March to 27th April). He then went on to determine that everyone else need isolate themselves for only two weeks before getting back to work.
I approve of your graph and your empirical method, but these creatures don’t think rules apply to them.
