I’m not sure “we” needs to be Republicans here- there seems to be a growing sentiment among Republicans that any Republican is better than any other option. So part of my fear is that the need to vote for a Republican would do some ugly things if he takes the nomination.
Reading these I can’t help but think that Trump is the Republican mirror of Bernie Sanders. The official story is/has been they can’t win, but they keep pushing against that story. Sanders is doing so in a much more real way by climbing against the one other real candidate, but I’m finding it harder to tell myself Trump can’t win the nomination. Sure, certain measures show he shouldn’t be able to, but I think 32 percent is already above what people thought he could get. The measures could be wrong.
More than that, though, what they have in common that I think is a growing theme is that they are anti-establishment and honest. Those supporters are saying they like Trump because he isn’t a politician and he isn’t politically correct. In particular, I noted this one:
“He’s not afraid to say what everybody’s feeling and afraid to say,” Abbene said, told NPR. “He doesn’t have a filter.”
Of course, he’s not saying what everyone is afraid to say about immigration and women’s rights. He is saying what sexist and racist people are afraid to say in public. He is actually being honest - he honestly doesn’t think much of women or of Mexicans. And neither do a lot of Republicans.
But he is saying what it seems like everyone is afraid to say (or at least to say seriously) about American politics being bought and sold by the rich. People thinking that saying racist things is politically incorrect, but if you want to sink your career in American politics, saying bad things about the few corporations that own all of the media is a lot more politically incorrect. It’s the truth that everyone seems to know but no one wants to address the consequences of. Sanders and Trump give us two options to actually address those consequences, and I think after years of being very polite to the rich people are ready to hear that.
Sanders says that the solution is to get together, vote in real reformers, and show the rich that democratic power is better than money power. Trump says that the solution is to just short circuit the system and go ahead and elect the mega-wealthy directly to office; if America is going to be a fiefdom of the rich anyway, might as well cut out these scum-sucking middle-men we call politicians because no one likes them anyway.
Honestly, if Sanders weren’t there to present the positive alternative, I’d almost be rooting Trump on for the exact reason the last commenter gave. If America can’t shake off the influence of the mega rich through democracy, then they will eventually have to be shaken off through a revolution. Maybe it is time for a total collapse.
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If Trump were to take the Republican nomination, that alone would ensure the continued march of the two party system. He’s the perfect Republican boogeyman for the Democrats to brandish: Offensive and Inexperienced! (People who make a sudden transition from private sector to government with the idea in their head that they’re going to “clean up the place” end up shivering and crying under their desk).
Even I would think twice about voting third party if Trump takes the Republican nomination and I haven’t voted for a two party candidate for president in decades. We all know our democracy is in trouble – here’s a clear warning sign that things are going to get worse before they get better.
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It’s a global thing.
Anti-establishment figures on both sides are succeeding everywhere.
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Dear party members: Please note that the daily 2 minute hate has been extended to a daily 24 hour hate. The ministry of information will inform you of whom to hate at any given moment, do not switch away from the Ministry’s Fox News Channel.
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I suspect Christie will get the nomination as he’s the establishment Republican candidate most likely to pick up Trump supporters and much more likely to have follow-through for the whole campaign as compared to Trump.
Long term, I think those measures will get it right. He says so much horrible, cringeworthy stuff that while he may have a strong 32% favorable rating, that 32% is likely among rank-and-file conservative voters. The problem being, and the elephant in the room you gestured to (“certain measures”), are the feelings of negativity people associate with Trump, something like 55-60% against. Granted, I don’t want to reach into the weeds to say, “see–this one thing is why he can’t go all the way”, but between his utter and complete lack of any concrete position other than the other contenders being “idiots”, and a corresponding lack of any and all concrete policies on how he might show up these so-called idiots, American voters may still enjoy listening to his bluster, but only after they’ve voted for someone else.
It doesn’t really seem to matter what the previous profession of the President is. They all seem to do a pretty bad job.
I don’t think he would win the actual election, the nomination I’m not so sure about, because primaries are actually about a narrow segment of the population.
But my opinions are coloured a bit by being from Toronto? Do you remember Rob Ford? Vapid, angry, entitled men can do pretty well for themselves.
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Sadly, true. Interestingly, someone on BB noted, during Ford’s downfall, that part of his move to power came from the previous fragmentation of the conservative party–I don’t recall the nuances of the argument, other than that Canadians were chiding progressive Americans for being too happy to watch American conservatives kill and eat their young for the ramifications that would likely occur in the years afterwards.
I think he came to power on exactly the same wave as Trump is riding. People liked him because he “spoke his mind” and because they liked that he didn’t behave like a politician (he was a politician for long before he became mayor, but he doesn’t act like a typical politician). Trump said something like, “I say what I say, if you don’t like that, I’m sorry [not even a little bit sorry].” That’s just what Ford was like.
It seems like the vast majority of the population is sick to death of politicians and politics. News about politics is more about machinations and polls than about policy. It’s mostly filled up by pundits who are talking only to political wonks because everyone else is tuned out. I think it’s ripe ground for someone to just come up and be honest, even if they are honestly stupid.
I counted five times during the election that Rob Ford was off by a factor of 100 when discussing city finances. In ten years on council he hadn’t actually showed up to vote on any budgets. How was this guy the champion that was going to fix our finances?
I remember reading a study about conspiracy theorists that said they were usually able to contain many contradictory conspiracies in their heads at the same time, and if one was disproven they just swapped to another. The idea was that they had an overwhelming sense that something is wrong. I’m pretty sure that people in the US can be forgiven for thinking something is wrong with US politics. They might be able to hold the contradictory ideas of “Donald Trump is a racist, sexist idiot” and “Donald Trump should be our president” long enough to vote for him.
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Also
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I just keep watching Black Mirror’s “The Waldo Moment”, and waiting for that cartoon character to pop out of Trump’s head and take us all down that horrible path.
Sounds like the same way my braindamaged sister tries getting out of trouble. Shrieking ‘JUST KIDDING! JUST KIDDING!’ and bare her teeth at me trying to look ‘cute’ to get out of anything.
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I’m holding off on getting actually worried until the Republican National Convention. I’m remaining optimistic that the Republican Party as a whole knows that laying their presidential hopes on Trump would be a mistake.
I’m then further remaining optimistic that Trump honors his promise to run as an independent if he doesn’t get the Republican nomination, that the Democrats nominate Bernie instead of Hillary, and that Trump’s presence as an independent splits the conservative vote enough to hand an easy victory to Bernie.
On the other hand, if Trump gets the Republican nomination, I might have to become a doomsday prepper.
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