I agree that Trump will never be removed from office via the impeachment process. There is a sizeable percentage of voters that would turn on any GOP Senator who voted to convict. I think it’s around 50% of the GOP, 25% of the total voters. A senator cannot afford to lose those voters and get re-elected. Heck, they probably wouldn’t even win the next primary. So the only hope is to get enough GOP Senators who are not running for re-election. Is that possible? I don’t know.
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Heh. I’m just glad there’s a two term limit and that Trump is as old as he is. Even if he were able to get the two term limit removed, his age will probably mean he can’t serve as President beyond the second term.
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I thought October 28th was traditional? /s
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“Forget about impeachment; start hoping for impeechment”
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I doubt the release of the alleged tape will do much, other than invoke simultaneous projectile vomiting in anyone who dares to watch it…
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Every minute Democrats spend wanking about the theoretical outcomes of an impeachment that IS NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN or how a deus ex Mueller could swoop in and solve their problems for them is another minute closer to Trump getting a second term and this nation being well and truly fucked (even more so).
Four years of Trump is creating problems that will be with us for a generation. Eight might make things unrepairable in our lifetime.
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A caucus revolt would be quicker. We could be done before the weekend. 
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If he gets impeached it will be for some weird ass thing that blows up in his face not some rational accumulation of evidence.
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and the Atty General of the State of New York
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GOP will throw anyone under the bus if they think reelection is at stake. It’s too soon for it to matter in mid-terms, but perhaps if the GOP lost badly in mid-terms they might react in 2020. But by then we’d see the GOP pressing Trump not to run for re-election rather than impeachment. And if he doesn’t comply, they’d kick off impeachment in Trump’s second term.
This all assumes that the GOP has a backbone, foresight, and do things to serve their own best interest.
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If that happens (and I think there’s a non-trivial chance that it will if/when Trump has his Saturday Night Massacre and tries to fire everyone) I think we’ll be put in a constitutional crisis more dangerous than anyone is willing to admit right now. What happens when the AG of New York indicts a sitting President and half a dozen of his children/inner circle and the President declares that any state prosecution from Mueller’s investigation is null and void and orders the Marshalls to prevent any effort to take anyone into custody? That’s the kind of shit that can escalate to a bunch of armed people in black SUVs shouting at each other to holster their weapons and gets worse from there.
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Yep. He’s got to get caught with his hand in the cookie jar to lose those voters.
Yeah, yeah, there’s a sex joke about getting caught inside something, but we already know it doesn’t matter to his supporters.
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I still think this is simple doom saying. Look at what happened with Nixon. The DNC controlled Congress. But without enough margin to act unilaterally. Watergate burbled for like 2 years. Including through Nixon’s reelection campaign which he still won. The GOP backed Slippery Dick rigidly, attacked the investigation, etc. Right up until the “smoking gun”.
We tend to think of it as a forgone conclusion now. But at the time it wasn’t clear Nixon could be removed from office or impeached. He resigned before we could find out how far it could go. Together with other impeachments and near misses we learn a couple of things. First a plausible case for impeachment or big enough scandal, even if it goes nowhere. Can effectively neuter an administration. You dont need successful impeachment or conviction to remove a president. And even an unsuccessful push can lead to electoral disaster for the president’s party.
The GOP is doing what they’re doing predominantly because of those electoral risks. Right now impeachment, And generally not backing Trump. Looks worse to them then the eventual fall out. But there’s got to be a breaking point. A series of events. A revelation. That makes at least some of the GOP more afraid of association with Trump. Or challenge from the left. Than going after him and the resulting challenge from the right.
Serious electoral gains by the DNC. Not just nationally but down the ballot will make that more likely. As will the erosion of their gerrymandering and voter suppression. State and downward office, And the pressure from courts in their anti-democratic policies erodes their electoral cushion. Making challenges from the left more likely. And the more it looks like they’ve shot themselves in the foot with Trump the less likely they are to keep looking the other way.
Impeachment will never happen/is just social signalling just assumes that the current political dynamic is permanent, or not subject to change. And that the only effect such things can have is impeachment and removal. If that were true then we should just shut down the Mueller investigation, And stop organizing for the mid terms. If successful and forceful impeachment has to happen now or not at all then there’s precious little that can ever be done at all. It’s like the “they’re nearly the same!” and “your vote doesn’t count anyway” arguments.
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Accuracy in a Cory Doctorow post? Surely, you jest.
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Fuck! Don’t even CONSIDER a second term for this disaster.
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“My God, it’s full of holes”
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Also, two have been assassinated (Lincoln, Kennedy), although I would hardly advocate taking such an action. Just putting it out there.
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I certainly hope President Trump isn’t removed from office before the next election. Pence is waiting… he’s had a PAC for a year already.
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I think your math is a bit off.
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