Originally published at: Poll: Harris gains momentum as Trump struggles with voters - Boing Boing
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Message to Trump:
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Worst? Come on, there’s plenty of room for a worse one, and we should do everything possible to aim for that.
How about a landslide for Harris while TFG is sentenced to prison? That would be a nice start.
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Drop the hyperbole. Only a positive trend to be noted with 2% undecided and a MOE +/- 3.4.
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That said, there’s a 10-15% rightward shift to polls due to their methodology. So a2% polling lead is a 12-17% estimated voting lead.
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It’s anecdotal, but I’m seeing a lot of people genuinely excited about Walz and… surprised to be so. Looks like he’s got a lot more boost to this ticket than Caine or Biden did as VP.
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… in America?
In the last three months before an election?
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Obligatory!
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The Walz are closing in on The Donvict.
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He’ll claim that he’s being unfairly Harrised.
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The lead doesn’t surprise me as much as 2% undecided. As many down ballot race will be decided by that much or less, I really want to interview those people about where did they live in in the last 8 years.
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Still shamefully close, but that will keep the Harris/Walz campaign aggressive. And thankfully, it looks like the complacent Third Way establishment in the DNC has finally been replaced by actual Fighting Liberals.
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The opinion polls are skewed, but past presidential popular votes don’t show this carrying over as you suggest. In 2020 and 2016, polls shortly before the election lined up with the national popular vote within the margin of error. I didn’t bother looking back earlier than that just now.
My guess is that’s because actual voting also shows a skewed rightward shift relative to popular opinion, for all the reasons we know too well, and almost no one has been putting anywhere near enough effort into changing that.
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That’s not what the data shows. I’ve linked it here before.
2016 was difficult because of Comey’s Friday Surprise, but 2018, 2020, and 2022 showed a steady progression away from the actual voting results, especially noticeable in swing states.
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the creepy fraudster party
Good, but could be better. How about we settle for calling it the ‘creepy grifter party’ from now on?
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