UK Political Thread, part the second

That means elections, right? If they vote in favor of no confidence?

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It might, however it could mean a replacement leader and a limping government, I don’t really see it lasting long before an election is forced. Things have not been going well for the SNP for sometime.

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Thanks!

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This just showed up on BBC

The Alba party’s sole MSP, Ash Regan, is expected to write to First Minister Humza Yousaf offering her terms for backing him in the no confience vote.

Without her vote - or at least a couple of MSPs abstaining or sitting on their hands - his political survival would be in serious doubt.

If all opposition MSPs join forces against the first minister, he will lose.

The SNP have 63 MSPs. Their opponents have 65.

One switcher to the government could result in a tie in which the presiding officer (equivalent of the Commons speaker) would be expected to back “no change”.

Alba is Alex Salmond’s party

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Thanks again!

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Is that how it works in the Scottish system? I was under the impression that unlike in Westminster and like in most continental systems the party leader position was independent of the First Minister role in Scotland. I.e. he is being challenged as First Minister, not as party leader, and a loss would mean an immediate end to the government and an election, rather than stepping down as party leader and the party being free to appoint a new leader who can continue to serve as First Minister.

As I understand it, and I am no expert, if the no confidence vote applied to all ministers that would trigger an election.

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I think the procedure is that if there’s a vote of no confidence in the FM, then Parliament votes for a new FM, and if nobody can win that vote, then the new election would be triggered. It’s possible that we could see someone else come in as FM, but the big question is who could lead at the moment.

The whole thing looks like a bit of a fiasco- Humza looks to have pulled a “You’re not breaking up with me, I’m breaking up with you”, move on the greens when they were reconsidering the coalition agreement in the wake of the climate change U-turn, and it’s just backfired on him horribly.

It’s worth noting that the Scottish Parliament has seen a minority government before, for a full term after the 2007 election. There, the system worked as it should, with consensus being built on an issue by issue basis, but that will be a harder task now, given that the government has just blown up the relationship with its most natural ally in parliament.

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And in a move that I’m sure is entirely coincidental to the release of these stories, This is now the top story o BBC news:

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Looking at the seats, I can’t see anyone forming a majority without the SNP.

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Since this decision involves the UK, I’m posting this here (also in world politics).

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I live five minutes’ walk from Holyrood, and I can barely keep up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-68918348

Interesting Times, as they say.

My absence of money’s on Swinney leading a minority government to see out the remainder of this parliament, but then I wouldn’t have predicted any of what’s happened in the last week, so don’t listen to me.

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I’ve been saying that since, oh, roughly 2016 or so.

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From the looks of it, it had better be Swinney again. I wouldn’t trust that Fundamentalist fruitcake Forbes anywhere near the levers of power.

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I think Forbes will probably get her chance eventually but, yes, I suspect the SNP members will probably go for Swinney right now. A degree of relative stability would be welcome, these days.

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Here’s how the current crop of UK MPs have left or lost the whip since the last election. They’re not exactly the best that these four countries have to offer.

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This aspect of it would be just beautiful - Ireland to redesignate UK as 'safe country' for asylum seekers - BBC News

Turning the Tories hateful, expensive and doomed to failure performative cruelty back on them - If only it wasn’t at the expense of desperate people.

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