2022 Midterms

Will cross-post in the elections thread, too.

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Of for fuckā€™s sake. Trump as speaker of the house?!

Frustrated Head GIF by Jin

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Theyā€™re fucking themselves with this bullshit. I suspect that the ā€œfreedom caucusā€ wing will scuttle the speaker vote, just because they donā€™t believe in getting anything done, but are nihilists only concerned with destruction. Itā€™s all they know how to do.

But Raskin is right that Trump very well could destroy the current version of the GOPā€¦ maybe entirely.

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Itā€™s always possible that Trump will win his base back again as he did after January 6, but it really seems like more and more Republicans are seeing him as the loser that he is. Unfortunately the new guy is all kinds of awful as wellā€¦

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I do think that this will just split the base though. The Trumper cultists will stick with him, while the more moderate wing of the party will back DeSantisā€¦ but he canā€™t get the Trumpers. Meanwhile, Trump will do all he can to tear down the party if they cross him.

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I wouldnā€™t be surprised if thereā€™s a generational split too. Younger conservative voters not wanting Trump to run again.

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dear axios, didnā€™t we just learn that the polls are completely unreliableā€¦ like what was it: five days ago?

memory like goldfish those political reporters

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Well, theyā€™ll get it right THIS TIME, for sure!

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I donā€™t know about the quality of memory among humans at Axios, but studies on goldfish have shown they donā€™t have particularly short memories. At least one researcher of intelligence in fish, Culum Brown, has suggested we might lie to ourselves that they do because we have often placed them in small and uninteresting containers.

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Oh to be a fly on the wall.

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Any fly would need a lot of willpower to remain on the wall in a room filled with so much bullshit.

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Theyā€™ve said that before. Theyā€™re not capable of changing.

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Golden Globes Laughing GIF

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So trueā€¦
Election 2020 Fly GIF by CBS News

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My son chose a creepy costume for Halloween in 2020:

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Your son is a bona-fide genius.
(probably very stable also, at least more than most).

:grinning:

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So I just learned that, as of right now (with votes still being counted in places like California) the national popular vote for House members isnā€™t super encouraging for the Democrats. Currently the total vote count for House members is about 46.8% Democratic vs. 51.7% Republican.

Obviously seats are won in individual districts so the national popular vote doesnā€™t mean much in our current system. But still, itā€™s kinda a bummer that it appears that more Republicans showed up to vote than Democrats this time around. Hereā€™s a chart showing the national popular House vote for the last several election cycles. (Note that this yearā€™s numbers will change a bit when the count is complete, but probably not by a huge margin.)

see! just like political reporters!!! :smile_cat:

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Itā€™s worth noting that the Republicans had a lot more races where they were running unopposed this year.

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