Because Trump gets two burgers! You’re talking about a guy who gets into a public spat over whether he fired someone every time someone leaves his administration.
I don’t really see why Pence wouldn’t go. He’s purportedly been insulating himself from Trump to a certain extent for the last 3 years. And the Evangelical take on this shit is to obey the powerful man.
That said this is like the 4th time this exact rumor has become a major news story. I suspect it comes from Haley herself or whichever GOP faction has been trying to raise her profile.
But replaced with Nikki Haley they’d probably be more than pleased. Some one has been promoting the hell out of her since the impeachment hearings started.
I think it more likely that evangelicals would balk. Pence exists to give Trump access to that set and put their guy in a leadership position.
The 25A doesn’t require any political support outside the cabinet. When I look at the cabinet makeup, I see 10 members fully in Trump’s camp and 9 (including Pence) who would side with Pence due to either fundamental Xitianism or because they are a holdover of the traditional GOP. There are 4 wildcards: Barr, Broillette (who will move as Barr moves), Scalia, and Chao. I think Scalia would lean towards Pence due to religion. Barr could go either way (he’s a fundamentalist, but also believes in the power of the executive). Chao is probably persuadable one way or the other based on what’s best for her and Mitchie. It would take 3 out of those 4 to go Pence’s way to proceed.
And if it gets transmitted to Congress, Pelosi would go for it. If Mitch is on board, it’s a done deal.
That completely ignores his backstory. Pence is very much a strike from the shadows type. And this is truly his one chance to be president. He won’t get elected - as you and @anon21100188 point out, he has no charisma of his own. A power move would be his shot, and he’d be supported by the 1/2 of the GOP that wants to go back to the halcyon days of dogwhistles and velvet hammer racism.
That’s an interesting thought experiment, but I sadly do not share you optimism re: Pence’s power of persuasion.
I just can’t agree with that, given what we just saw in impeachment. They were handed a golden ticket to get rid of Trump if they wanted to, no effort required, and they went hard the other way.
He can ask Pence to resign, and if he refuses, he (or more accurately his minions) can make Pence’s life miserable. Pence seems like the kind of guy who has plenty of baggage that could be exploited that would be ruinous to him – like revelations that he’s an adulterer or worse. Trump may be made of Teflon, but I don’t think Pence is.
My god, look at her eyes. Her eyes! Lifeless eyes, black eyes, like a doll’s eyes. When she comes at ya, doesn’t seem to be livin’… until she bites ya. And those black eyes roll over white, and then…
I’m not really saying it’s likely, but that it is likely that, if Pence thinks Trump’s going to replace him with Haley on the 2020 ticket, that he’d explore it. It doesn’t depend on Pence’s nonexistent powers of persuasion. It only depends upon ambitious people acting in their own self-interest.
There is a big difference between impeachment and 25A removal. Convicting Trump on impeachment hands a victory to Dems. Removing him via 25A is cleaning up their own house. It also doesn’t require a 2/3 supermajority, it’s a straight up vote. It’s the kind of thing that would bring Collins’ and Gardner’s political career back from the dead.
I think if Trump were about to launch a nuclear missile at Los Angeles and Collins had to sole power to remove Trump before it happened, Collins would say something about how Trump’s actions were unsettling and vote to keep Trump in power.
Gentleman’s wager, then? $50 to the winner if either of our scenarios takes place. If neither happens, we’ll call it a push. If my horse comes in, I’ll be in a panic but I’ll at least have some walkin’ around money to buy a nice bottle.
It requires a straight-up majority of the Cabinet and a 2/3 supermajority in both Houses of Congress. It’s harder to pass than impeachment, not easier!
Not my style to bet money, but certainly bragging rights on the BBS! If that works, you’re on.
For it to stick, you’re absolutely right. My mistake! Still, it would be fun to watch them figure out who is supposed to be acting president while waiting for Congress to take it to vote. That’s one area where the 25A is vague. I read it as, if the VP transmits to Congress, they act as president. If the president challenges, it reverts. Then, if the VP transmits again, then they are back to acting president until Congress decides. That can be 21 to 25 days, especially if the House slow-plays it.
But if Pence takes over now, he would have a near-zero chance at being elected in November. The GOP/cabinet won’t risk losing power for the next four years.
