Democrat John Fetterman wins PA senate race in first major election call. It's midnight and there's no red wave

As Frederick fills up with more DC and Md tech corridor folk, it’ll hopefully become more reasonable. Don’t blame you at all for moving, mad respect and sympathy for teachers these days, the last thing they need is a deranged School Board making things worse. Hope you guys find a better place.

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If Oz is feeling the pain of crushing embarrassment and humiliation, I happen to be selling an excellent patent nostrum that will do him a world of good.

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Our school board choices were either a gun nut or a CRT nut. The CRT nut won. Yay?

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I may have spoken too soon. We thought they’d already counted all the mail in ballots, but it turns out there are a ton of those still outstanding, and based on requests made they probably are mostly Democratic. Something like 3 to 1 Dem vs. GOP (not including independents and other parties that might be recognized in MD). So… maybe the tallies will switch enough to matter and the concept this is an area shifting Democratic as I’d thought will be confirmed again. We’ll see.

Man, I would have probably preferred the gun nut in that case. Assuming they didn’t have OTHER troubling viewpoints.

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Fetterman was +3 on the night and may end up +5 when it’s all in, margins not reflected in that polling average for months. Indeed, he ends up getting what the polls suggested he would at the point before serious money (some $400million, all told) entered the race and media coverage started in earnest.

Makes you wonder, doesn’t it!

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Time to dust this one off again (and I hope to be repeating it here some more in the next few hours/days)

All cued up and ready to go at the point where you can all sing along…

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Oh, they both have all the troubling viewpoints, it’s just how they prioritize them. Ordinarily, i am opposed to not voting, just try to minimize the damage. Not this one. Couldn’t vote for either one.

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Just as there’s no upside for the corporate media in supporting the anti-fascist cause, there’s no downside for them in building their election season coverage around a fundamentally outmoded polling architecture that always skews conservative and obscures the opinions of young people.

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Well, in that case I’d write in my own name. Which solves nothing, but doesn’t sound like you had any other choices. Yuck.

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pimp

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image

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Notice that the displayed chart is “Average Polls”. Know how to skew an average? Add your own polls to the tally. Conservative skewed polls are a growth market. They are used like the cheesey small-town reviews in movie ads.

“Greatest Politician Ever!” - Woody’s Bar poll, Hooterville Times Herald

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Part of the media’s sudden realization that the “red wave” expectation was not real has been talk about how the polling shift it was based on came out of GOP aligned polling and the Republican’s internal polls.

So yea.

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You clearly know it, but those last two words should be in scare quotes. There’s no way that the raft of reporters, decision desk staffers, pundits, etc. upon which the corporate media outlets base the credibility of their election coverage don’t know what’s been going on with the polling and are genuinely “surprised” that it turned out to be wrong. They’re either grossly incompetent or (more likely) willfully blind to how broken and compromised the polling they’re so invested in is.

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It catered to their preferences. A tight race, with an easy clear narrative, “shocking” flip of control. All fits the shitty horse race coverage we get of elections. That false balance thing means that when a GOP functionary shows up and brags about how their polling shows them winning everything, they just implicitly accept it.

This is all good for the bottom line for most media.

It’s just broken, and they’ve learned nothing and done nothing in the wake of 2016.

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At least Oz didn’t follow the GOP denial playbook. That’s the best thing I can say about him:

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Sadly, I think we’re re-electing the Oosik to Gov here in AK. Guy has done little to not fsck the state up over the past four years, but big cash giveaways via the (unsustainable) PFD do tend to cloud peoples judgement.

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Whew. That’s a load off.

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Might be some more good news coming our way. Lauren Boebert is trailing in her race - not by much, but she’s behind:

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I guess the “shy Republicans” answered the phone, but were too shy to vote. :man_shrugging:

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