Maybe there’s a badge for being a BBS software victim at least 5 times.
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Well, I dunno. Those are odds, not electoral votes. Hardly a landslide there.
I do think her odds are much better than that. My opinion for many months has been that this election will look similar to the 2012 one, when Obama received 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206, despite only getting 51.1% of the popular vote. Now, like then, I feel like the media is grossly overstating the GOP’s chances.
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Coincidentally why my mother hates getting into “debates” where she has to fact-check and tries to get me to watch Glenn Beck instead of posting transcripts of the filth.
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Maybe someone will send a letter about it to us in Canada.
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The turnout issue is the only one that really concerns me. I’m from the rural South and when I visit home, those crazy, ignorant motherfuckers are on fire about Trump. Meanwhile, I’m begrudgingly voting for Clinton.
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I’m pretty sure he’s hitting up very Hispanic woman in politics. Only way he stands a chance.
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And the fact that she’s a Clinton- Which is almost getting lost in the shuffle with the rest of the shitstorm, but strikes me as a pretty strong reason not to vote for someone.
There was a point in '08 where Obama hadn’t yet overtaken her in the primaries, when the other side was just starting to think about Jeb for '12 or '16- There was a moment there where we had a very real chance of having Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton, Bush- Over a quarter century of the White House being occupied by two families. As it is, an 8 year break doesn’t really make me feel much better about it.
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I don’t live in a world where an alternate vote exists that’s not a vote for Trump.
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I’ve said it many times so far, but we have two of the least liked candidates in my lifetime, and that is going to mean record low turnouts- Which never work well for Democrats.
Manufactured bullshit or not, there are a lot of people who believe the bad stuff about Clinton, to a degree that I think more people will make the effort to go vote against her than are willing to actually show up to support her. She’s a bad candidate, and I don’t think she can win- And that’s without factoring in the lengths the DNC seems to be going to to alienate the Bernie or Bust crowd.
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I think she can. But only against someone as historically bad as Trump (or perhaps Cruz).
Since the DNC are determined to pick her, they got very lucky.
The difficulty will be in convincing her to step down in 4 years.
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I don’t know that it’s either fair or useful to debate who has it “worse” (well, OK, it’s black women. Black women have it the worst). But if we go by “who was the last to get the vote” then sexism did narrowly edge out racism for which group was excluded from American politics for the longest.*
*Individual mileage may vary, especially for people living in the South.
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Two decades plus of faux Cltinton-scandals, plus a few real screw ups along the way like voting for the AUMF (which allowed for the Iraq War and what has come since), supporting the disastrous military intervention in Libya, being essentially a neo-liberal on foreign policy with instincts that are hard to distinguish from the worst of the Republicans, friend of Wall Street, etc.
If you could transport the HRC of today back to the 80’s and 90’s, she’d be on many issues a fringe Republican. As far as I can tell, she is what would pass for a moderate Republican (if such creatures existed) today. So the Rabid Republican Base will vote Republican, most Democrats will vote Democrat and independents (like me) will hold our noses in hopefully large enough numbers that HRC wins the electoral college.
Basically, we have a truly awful candidate in Trump, and a less awful candidate in Hillary. I would never support DJT. My support of HRC will be limited to election day, and then only if it appears she stands a snowball’s chance in hell of carrying my state. (If not, I will vote conscience.)
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Nate Silver was so spectacularly wrong on predicting Trump’s success up to this point that this comes as cold comfort. I’m not taking anything in this election for granted anymore.
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Yup.
Nate’s whole methodology is based upon “if this election is like previous elections, then we can predict X will happen”.
This election is not like previous elections. And yesterday’s events in Dallas were a dream come true for the racist right. President Trump just became a lot more possible.
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It’s safe to say that Donald Trump doesn’t “like” anyone who isn’t prepared to kiss his flaming orange butt.
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Okay, here’s his predicted electoral votes:
Hillary Clinton: 342
Donald Trump: 195
Still looks like a crush to me.
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Snopes is only saying that so they don’t end up on the list!
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Yeah, it’s going to be ugly. With a GOP candidate even more disliked than the Dem. it will be a weird dynamic, and it’s certainly not good, though it’s hard to judge what the end results will be because we’re in very strange territory.
I’m sure there will be a lot of people who show up to vote against her. But I can guarantee there will also be a lot of people showing up to vote against Trump. He’s not only more loathed than Clinton, but uniquely loathed in ways we’ve never seen in a candidate in our lifetimes.
She’s a bad candidate, but I think it’s pretty likely she’ll win. All the numbers point to it, and unless there’s a major revolution in the Trump campaign’s tactics, I’d assume it’s a very safe bet, since in terms of the general election he seems to be trying to lose at this point.
In a contest between two crap candidates, the crappier one’s likelier to lose. Trump’s loathed by the GOP base and general public more than Clinton is loathed by the Dem base (who we should remember, are mostly not progressives) and general public. Between the #NeverTrump and the Bernie-or-Bust crowd, the #NeverTrump crowd are a bigger deal, since the B-o-B crowd have historically been the people who barely show up to the polls (young left-liberals are always hard to get to the polls), and we’ve never had a real movement of direct opposition by the GOP to their candidate. The closest might be Perot in '92 (which isn’t a close parallel), and in that one Clinton won.
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