Elections 2021 and 2022

Just keep Ozzy away from the bat enclosure at the zoo.

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Fight Insult GIF by FoilArmsandHog

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Who’d have thought they were agents for the Nazis?

Just goes to show you can never tell…

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Fuuuuuuck

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derry-girls-sister-michael-ffs

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My brain muses today: Every time a mouth-breathing moron is onstage (anywhere), I feel like their bloviating should be met with, “DO YOU HAVE ANYTHING TO CONTRIBUTE, INSTEAD OF TEARING DOWN EVERYONE WHO’S TRYING TO SOLVE COMPLEX PROBLEMS?”

And just rinse-repeat this line every-freaking-where until these idiots are shamed into attempting to be human. Or run away; hopefully #2.

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Episode 1 Premiere GIF by RuPaul's Drag Race

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This survey of 1,170 adults was conducted March 22nd through March 29th
, 2022 by the Marist College Poll.

:roll_eyes:

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Gut feel from reading way too many statistical analyses: Yikes, that’s one dangerously skewed poll. To get an overall net of -4% with that divergence among demographics, the sampling is horrendous. It’s like polling a junkyard for running cars.

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A 16-page memo, arguing that the suburbs are the only swing districts left, and are much more diverse than they used to be:

AMERICA’S SUBURBS: GROUND ZERO IN 21ST CENTURY POLITICS
MARCH 21, 2022
BY DOUG SOSNIK

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017f-bcf4-d17b-a1ff-bef5e8a70000

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I’ve lived in the same suburban county for over 20 years now, and it’s gone from red to blue since I’ve been here. Can confirm the increased diversity. The district I’m now (back) in (I was in this district and moved slightly south and was in another district until they moved it around us) just flipped Democratic.

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It’s not great but the sample size is pretty much in-line with the majority of polls that Fivethirtyeight uses in their aggregator:

The low response rate for phone polling has been a problem for years, and only getting worse over time. I certainly don’t answer a lot of calls from unknown numbers these days. So in addition the the sample size you also need to worry about the respondents as a group not being representative of the average voters because the demographics of people who are willing to pick up strange calls and answer survey questions may skew one way or the other. Super hard to correct for.

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Maybe they should change their methods. With voter registration information so accessible these days, there’s not much excuse for relying on the phone.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/10/politics/cnn-polling-new-methodology/index.html

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Agreed that there’s not much future in relying on the phone surveys alone, and I wish CNN all the best, but their new plan relies on snail mail to make contact, which has issues of its own:

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