āYoung peopleā is everyone polled under 45 years old. As far as polling methods go:
The nationwide poll was conducted July 11-15, 2024 using the AmeriSpeakĀ® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,253 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.
Iād think landlines are going to skew towards rural, more elderly, and more conservative regions, even if the respondent identifies as a Democrat. Iāve never received a polling call on a cell phone, Iām not sure who they are reaching there.
ETA:
- Use of the NORC National Frame increases sample representativeness by enhancing sample coverage for rural and in particular low-income households.
- Use of NORCās field staff for in-person recruitment enhances sample representativeness for young adults, lower socio-economic households, non-internet, and other households that are typically hard-to-reach for statistical surveys of the population.
Most of the responses were actually via web-survey (1,216 vs 37 by phone) but the panel still deliberately boosts rural and low-income coverage.
Iāve never heard of Truthout, and the first thing that pops up is that they are asking for money. Immediately suspect.
As for the poll, all it would take to get those kind of numbers would be to word the question like, āIf President Bidenās health is failing, should he step out of the presidential race?ā Or variations thereof.
The questions look pretty neutral, if you are interested in checking them out they are here:
Thanks!
That surprises me.
Theyāre legit as far as I know, and theyāve been around for a long time.
No problem! I still donāt have any confidence in the poll, despite the questions being neutral. Polling is broken and seems to be used more as an attempt to influence popular opinion than reflect it.
^^^that part, right there!
putting the notion out there then foments speculation amongst the viewers, who then may respond in kind, having never even considered the thought/action being presented.
I noticed that they only presented alternatives to Biden. And that none of the potential replacements polled higher than Biden in the same poll.
Other things that stick out:
-very disproportionate ratio of 60+ year olds (maybe thatās normal for polls, though)
-minorities underrepresented
-disproportionate representation from the South region, especially South Atlantic (maybe Florida retirees from the first point)
-high income, high home ownership, yet high ānot employedā ratio.
Yep, weāve confirmed that they primarily polled The Villages.
Or in this case, question selection that reinforces the bullshit that has been in the news cycle constantly, so even if they hadnāt considered an opinion themselves, the act of responding to the poll asking the question can make a person reconsider. Itās a fucking circle jerk with pollsters and the media.
I once got a call from Gallop, naturally, I was in the middle of getting out of the house, but thought āOK, sure, why not, maybe I mess with themā. It was 2008, and they were asking questions about candidate Obama. I answered honestly because I was going to vote for him.
Never again, though. I havenāt changed my phone number since my first cell phone from last century, so maybe I skewed against their expectations after all.
Chickenshit little shit chicken.
So the āenergized youngstersā would be the ones with souped-up golf carts?
āWe donāt know who the Democrat nominee for Vice President is going to be, so we canāt lock in a date before their convention,ā the campaign said in a statement. āTo do so would be unfair to Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, or whoever Kamala Harris picks as her running mate.ā
Oh, they think theyāre so clever.
Actually, they are dicks.
Which strangely echoes the unnamed DNC āsourcesā quoted claiming they want to dump Kamala Harris from the ticket too, even though she polls well against Trump in their Fantasy Political League. (If this isnāt about beating Trump, what is it about?)
āWe donāt know who the Democrat nominee for Vice President is going to be, so we canāt lock in a date before their convention,ā the campaign said in a statement. āTo do so would be unfair to Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, or whoever Kamala Harris picks as her running mate.ā
Jinx, @subextraordinaire!
Theyāre evil and cowardly, but this is probably a smart move for them. Itās hard to see any upside for Vance if he were to debate Harris, and heād doubtless be asked some hard questions about things like his support of a national abortion ban or the many accurate characterizations heās made of Trump in the past or the fact that Trump tried to have his last VP hung.
I still say it makes them look like chickenshits. And if we had an even halfway unbiased mainstream media, theyād be mocked mercilessly for it.