Elections 2023 and 2024 (Part 1)

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ā€œYoung peopleā€ is everyone polled under 45 years old. As far as polling methods go:

The nationwide poll was conducted July 11-15, 2024 using the AmeriSpeakĀ® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,253 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

Iā€™d think landlines are going to skew towards rural, more elderly, and more conservative regions, even if the respondent identifies as a Democrat. Iā€™ve never received a polling call on a cell phone, Iā€™m not sure who they are reaching there.

ETA:

  • Use of the NORC National Frame increases sample representativeness by enhancing sample coverage for rural and in particular low-income households.
  • Use of NORCā€™s field staff for in-person recruitment enhances sample representativeness for young adults, lower socio-economic households, non-internet, and other households that are typically hard-to-reach for statistical surveys of the population.

Most of the responses were actually via web-survey (1,216 vs 37 by phone) but the panel still deliberately boosts rural and low-income coverage.

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Iā€™ve never heard of Truthout, and the first thing that pops up is that they are asking for money. Immediately suspect.

As for the poll, all it would take to get those kind of numbers would be to word the question like, ā€œIf President Bidenā€™s health is failing, should he step out of the presidential race?ā€ Or variations thereof.

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The questions look pretty neutral, if you are interested in checking them out they are here:

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Thanks!

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That surprises me.

Theyā€™re legit as far as I know, and theyā€™ve been around for a long time.

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No problem! I still donā€™t have any confidence in the poll, despite the questions being neutral. Polling is broken and seems to be used more as an attempt to influence popular opinion than reflect it.

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^^^that part, right there!
putting the notion out there then foments speculation amongst the viewers, who then may respond in kind, having never even considered the thought/action being presented.

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I noticed that they only presented alternatives to Biden. :roll_eyes: And that none of the potential replacements polled higher than Biden in the same poll.

Other things that stick out:
-very disproportionate ratio of 60+ year olds (maybe thatā€™s normal for polls, though)
-minorities underrepresented
-disproportionate representation from the South region, especially South Atlantic (maybe Florida retirees from the first point)
-high income, high home ownership, yet high ā€œnot employedā€ ratio.

Yep, weā€™ve confirmed that they primarily polled The Villages. :wink:

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Or in this case, question selection that reinforces the bullshit that has been in the news cycle constantly, so even if they hadnā€™t considered an opinion themselves, the act of responding to the poll asking the question can make a person reconsider. Itā€™s a fucking circle jerk with pollsters and the media.

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I once got a call from Gallop, naturally, I was in the middle of getting out of the house, but thought ā€œOK, sure, why not, maybe I mess with themā€. It was 2008, and they were asking questions about candidate Obama. I answered honestly because I was going to vote for him.

Never again, though. I havenā€™t changed my phone number since my first cell phone from last century, so maybe I skewed against their expectations after all. :woman_shrugging:

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ha ha simpsons GIF

Chickenshit little shit chicken.

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:confused:

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So the ā€œenergized youngstersā€ would be the ones with souped-up golf carts?

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ā€œWe donā€™t know who the Democrat nominee for Vice President is going to be, so we canā€™t lock in a date before their convention,ā€ the campaign said in a statement. ā€œTo do so would be unfair to Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, or whoever Kamala Harris picks as her running mate.ā€

Oh, they think theyā€™re so clever.

Actually, they are dicks.

suck my dick middle finger GIF

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Which strangely echoes the unnamed DNC ā€œsourcesā€ quoted claiming they want to dump Kamala Harris from the ticket too, even though she polls well against Trump in their Fantasy Political League. (If this isnā€™t about beating Trump, what is it about?)

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ā€œWe donā€™t know who the Democrat nominee for Vice President is going to be, so we canā€™t lock in a date before their convention,ā€ the campaign said in a statement. ā€œTo do so would be unfair to Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, or whoever Kamala Harris picks as her running mate.ā€

Stand Up What GIF by 800 Pound Gorilla Media

Jinx, @subextraordinaire!

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Theyā€™re evil and cowardly, but this is probably a smart move for them. Itā€™s hard to see any upside for Vance if he were to debate Harris, and heā€™d doubtless be asked some hard questions about things like his support of a national abortion ban or the many accurate characterizations heā€™s made of Trump in the past or the fact that Trump tried to have his last VP hung.

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I still say it makes them look like chickenshits. And if we had an even halfway unbiased mainstream media, theyā€™d be mocked mercilessly for it.

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