ā¦ discussion of āmargin of errorā
J.F. in Radnor, PA, asks: The polls for the Blue Wall states have recently consistently shown Kamala Harris ahead by about 3-4 points. That is just within the margin of error, but almost outside. Is there any comfort (for Harris supporters) that the difference is +3 to +4 vs +1, or is it the case that once you are in the margin of error it doesnāt matter what the differential is?
(V) & (Z) answer: Every point matters. If a candidate is ahead by 2 points, the probability that he or she is really ahead is greater than if the candidate is 2 points behind. Being ahead outside the margin of error is simply a statistical convention. If someone polls at 48% with a MoE of 4%, what this means is that there is a 95% chance of the true value being between 44% and 52%. MoE is by convention two standard deviations. If the MoE were reported as one standard deviation, then the range would be smaller but the probability of the true mean being in the range would be only 68%. If the MoE were reported as three standard deviations, the range would be even bigger but the probability of the true mean being in the range would be 98%. A long time ago, somebody decided that a 5% chance of being wrong was better than a much wider range and it stuck. There is nothing magic about being 0.1% above or below the MoE boundary. The better you do in the poll, the more likely you are actually ahead.
presuming the poll itself is meaningful. the error bars measure the method, but if the method is wrong, the error bars are as meaningless as the numbers they bracket
Iām torn about this. On the one hand, Iām very glad they have such a large legal team, but on the other hand it really sucks that they need to. 
Far-right influencers turn against Trump campaign
Many of the campaignās hard-right critics said they still stand strongly behind Trump himself. But some of them have vowed to pummel the campaign online and at Trump rallies unless it changes course, presenting a challenge for campaign officials who have worked to publicly disavow or disregard extreme voices for fear they could alienate voters.
(Free link)
https://wapo.st/4cynVPn
Eew gross. Wtf. These people are truly degenerating. How long till they smear themselves with poop or something.
[ETA]
This guy is just delusional about Trumpā¦ I mean, WTF? He seems to downplay the worst of Trump a bitā¦
Sure, but so are tens of millions of other people. 
Oh sureā¦ but he saw him up close and personal, and itās clear he has real issues with Trump, but he also refuses to say that the guy is a real threatā¦
āWhy donāt you have all the answers at the start of an investigation?ā Derp!
Even Trumpers hate each other. 
Hereās a bit of cheery news. 
It exposes how much support and enthusiasm there is for white men in leadership and how friendly other communities of people are to white men in general.
One big self-deception for right wing men is that everyone hates them because they are white men.
Walz makes it clear that the problem is with their antisocial behaviors and actions as opposed to their race or gender.
