This is all the fault of famed Spring Breaker Brady Sluder.
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The latest CDC guesswork is trying to suggest that 10x as many people have been exposed to the virus than the number of Covid19 cases reported. Let’s say that that is true and that we then have a death rate of “merely” 0.5%. In order to reach the point that we see the current strains have little effect on an epidemic scale, 1-2 million will die. However, before we get close to that, the lack of public health system (it’s just a cartel of private systems) will collapse. We’re maybe only a week away from it here in Florida. You can look at the “Florida Community Dashboard” produced by our sacked data analyst if you want to watch those ICU and isolation bed numbers tick down. As we’ve seen from Italy, once that happens the death rate goes up by an order of magnitude. Now consider 10-20 million dying in the US alone. And that’s if our guesstimate is correct. We don’t have enough data yet to be certain. What if this virus behaves like other coronaviruses do and transmission is damped by hot humid weather? Florida could be currently experiencing exponential growth in what is a best case scenario. I write this from home in the hyperbolic cluster of disease called Tampa Bay, where I’ve been physical distancing since early March apart from minimal shopping and some light exercise (both while wearing a mask). The state is pretty evenly split in most things, although it often fails to look that way.
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I’m not sure that is going to happen, but I am quite sure it could happen, and those not considering the worst-case possibilities here are not being responsible. That includes all our so-called leaders who were in favor of “opening up.”
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You’re under the impression that I’m trying to find the silver lining in this. That’s not what I was doing. I was pointing out that in a post covid world other countries (such as mine) will have a low regulation economic juggernaut to contend with, even more so than now. That’s a bad thing for us and for you. No silver lining there, except for the 1 percent of the 1 percent.
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Somebody in the market still writes D&O on the Mets front office.
The premiums must be near the policy limits.
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My wife’s life insurance premiums went up. I’m guessing why.
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Mike Judge is the true seer:
Recent info out of China (the guys who have the most long term data) have eluded to the fact that we may only retain immunity for a few months. Antibodies seem to drop off precipitously after about 3.
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Starving people do not just quietly lay down and die
True. The ancient latin phrase “panem et circenses” (bread and circus) means just that: want to easily herd people? Then keep them fed and entertained! The lockdown took away some entertainment, but almost everyone although with some difficulties could eat everyday. Now if food starts to disappear from shelves, it will mark the moment when shit hits the fan and things get really nasty. The only problem is that people after being divided and conquered (another ancient saying worth of keeping in mind) since forever will essentially fight against themselves while those responsible for this (sure not the pandemic, but the inaction in containing it) will watch from safe distance.
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I agree with everything you said.
My internal model, factoring multiple stupid high population states:
Approximately 125k deaths now
Doubling to 250k deaths sometime in October
Doubling again to 500k by end of 2020
And that is deaths attributed to C-19. If working off of excess deaths it will be significantly higher.
This is how empires die
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Not everyone on this board is from the US. Those not in the US (excepting the UK^) are experiencing longer stricter lockdowns but will lose fewer of our loved ones.
^ ‘United’ in a country name really has become a bit of a misnomer over the last couple of years.
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The texas GOP is going forward with their convention on july 16-18. 6,000 expected attendees. No mask requirement.
I am apalled.
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Speaking of which:
Tassie is now at a month and a half with no new cases. The domestic lockdown is pretty much over, and they’ve set a provisional date (a month from now) for reopening the border to the mainland. That reopening will depend upon Victoria and NSW getting their shit together in the meantime.
While our island backwater status certainly helped, it’s important to remember that the vast majority of US cases track back to affluent people flying into the country rather than poor people walking across the border. The US catastrophe was not created by geography.
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America’s attention span is too short for a pandemic.
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And if they’re getting a mild case the first time, and a mild case the second time, their condition may be a big shrug, and they have to consider the test clearing them was a false negative, or the one they have now is a false positive. We don’t have enough data to figure out that answer as yet.
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Victorian here. Tassie has been helped by its island status and relatively small population. The lower population density helps as well. They don’t have so much of the large dense urban areas.
Otherwise, I would expect Tasmania to do worse than us. Its been a long, cold autumn and winter so far and I think the tendency to meet indoors (rather than outside) has tipped the covid reproduction ratio to above one here, while NSW is missing out, mostly.
I expect we will be playing whack-a-mole until September.
I just can’t believe that Victorians are trying to have holidays in NSW right now. Fuck your holiday. There is an emergency running right now.
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Some people might want to learn a little history.
The places that played it safe in 1918? With heavier lockdowns that were going to destroy their economies? Came back faster and stronger when it was over. Those that didn’t, that reopened early to protect “economic stability” crashed bigger and harder both in mortality and economic consequences. Some still haven’t even caught up.
Anyone arguing that opening up needs to happen, or that a post-pandemic ravaged country is going to be an economic juggernaut to be feared isn’t forming opinions based on available evidence.
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But not surprised, right?
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