Yeah, but California has almost 70 times the population of Wyoming, but it doesn’t have 70 times the representatives, now. That disparity is only going to get worse - rural flight is also happening between states. So on top of what you’re talking about, there’s that dynamic.
I don’t see a solution besides Democrats getting a hell of a lot of people to vote in the next few elections. If that doesn’t happen, it’s all over.
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No the formula is a bit more complicated than that. But they have 53 times as many representatives. And 18 times the number of electoral votes.
A lot of the organization of our government. Electoral college. Every state getting 2 senators. That whole slaves are 3/5s of a person thing. Etc. Was about increasing the influence of lower population and more agrarian states. Primarily because the power base back in 1776 was in Southern, agrarian states with low populations and TONS of slaves. And they wanted to keep that shit going. But also because you legitimately don’t want one really big populous state to be able to control the whole government.
The rural flight between states is most often happening from blue states, to red states. Like I said the states getting population growth now, and cities too. Are often in states that have traditionally been red. Like the Carolinas. Its not that its something that isn’t happening, or doesn’t have an effect. Its just the observed affect as its happening is in the opposite direction from what you’re worried about. More states are shifting leftward, and that’s expected to continue. And the exact situation the GOP is trying to work around by fucking our elections.
Voter turn out could definitely overcome the current Gerrymandering. But the courts are starting to push back on gerrymandering and voter suppression. Really you can’t unfuck the current districts until a new census comes out, in three years. But Trump seems bound and determined to completely fuck that up. Perhaps deliberately.
Yes. But none of those events change the disposition of his domestic policy. People, and history, are complicated. And though its surprising nobody is perfect.
Beyond that military aggression and fucked up human rights aren’t exactly something you can map to the political spectrum.
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LOL - if he does have any legal council, they are probably hyperventilating into a bag right now.
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Deliberately. One of the first thing that Harper went after was the Canadian Census. It’s easy to promote new policies based on hand-waving opinions when there are no unfortunate facts to contradict them.
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The statistic I’ve read is that based on current population shifts, by 2040, 70% of the population will live in 15 states. (It doesn’t really matter if they’re currently red or blue, nor if the states they’re leaving are red or blue - populated states are going to be blue, depopulated states will very much tend to be red, given how the dynamics work.) So the remaining rural 30% of the population will have 70% of the senators (and the consequent electoral college power, too). And because of caps on representatives, because states like Wyoming aren’t gaining population, and California is - like crazy - the relative political power of California citizens just gets worse. I suppose the saving grace is that some of the smaller states are blue. It’s just that when we talk about 30% of the population having hugely disproportionate political power, and Trump’s approval rating is 30%, I get veeeeeeery nervous.
Yeah, it’s really hard to know where his incompetence leaves off and the malice begins.
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The story out of the White House is that Trump’s legal council is taking responsibility for that tweet, in an attempt to try to dodge the bullet Trump just shot at his own foot. But that’s actually even worse…
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Baka! He has no idea what other swords are hanging over Flynn right now.
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That’s certainly looking at things in the most optimistic fashion. Yes, there’s lots and lots of speculation that Mueller is going to nail Trump and Co. to the wall and, yes, it’s possible that, in the long run, rational people will take charge of our country.
However, there are other ways too look at our current situation. Since they were test cases for the GOP, we might look at, say, Alabama and Kansas to see what our national future looks like . . . and if anything, opposition to the GOP in those states is less than what it was twenty years ago. GOP rule in Kansas and Alabama has destroyed any real opposition and at the same time run those states into the ground. Gerrymandering, voter suppression, owning the courts and the media, running all three branches of government, and crushing any opposition at all for the last twenty years has created situations where the likelihood of rational government in the near future is not likely. Sure, both of those states are being run into the ground and, sure, the demographics of both states have slightly improved for the Dems but . . . if anything there’s less opposition now than there was twenty years ago.
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They’ve got their shirts on. No sign of Russian collusion there.
That’s in line with some things I’ve heard. But I think it assumes a couple of things that aren’t necessarily the case. First that the rough division of party affiliation/preference we have now will persist. Which is where all that demographic change comes in. The US is expected to become majority non-white along the same time frame. And 20 more years of majority conservative generations being replaced in the electorate by majority liberal ones. And of course even those younger Americans who are conservative are considerably less conservative. Particularly on social issues than the current GOP.
It’s also not exactly far off from what we’ve already got going. Apparently something like 60% of the population already resides on either coast. And something near 80% lives in the vicinity of a city.
It also assumes that GOP support can’t erode for other reasons. Even if Trump grade disasters or abject failures of his policies don’t neccisarily change people’s minds. It tend to suppress turn out and enthusiasm. Particularly if he is impeached. The impeachment of a president is a massive embarrassment. And it’s assumed to bring with it massive backlash at the polls. That’s why they’re avoiding it. Right now the consequences of impeaching him look worse to them than the consequences of keeping him around.
Yes but the base cause of that is not demographic. It’s not as if those states. And similar ones are suddenly unified in their preference for this shit. It’s the manipulation of elections, courts etc that have given them such a lock. Along with a close focus on state and county level elections the last decade. In the vast majority of states. Even solidly blue ones. That creates that situation. You can change that, fix that, fight that. You generally can’t fight demographics without changing policy and ideology to appeal to new groups. The GOP is actively doing the opposite.
Frankly it just seems really likely to me that the GOPs current coalition of demographic groups isn’t sustainable. They just have a really narrow slice of the population. One that’s already becoming an ever smaller portion of the nation as a whole. There isn’t suddenly going to be more old white people in the population. And that’s the base purpose behind all that manipulation. If you can’t or won’t attract new groups. And the ones you have are leaving or shrinking. Well rig the game.
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After incriminating himself with compulsive tweeting, Trump is now claiming that Comey is lying and he never asked him to end the investigation. All the mindless Trump zombies will go along with it.
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All true, except for the “their guy.” He really ISN’T their guy. The vast majority of Republican’s in congress wanted somebody else in the primary. Trump is an outsider, not really one of them at all. Some now support Trump out of party loyalty, some out of political calculation, but most out of fear. Not fear of Trump, because many of them were in Congress under Obama, and they know just how well Congress can constrain the power of the president. But they are fearful of the people who elected Trump. They’re afraid of Trumpist primary challenges that will remove them from power. Certainly the “Traditional Christian” (anti-abortion and anti-gay) wing would vastly prefer Pence.
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Where Trumps incompetence and disinterest end, somebody else’s scheming and malice begin. If there’s somebody playing seven-dimensional chess and making long range plans in the White House, it sure isn’t Trump.
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Trump is playing 0 dimensional chess, and losing.
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That’s the thing though. So far he’s burned through a couple of Somebody Elses. Bannon is gone, Manafort, Kurshners supposedly been in and out of his good graces several times. And is probably only still a factor because he’s married to Trump’s favorite child. He keeps flip flopping on congressional republicans. Sometimes multiple times in one day. Scandal and Trump’s own capriciousness have largely seen him turning on anyone who ends up in an influential enough position to use Trump to their own ends.
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Yes, but at what point, when you brainlessly fall for the hype and support the fascists do you yourself deserve to be lumped in with them?
(definitely going to be avoiding the obvious pre WWII reference here…)
Just saying…
My huge fear is that the hard-core 30% Trumpers, the racist, fascist ones, will heavily overlap with the 30% of small state dwellers who will have the greatest political power. If that’s not the case, that’s hugely reassuring. That would mean that “only” voter suppression and gerrymandering need to be fought…
Yeah, there’s that, but then there’s also Trump’s malice. Malice crippled by incompetence, but malice nonetheless.
I keep saying that Trump’s not even playing chess. He’s like a monkey who has been seated next to a chessboard. If he’s picked up a piece, it’s only to see if there’s something that might interest him underneath it, or to make room so he can crap on the board. (The only thing distinguishing the monkey from Trump is the degree of metaphor. And that varies.)
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