The radiation goes with its source, but if the radiation is stuck to the inside of a centrifuge, then the whole centrifuge needs to be moved. That’s not a suitcase. That’s a centrifuge, a piece of equipment that is larger than a person:
And they need thousands of them to make enough material for a bomb. Again, this is not suitcases. These are devices the size of a man. Read more about the scenarios for them to produce a weapon here.
Known sites are going to be monitored in real-time, so the 24 day thing doesn’t apply to the places we already know about. The 24 day thing only applies to new suspected activity sites. As if there are going to be “sites.” They will put it in trucks and move it around, if they haven’t already. And they are likely to be hard at work building secret underground skunkworks facilities to run more centrifuges and construct their bomb.
Who are we kidding? The Revolutionary Guard isn’t stupid. I’m sure they are already well on their way or even have completed construction on secret facilities, or have mobile units in production. If the Mexican drug cartels can dig a mile-long tunnel to a prison, then the government of a nation with a $415 billion GDP can pour concrete underground in a place nobody knows about but them.
The only thing we have going for us is that centrifuging uranium takes massive parallel effort of many centrifuges working around the clock to amass enough fissile material to become useful. Or to allow a power reactor to enrich it, but that was stopped by the treaty. For them to construct such an enrichment facility under our noses, we hope, would not be possible. But as I said, no agreement or amount of time is going to save us from secret activity.
Logically then, why even enter an agreement? The reason is that for the known sites, the agreement does the best that it can to keep those facilities peaceful and allows for a return to economic sanctions should it be discovered that Iran has violated the terms.
Think about it. It’s estimated that Iran has between $50 and $120 billion frozen in European banks. That freeze is about to be lifted. Initially Iran will take a large withdrawal. But as Iran’s economy heats up again, that amount of money in foreign hands is likely to skyrocket. At that point, should there be a bomb and should they threaten Israel, then all that money would again be subject to a re-freeze. Iran will be at a crossroads: is playing fairly on the world stage more or less important than unilaterally trying to destroy Israel?
This game of logic could end with the detonation of a few bombs in Israel, followed by the total annihilation of Iran. Or it could end with Iran finally realizing they aren’t the big kid on the playground and learning to play nice. My opinion is that the smart people in Iran will eventually prevail and prevent disaster.
As far as the agreement: just one piece in the complicated pie, but a useful tool.
