I’m totally comfortable with my normal ignorance - but by chance not in this case (though I’m not sure if the divide was absolute and I have questions)
There is little doubt that Iran supported the Bahrain’s Shiite uprsing of 2011.
Iran has been quite active in Yemen recently.
The Saudi’s sincerely believe the Iranians are stirring trouble with Saudi’s own Shiites – which matters, because those Shia’s live over one of the key oilfields.
and Iraq ---- Iran has been heavily involved in Iraq since Saddam was evicted. The Badr Brigades, with Iranian genreals, are but one of many examples. Also, Iran had a training camp in in Iran for training shia militias how to build better IEDs.
I don’t necessarily think all of these actions put Iran in a bad light. Bahrain’s Shiites are absolutely an oppressed minority, so of course Iran takes an interest in their plight.
But the list places where Iran intervenes, usually violently, in support of Shiites is extensive.
Speaking of Hezbollah, Hezbollah’s claim to a Lebanese movement defending against Israeli aggression (which it was) is pretty much in tatters because of it’s Syrian involvement.
Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy. period.
So Hezbollah’s actions are, to a degree, Iran’s . Such as that nasty business in Argentina in 1994.
2 Likes
Probably the Donald, but his is in gold leaf.
They are restricted out of military bases and have to give two weeks notice before an inspection.
That’s not a good characterization of the truth, so let’s just get a source:
Did you actually read that article? It agrees completely with me and it is actually worse than I said. That article says that it is actually up to 24 days to inspect a suspected site, not 14. It agrees that the sanctions don’t “snap back” and that reinstating the sanction would be hard. Seriously, go read your own article.
Look, I am actually for the agreement. I am just don’t let my political bias give me a delusional view about the nature of the agreement. The agreement is worthless. It is nothing but a face saving measure. If Iran wants to build nukes, the agreement is going to help them because, as the article points out, it saves their economy, and gives them a pile of cash. If they want to keep building nukes, it gives them the clandestine path to do it and even if they get caught it gives them paths to keep the sanctions from turning back on. If Iran is dead set on building nukes regardless, this agreement is a gift from heaven.
The agreement is absolutely worthless if Iran is a bad actor that wants nukes. However, what the agreement does do for the US is twofold. First, it gives moderates in Iran some air. I suspect it isn’t enough for them to do anything useful; the conservative elements in Iran pretty powerful, but who knows? Maybe by some minor miracle this is all Iran needed to rejoin the world stage, cut the crap, and build themselves into a more functional democracy. I doubt it, but I could be wrong. Second, it gives the US a pretty handy way to not go to war. Iran can play its shell game with nukes and we can pretend to be the clueless nubs who don’t see it. They can move their nuclear bomb building facilities around and have more than enough time to escape inspections should they be detected. A mobile clandestine program will be slower and smaller, meaning that they can only build enough nukes for basic self defense. Frankly, a nuclear armed Iran isn’t a threat to the US. It is just one more nation we are not allowed to fuck with, which is just fine by me.
The agreement is better than nothing. Let there be no doubt on that point. Hell, even if the agreement was worse than nothing, it is too late because we can’t renege on the deal and have Europe keep holding the sanctions. Just don’t let your personal bias blind you towards the fact that the agreement is pretty much useless as anything other than a face saving gesture if Iran actually wants to get nukes in a clandestine way.
1 Like
Of course I read the article. But I don’t hold your opinions. You used a lot of pejoratives like useless and delusional, which don’t really bolster your case. The fact is that now, there are NO inspections and accountability, and if the agreement goes into effect, there will be.
Also, stuff that’s not in the agreement: As it stands now, we have very little leverage over Russia and China in the UN security council on Iran. With an agreement that they’ve signed onto, the playing field regarding Iran may become more rational.
Secondly, with the agreement, we can lean on Europe to do more of the lifting. They should be anyways, because this is their back yard. Why does the US have to “go it alone” and do all the expensive stuff? We shouldn’t and that’s why we voted for a Democrat to get into the white house, because the majority are sick of all the Halliburton-style graft. And soon, we’re going to elect Bernie to further reduce the sway that the military-industrial complex holds over our country. It’s hard to get rid of that militaristic and corporate-fascist type of thinking, but we are on that path and we need to do it. The Iran agreement is just one more piece of that complicated pie.
Third, you cite the freeze on Iranian funds as something positive, as if it has had the intended effect. It hasn’t. And releasing the funds will not suddenly give them super-Saiyan power to instantaneously produce a bomb. That’s overdramatic hand-waving that you must have lifted from Fox news or Hannity or someplace.
2 Likes
I sometimes think Satan looks down on Christians to the point where he would just refuse any of them entry when they turn up at the black gates of hell.
The line must be worse than Magic Mountain.
2 Likes
It stretches all the way back to Terre Haute.
2 Likes
What was that whooshing sound?
2 Likes
srlsy, Do they also have a mountain with magical properties?
I don ge tit.
You know ultra-Suni Desh will never have traction in a Shia area?
Maybe you are right, but I don’t want to have a power vacuum to test it. Whoever fills it will almost certainly be an extreme authoritarian bastard regardless of their religious beliefs. At least we know where we stand with Iran.
Maybe the Libertarian-Marxism of The Party of Free Life of Kurdistan will spread further into Iran given time, though its not like the US government will see that as being any better. I really don’t see any other options without someone else invading.
& Iran wouldn’t have gone into the negotiations if they did not also want to know where they stand with us.
1 Like
I made the claim that if Iran wants to be a bad actor, the proposed inspection regime is useless. As your own article states, it gives them basically a month’s heads up to pack up and move anything that is detected. The inspections are, no seriously, useless against a clandestine program. Why do you think they agreed to 24 days? Why isn’t it 2 days? It is 24 days because that is more than enough time to dismantle any secretly discovered program. The US agreed to it despite the fact that it renders hunting for clandestine programs useless because it wants off the ride.
I’m not saying that Iran wants to be a bad actor, simply that if it wants to be, this agreement is pretty great. They get their money, they can keep their clandestine program, and if the clandestine program is discovered, they have more than enough time to destroy/move the evidence and prevent the so called “snap back” sanctions. On the other hand, if Iran has no intentions to go for the bomb and just wanted a face saving measure, this works out pretty well for that. I think you or I guessing about what Iran’s internal politics is going to do is pretty pointless. We don’t know. I am not sure even our own government knows.
I am not sure how you think this agreement is going to “lean on Europe”. Europe doesn’t have to do anything other than lift their sanctions. They are not going to come charging in guns blazing regardless of what happens. Europe has even less interest in any sort of conflict than the US does.
Lol, ok. If you think Bernie is the most likely guy to be elected in 2016 than maybe you and I have slightly different perceptions of reality. I like the guy, but I am not delusional enough to think that he stands a slim chance in hell.
The funds don’t build bombs. They shore up the domestic economy. Iran’s internal economy is in free fall. This agreement is going to fix them right up, regardless if they want to play nice or not.
Like I said, I am all for the agreement. I am just not delusional about what is capable of accomplishing. If Iran wants the bomb, it is just going to slow them down a little and give them the ability to build a clandestine program while being out from under sanctions. If Iran wants to join the world stage and liberal forces are in control of the country, than the agreement is the face saving agreement they needed to start down that road. It is better than nothing to be sure, but if Iran wants nukes, it is a gift. Frankly, I like the agreement because I just don’t care if Iran has nukes. Either they join the world community with this agreement, or they finally get their nukes. A nuclear armed Iran doesn’t keep me up at night. It might actually moderate Israel a little bit, and it would certainly keep the US from going stupid trying to invade the country.
Eh, the experts seem to think the clandestine rout would be extraordinarily difficult and the “few” years is 10-15 which is a heck of a lot longer than the any minute now our leaders have been telling us. So unless they already build one and have hidden it away, we can rest easy they won’t for awhile.
And the disingenuous right has been telling us that the bomb is why we have to go to war. A war that the public won’t support, Europe won’t support, and Russia would actively oppose. Aka; a really expensive loser. After which we could probably get them to pinky swear not to pick up where they left off.
1 Like
it’s my understanding that radiation doesn’t jump in a suitcase when you tell it. Inspectors might use a Geiger counter
1 Like
The Kurds have seemed a really cool oppressed but standing up group PKK and other, but nobody with a bullshit border wants to chop off that much land to make a Kurdistan which will grow to fill other Kurdish areas. Most people do not do well being ruled by who is percived as a minority, the middle east is a boiling example of what happens when borders are arbitrarily drawn to satisfy WW-I era French and English interests and minorities are allowed to rule by world powers over majority populations.
It actually does jump in the suitcase. The radiation goes with its source. You can scrub an area pretty effectively. If you are still getting radiation after having scrubbed an area, you are doing something dangerously wrong. The only kind of radiation that sticks around after the radiation source is gone is the scary alpha particle kind that makes you dead if you swallow it.
Again, why do you think they picked 24 days? The only reason to give that much time is to move stuff. Seriously, the inspection regime of this agreement is specifically designed to not catch anyone red handed.
Eh, just enough of them to count.
