Exactly that.
Combined with bickering, infighting, and an inability of the second correct and lawful government being able to get it’s act together. They’re not going to go away, but it will create huge stress on the system as each entity grapples with which government they follow.
Most bureaucrats we assume will follow the lawful one. But, the other will be out in full force trying to convince them they are actually the lawful one through force of will and repetition of message. Rank and file bureaucrats have bills and can’t just all quit. The side that keeps the paycheck coming has a huge advantage.
Just look at the DOJ and it’s leadership apparently ignoring the rule of law. There have been some resignations, but the department as a whole is still functioning just fine to work towards incorrect outcomes.
When enforcing the law can be ignored and there is no consequence, it’s practically a coup already.
As a political appointee, his expiration date is the same as Trump’s. The House of Representatives, The judiciary, and the states can ignore him - heck, non-political members of the DOJ can simply ignore everything Barr has to say after 1/20/2021. He has no power that is not derived directly from the lawfully elected president. He will have no standing. Given the way the whole administration has treated the “deep state,” I would imaging their treatment of administration officials would vary from respectful disregard to outright hostility, even to immediate arrest and detention.
Congress would just send laws for signature to whomever the lawful president is - whether there’s an election where the states submit electors, the vote goes to the House, or whether all of that fails to happen and it defaults to Pelosi, it doesn’t really matter. The business of government will go on, leaving Trump administration officials behind on the side of the road like passengers kicked off a Greyhound bus, regardless of their physical location.
I think the intent is that if the Electoral College fails to produce a President Elect, that duty clearly falls on the House. (And it’s not uncharted waters, it’s been done before.)
The problems with the order of secession are:
- Any replacement is limited to the same term as the current President.
- Ignoring that… With no election, on January 20th, noon, there is no President, no House of Representatives, and a third of the Senate is missing.
No Speaker of the House, succession falls on the President Pro Tem of the Senate, the senior member of the controlling party, which would now be the Democratic Party, which would be the other Senator from Vermont. President Leahy.
Naturally the Supreme Court would be called in. I think they’d go with the House having the duty to elect the President as the historical course.
Yeah - good luck. I don’t think even Barr would has that big of balls. There is absolutely zero legal ground to stand on.
There are only a handful of things I’d consider attending in the form of an armed protest, and Trump suspending the election and staying past Jan 20th is one of them.
That’s kind of the point. We’ve seen the DOJ go to court and argue over the definition of basic treatment of children in ICE custody.
Yesterday, they argued to the Supreme Court that any investigation of the President for any reason while he was active president was a burden to the presidency and not allowed. No matter the issue or when it occurred.
We’ve seen Barr on video in an interview contradict himself with two statements holding that both are true and correct seconds apart, and face no consequence for it.
It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Barr and by extension the DOJ argue that the term ending doesn’t apply for some reason, no matter how ridiculous and twisted the reason is. That the argument is wrong on it’s face doesn’t matter.
I agree with everyone that all of these lawful things are designed specifically to prevent this issue and give government a way forward. The issue isn’t a legal process one, when the legal process doesn’t matter.
I dunno man. Start a civil war, potentially get executed is a pretty big jump from plutocratic graft by stretching the system.
That’s part and parcel of speculation on this front. It inevitably spins out into “hey there’s a civil war”. It’s all about “what if Trump just…” But never accounts for all those other parties that might just say no. Once you jump past any process that can be worked there’s little reason for opposing parties not to.
What if Trump declares himself immortal true leader for life tomorrow? And absolutely noone goes with it?
If things enter this space I think its more likely Trump cooks up some fiction to order the arrest of congressional Democrats. Probably using ICE, since they’re loyal top to bottom. I also don’t think a clash like that would go his way.
Why assume the coup throwers can?
We’ve got every indication that 60ish percent of the country already doesn’t buy their shit. And that wouldn’t be a situation where it’s business as usual let’s negotiate over pork. You’re talking a constitutional crisis on the order of the civil war.
This discussion never gets into that. It’s not about who does the IRS collect money for, what happens if the two side issue arrest orders for each other. How much of the military lines up behind each.
It just assumes Trump will take a much, much, much more drastic, destructive step and the status quo will otherwise continue. A gradual shift to autocracy takes considerably more steps, and a veil of legitimacy. Key among them cutting out all that opposition we still have.
Where’s the arrest of other branches of government. Where’s the clash between different police forces and factions within the military. Why the fuck would New York or California just line up behind a Trump Shadow government. Why would Europe consider it valid? How do all those non GOP voters and politicians in GOP states react? Very few American cities, making up the bulk of the economy, are anything but DNC controled. How does that play out?
It’s a considerably darker, more complicated bit of speculation than it’s usually treated as. And it jumps the situation well beyond internal disputes about rule of law and the limits of presidential power.
And yet individual regional offices are still operating as they should. The Southern and Eastern Districts of New York are still investigating and arresting people in Trump’s administration, California, Washington DC and Pennsylvania were all involved in pursuing guys like Flynn against pressure from the top.
Plus you have independent State authorities. There are still likely charges waiting for Trump in New York. And it’s pretty obvious there’s more to be found.
They may not be gaining much traction at the moment but Trump’s shit in this direction can largely be looked at as delay tactics.
It’s by majority vote of all Senators. Just like Speaker. All congressional positions are.
Leahy is assumed to be the next DNC President Pro Tempore as he’s held that position before, and sits in the equivalent non-majority position with the level of seniority that usually gets the nod.
But they aren’t required to pick him and it isn’t automatic. Given that picking the Pro Tempore in that situation is picking the president. You gotta figure they’d put more thought into it.
Yes. If an election happens, and it fails to produce a Pres. Elect.
But if the election hasn’t happened yet when the terms end. You’ve got a vacant seat situation, and that’s what succession is for. Apparently it’s fairly well established legal theory and one of the intents behind laying out succession past the VP during the cold war. The concern then was that nuclear war would physically prevent an election, rather than some one might try to cancel or delay one.
It’s a “There must always be a Stark in Winterfell” situation, intended to patch the constitutional gap left by the constitution only referencing the VP and only accounting for a split election.
They didn’t in Bush v Gore. And that was a much different court.
That said many states are required to hold an election, and even vote by their constitutions. Trump isn’t gonna get that changed by the end of the year. Attempts to and a lot of the disputes about an unclear result rolling out of them will wind up in state courts.
Where they couldn’t even be appealed to the Supreme Court and States are unlikely to accept attempts to end round their authority.
A lot of the “can’t do that” on this is inherently practical. Short of marching troops into New York how the hell is Trump gonna stop them from voting and sending electors if they want to?
Anything else is a court shit fit with a hard deadline. And either the end of his term or a disputed result puts it in a DNC controlled part of congress.
That would be an improvement!
Thank you. It’s somewhat frustrating to see people spinning out these weird “What if Trump declares himself King of America and orders Hillary beheaded?” non-scenarios.
Much like the “What if Trump orders the military to nuke San Fransisco?” stuff, I think the most plausible result of such an (extremely unlikely) situation would be Trump tackled and sat upon by his Secret Service detail, while the agent in charge calls Pence and tells him to invoke 25th amendment, since the President has lost his marbles. With the strong implication that trying to do anything funny gets him tackled and sat upon by his USSS detail, while someone calls Nancy Pelosi and tells her she’s in charge now.
Except the secret service is in the job of defending the president and not disobeying orders, and his entire cabinet is filled with incompetent sycophantic yes men who don’t give a shit about him wrecking the country. 
There is no evidence to suggest that they care about the rule of law at all, much less defending democratic norms. And why should they, as they are getting theirs. They don’t care if we literally die (people are actually dying in a pandemic, and they are still supporting this president), so why should they care if there are no elections in November.
What’s disturbing, even beyond the answer to the question, is that the question got asked at all. It’s just normalizing the authoritarianism of this administration. It’s not up to them, why ask and act like it is? It’s about a half-step from asking, “Will you be summarily executing your political opponents, the enemies of the people?”
Amendment XX leaves little room for any shenanigans about it
The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January
It’s not the same though.
Trump giving an order that requires someone to do something clearly wrong, requires someone to take an action vs simply ignore it. Even McGahn ignored and didn’t pass along a request.
Trump refusing to accept the election outcome (or an election not happening) and declaring that he’s still president requires someone to take action against it instead of just ignoring it.
Say, he becomes a squatter in the White House. Giving press conferences, that are covered live because the media is incapable of not showing a train wreck. He’ll actively twist reality to say he’s legitimate. Some can simply ignore him, accept the new correct government. But, if that lie and imposed reality is done by all of the political executive branch, it will force someone farther down the hierarchy to take action. People who are career bureaucrats, that need the job and cannot afford to quit or be fired. They’re going to be forced to follow whomever they see as providing their paycheck. It’s not fair to place all our hopes on them.
Instead, we will expect the new legal government to force removing him from the White House. Likewise for all the executive branch political appointees. They will be giving the order to the Secret Service to remove the president. At that point, agents are put in the position of determining which they believe. There’s no way to simply ignore them at all levels while they claim they’re still in control. The legitimate government will also be struggling with the decision to make that order, or to spend months (years?) in court getting a ruling that they are the legitimate government.
Part of the wonder of our government is the smooth transition of power and control between elected offices as terms end and new officials are elected. This works because everyone, both the exiting and entering officials believes in the system. But, if that’s no longer true, and the exiting side refuses to exit or even acknowledge they should exit, then what happens? There’s no shame or societal norm that will impact their actions. They’re playing with a different set of rules.
Today, it’s still a far jump to this. But, give it time, they’ll be pushing this for months. The president tweeted murder allegations at a journalist, and nobody blinked an eye. What’s “just another day” keeps shifting.
Side note: @Ryuthrowsstuff responses are always a great and an appreciated read. This one clearly took time, as it flashed on and off showing a response being typed for a long time. It delivered wonderfully then.
The Secret Service doesn’t take orders from the president. And weirdly protecting politicians is kind of a side line.
They’re Treasury police and take their orders from their own organization and leadership, rather than who they’re protecting. Sort of like if you were a witness to a crime and the regular police gave you a protective detail. Those cops wouldn’t take orders from you.
I highly doubt they’d be jumping Trump and arresting him (and on what grounds anyway?). Unless the individual agents are personally motivated to do anything.
But they’re more than likely to just go home if he stops being president but stirs some shit. They’re not neccisarily obligated to protect any one person. And they’re certainly not obligated to stand in the way of other authorities. But they are obligated to ignore or refuse illegal orders.
Horror scenario #1: Tromp ‘opens-up’ America to provoke COVID’s second wave, justifying an emergency martial law decree, with opponents held in “protective custody” and troops deployed at every ‘suspect’ voting office to “maintain order”.
Horror scenario #2: Art.II Sect.1 says states shall appoint electors according to state law. GOP-run states pass new laws granting their governor the appointment power, regardless of popular votes. Tromp cruises in all legal and everything.
Horror scenario #3: Terrible tragedies befall Sen Biden and other elderly legislators, candidates, and SCOTUS justices. Gosh, if only they had peaceably gone into custody for safekeeping!
I’m trying to see a brighter future. I’m blinking.
I often type things out between tasks at work when I’m a bit bored. That means it can take a while to finish something. Though it does help with thinking things through, provided nothing complicated distracts me.
This is sort of the same thing. Trump can shout that he’s still president, but if no one takes an action to make it so. He’s just standing on the lawn of the White House shouting at the movers. He’s not just in charge by virtue of occupying a building, other parts of the government still need to take actions validating that. A congress has to send him bills, a treasury has to cut checks and accept taxes on his behalf.
And imagine if it ends up in that two presidents situation, some parts of the government answering to Trump. Other’s answering to the more legit president.
Trump can’t just keep going that way, that’s not still being president. It’s a dispute, he has to do something about the other party to be in control. He has to take some action to legitimize himself and consolidate power.
So again, why do we never talk about opposition that we know exists? Does he just not leave the White House ever again? Washington DC is a Democrat controlled city. Even if he doesn’t do anything to enforce his claim, just running with the delay till it all works out approach. You don’t think that when he steps out into a city controlled by his opposition that they’ll do something to enforce their claim?
This isn’t the Secret Service’s job. Law enforcement wise their jurisdiction is over Counterfeiting and certain banking crimes. Including forged checks IIRC. It’s conceivable that in a situation where everything is outside the law, that the SS would want to remove Trump and they would agree to do so (or do so on their own) because they have the ability. That’s about as plausible as some portion of the military stepping in.
But again this is coup shit. Government is gone shit. Not normal order of operations shit.
Congress has control of the capital police/Sargent at Arms. DOJ wise the state level offices outside of the main DC office and Office of the Attorney General would likely back the other president or congress. As most of them are already seemingly at odds with the AG and whatever the fuck is going on in Washington. FBI might have a similar issue, leadership purged enough to back Trump. Field offices unhappy about it enough not to. Not sure what’s up with Homeland Security, but they’re kind fucked in general. ICE and CBP effectively belong to Trump personally.
And the US marshals are answerable to the Courts.
That’d be about the breath of Law Enforcement with legitimizing Jurisdiction here. So big ole cluster fuck of factions. And I don’t see any reason to believe they’d all just back Trump automatically cause he says so.
All in a city that is already in the opposition.
Why is this anybody asking Jared about this? He has no authority in that area and no expertise.
This kind of thing could actually happen. America is not as much of a democracy as we might wish.
It’s worth counting up how many states are run by Republicans—but where Trump could lose the popular vote—to see whether they’d be motivated to play games like this.
After 9/11 the Secret Service was reorganized to report to DHS, which did not previously exist
Perhaps he wants to be the Ciano of Benito Trumpolini (but he may not have read about what happened to Ciano after Benito got mad with him.)
The President of the United States doesn’t have the power to postpone or cancel elections. The states are in charge of electing House members, senators, and presidential electors. Congress can regulate how states do it, but currently one of the chambers is controlled by Democrats, so I doubt they will go along with any plans to mess with the elections. While Republican-controlled states could decide not to elect and send their representatives to Washington, I don’t think that Democratic-controlled states would do so. The result would be that overwhelmingly Democratic majorities would be elected.
