My concern is that because both Gorsuch and Kavanaugh have not been the pillars of conservativism and Nostradumbass butt kissing loyalty the GOP and he desired…his nominee could be a conservative right wing loon. and McConnell and the GOP will approve.
It will only take two dissenting republicans to block it, which is possible (Romney, Collins, and Murkowski do come to mind - not that I am holding my breath).
that would be misguided. at this point she has everything to gain and nothing to lose by voting for trump nominees. she knows that most liberals won’t forgive her for her vote on kavanaugh, and conservatives and “moderates” will be enthusiastic about her support of a conservative nominee. she’s facing a tough race and has little chance of getting much bipartisan support.
i missed that, but it’s mildly reassuring if we can trust her, which i am not inclined to.
Same. I’ve been able to take things in stride and adapt to the needed changes 2020 has brought. I don’t know fully why yet, but losing RBG right now is just a very hard hit to take.
No, it will take four. The Republicans have 53 senate seats. They can lose three of those votes and still get the nominee through with Pence’s tiebreaking vote.
In Maine, she has nothing to gain by supporting a nomination. Maine is a very centrist/progressive state and she’s maintained her Senate seat through a coalition of Democrats and Independents. Right now, she’s lost all of those, almost entirely because of Kavanaugh, and supporting any McConnell/Trump action to seat someone before January 20th of 2021 would most certainly cost the GOP that seat. Her only hope is to strongly come out against it and round up other GOP senators in support to form a group that would block this action. That would give her some chance of holding on.
We’ll see, though. I’m cautiously optimistic, but that’s the only way I’m able to get through all this right now. Got to cling to something (and meanwhile, calling all my senators and Congressional reps, though they’re all Dems so I don’t have any need to sway them at all).
I think reminding them that now is not the time to compromise and meet in the middle is still worthwhile (unless the compromise is to wait until after January).
Three, unfortunately. Pence would be the tie breaker. That’s how broken this system is.
ETA: No, @mcsnee is right. I forgot it was 53/47 right now.
No, still four.
53 - 3 = 50 + pence.
Beat me to it again!
Well that sucks, but it isn’t unexpected.
If the Republicans had any integrity they would wait for after the election like under Obama. But they don’t.
I really wish they would stop calling themselves that. They are all trumpians now.
True, but Trump or no Trump, they would try to ram through a selection if given the opportunity.
Also, in case there’s any doubt (and I’m sure there isn’t) about whether Mitch’s ex post facto “justification” for his about-face is even plausible:
His argument is that the 2018 midterm elections delivered Senate republicans a mandate to support Trump judicial nominees because he expanded his majority. He did so only because of a dramatically unfavorable map for Democrats.
In 2018, the cumulative popular vote in all U.S. Senate elections reflected a massive rejection of Republicans, McConnell, and Trumpism. Democratic candidates for senator earned over 52,000,000 votes, versus 35 million for Republicans. That’s a 58%-39% shellacking of the Republicans.
Mitch McConnell only ever argues in the worst possible faith.
I’ll just throw this out there since there’s so much discussion on whether or not RBG should have retired under Obama:
Late last year / early this year some political analysts speculated that septuagenarian justice Thomas might strategically retire in order to ensure that he would be replaced by a conservative, and also to help energize Trump’s base in the lead up to the election by granting him the chance to make another appointment. Thus far that hasn’t happened. I’ll take good news where I can.
right. I miscounted the independents. @anon55735979
It is still possible. Regardless of likelihood.
Your calculus is the only real way a nominee gets blocked. Purple states are the key to this mess.
FUCK! Fuck, fuck, fuck, FUUUUUCK YOU 2020!
Couldn’t somebody just Weekend at Bader’s her until inaguration day?
Prediction: confirmation by the Republican caucus without debate, in unannounced midnight session without the Democrats even in the room, even before the nominee’s name is announced to the press.
The vote is unanimous, with Graham, Collins, Grassley and Murkowski voting PRESENT. (Or NO, it doesn’t matter) while answering the quorum call. (The Senate quorum is 51 Senators, so it can do business without the minority party in the room.) You can expand the list with as many abstentions as you please: the vote could go with only McConnell on record as supporting the nomination: a vote of 1-0 with fifty Senators voting ‘PRESENT’ so that they aren’t on record as supporting the charade.
Nightmare scenario: That process confirms nominee without judicial experience, perhaps even a non-lawyer, because anyone who actually is familiar with the Constitution will be too unreliable for Trump. David Clarke or Joe Arpaio, perhaps? Or Ivanka?
The AI apolcalypse already happened.
The Constitution specifies that a Supreme Court justice serves during good behaviour. That’s been interpreted by the courts as meaning that they can be removed only through resignation or impeachment, but I would bet that the majority of justices _could_get away with disbarring the minority if there were to be an executive order demanding the minority’s resignation.
