he’s failed in the gop primaries so frequently, let’s hope this is another of the same
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And since they’ve unilaterally stated that they want the appeals process to work as designed, we won’t see what they are going to decide until probably late January at the very earliest. ::sighs::
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This. Even if by some miracle she wins the GOP nomination, I doubt a majority in that party would vote for her. They’ll publicly support the lie that 45 is in great shape, but knowing that is not true is why they wouldn’t want Haley on the ticket as VP. That reaction from Bannon @danimagoo posted above is a common example of how they talk about women in (or pursuing) positions of power.
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I believe she’s the GOP establishment candidate but has much less support among average Republican voters.
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I’ll be happy to see her beat Trump in New Hampshire, as a) probably the best of a bad lot and b) also causing harm to TFG’s reelection run. But I don’t see it. I see him winning the New Hampshire primary anyway, and that being the closest she gets.
To be clear, I still consider both her and the policies she supports awful. And I still see either of them losing to Biden eventually, and thankfully.
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Or, better yet, a full third MAGA party is created, not just splitting the vote, but splitting off most of the “social conservative” moral legislation agenda with it. For reasons I don’t fully understand, a lot of voters seems to feel the need to change their governance philosophy based on wind direction, so a conservative party is an unfortunate necessity (probably?), but it has been perverted and bent into a machine of hatred and self-victimization. I’m willing to have debates about the merits of fiscal conservatism, not the value of equal human rights.
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That would be tough for Biden in the sense that some who would otherwise vote blue would jump at the chance to vote for a woman of color without considering her positions. But sexism and racism are so deeply engrained into MAGA that they would never vote for her. It would lead to a serious clusterfuck.
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I want this. Just this part…
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Tbh she isn’t as obviously nonwhite and people are shallow. I can see Texas mainstream Republicans (think schoolteachers in Spring) voting for her but the party would never accept it imo. The Texas GOP are partially the architects of the Trump fascist dictatorship afaik. That monster is their baby and they already sold their souls.
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I’d settle for mass layoffs amongst the pollsters and attention-hungry aggregators like Nate Silver who give the Beltway media the science-y support they need to pull this shoddy trick every primary season.
The GOP establishment may prefer Haley on matters of policy and stability. However, they want Biff to be the nominee because they simply can’t win without the Know-Nothing 27% and winning is more important than anything else to them. Otherwise they’d be insisting he show up at the debates.
The corporate media with its photo-finish horse-race mentality is on board with this as well, even though they always like to pretend early in the primaries that a candidate with more appeal to the 70% of Americans who aren’t right-wing nuts, party hacks, or C-suite executives is suddenly gaining on the party-annointed front-runner.
By the way, get ready for the traditional follow-up BS story once the duopoly nominees are crowned asking whether a third-party challenger could win. I’m not sure whether their darling will be RFK Jr or Manchin, but they love wasting everyone’s time with that as well.
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Everything you need to know about Nate Silver is this quote from 2012:
“I’d say I’m somewhere in between being a libertarian and a liberal. So if I were to vote, it would be kind of a Gary Johnson versus Mitt Romney decision, I suppose.”
Mitt Romney is a liberal, to Nate Silver.
I still think 538 has some value, if for no other reason than keeping track of the reliability of various polls, at least in comparison to each other. And the one that shows Haley catching up to Trump doesn’t have a great track record.
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he’s no longer at 538 at this point
( eta: and i believe you’re right. he wants to reduce progressive policies to “identity politics” and by “liberal” he means it’s more traditional use of the word, referencing hayek. this post covers it. not sure that it’s actually worth reading though.
he places his framing as “the truth” - while simultaneously saying woke people argue from their ivy league positions of authority. so. whatever.
also can’t not call out that he believes the best adjective to describe opposition to ■■■■■ is “disdain”. and this beautiful, wondrous, perfect footnote.
The reasons for it are beyond the scope of this essay, but SJLs [social justice warriors] have been much more hawkish on COVID
)
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I think the press spin on “Haley is catching up to Trump” it’s more about feeding the horse race media narrative than anything else.
As FiveThirtyEight’s own polling averages clearly show, Haley’s move into second place is more about DeSantis’ ongoing death spiral than anything else. She’s been growing in popularity but no faster than Trump.
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I know, but that polling shows Haley in a distant, distant 3rd, way behind Trump. I’m just talking about the one poll showing her right on Trump’s heels. I think that one is dubious, as is the group that conducted the poll. So yes, the media jumped on that poll because it fits their narrative, but I still think the poll itself needs to be called out as dubious.
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TF does that even mean? Using terms of war vs. peace when talking about a virus causing a global pandemic is a little weird to begin with, but then trying to assume that people on the left are going to not be hawks in that context because they aren’t hawks when it comes to actual war is just completely illogical.
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i love the tone of cool assurance used to convey this deep truth that is both important enough to include and too nuanced to explain. it’s surprising he can be so smart, and yet remain so humble
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I don’t know that she has the approval of enough Republicans or Democrats to be at all successful, I do hope that she pulls ahead enough to damage Trump’s feelings.
#TeamAnyeursm
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Why does anyone think so many polls have the names of newspapers and broadcasters on them? Because they commission them. To write stories about them.
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