Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2019/03/12/poll-shows-old-white-men-lead.html
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deep sigh It is Biden’s turn.
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Too many old white men are in charge of too many things, I agree… but is it really fair to compare Biden and Sanders as if they are an even exchange? I’m literally asking not snarking if we can hedge some of the defenses for a minute, because it doesn’t totally make sense to me…
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It’s still something like ten months until the actual start of the primaries, right? This is not any kind of a “race” yet, this is people by the racetrack passing time by speculating on things without even knowing who, exactly, are going to run.
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to the point @LurksNoMore makes…it’s way too early to call this a race. The reality is that there has to be a real decision by democrat primary voters about who they think can beat Nostradumbass in 2020. The two lines of thinking generally would be…1) pick a far left idealistic candidate or 2) compromise and pick a centrist.
Sure Harris or Biden are not “ideal” liberal candidates…but they are definitely not Republicans and definitely can attract key independent votes and even draw away from Republican party votes.
Bernie could potentially do the same thing too. Warren would be insanely polarizing and draw no conservative voters and most likely split independents which would lead to a repeat of 2016 potentially.
My opinion to those I discuss politics with is…choose your battle. If the ultimate goal is to get Nostradumbass out and get a Dem in the white house again…go with a Biden, it’s as close to a guarantee is you get to winning (it’s never a guarantee…but that would close at least). If getting an idealistic liberal in the WH is most important…then nominate that person but be prepared to potentially lose big as a result.
Change takes time and it moves in relatively small increments.
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That pot isn’t going to stir itself, you know.
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Oh no, Democrats might nominate an experienced candidate who knows Washington, understands politics, has great name recognition, strong polling, and knows how to win elections? Heaven forbid.
Personally, nothing is more important to me that getting the orange one out of office. Biden would wipe the floor with Trump.
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Yeah, probably even ten years ago if you had asked me if I thought a jewish guy had a chance to be elected president, I would have laughed. But Bernie did well in some very, shall we say, goyische districts. Still going to be a handicap in the South, I think.
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Judging by the ranking of candidates, name recognition is basically all this poll is actually about.
That said, Joe “Mike Pence is a decent guy”, “I have no sympathy for millennials” Biden needs to gtfo.
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I think at this point it’s just name recognition and has nothing to do with who leads what. If you gave the average person a list of potential dem candidates, Biden and Sanders are your two biggest names.
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As much as I don’t think either one of these guys is the best candidate, there is something in appealing to people who just want an old white dude in office. Should we be better? Yes. Should we do anything in our power to eject Agent Orange on his stupid, fat ass? Hell to the yes. I’m conflicted.
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That tends to be the only thing polls this early actually respond to.
National visibility is a halfway decent leg up campaign wise. But as Obama did you can make up that ground fast.
Sometimes you can draw rough information out though. With this many candidates out there at the moment you could look if progressives are generally polling better than centrists. But you really can’t make any sort of predictions about what the primary looks like. Or even if any of these people will still be involved in 6 months.
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The sad truth is, there’s really only 10 to 12 states where the American presidential election is decided, and of those, if you win Ohio and Florida you’ve almost certainly clinched it.
Basically, you need need a candidate that will take Ohio and Florida out of the Orange One’s clutches. As of November, those two states still favor Trump over any Democratic candidate.
Please consider that phone to polls will tend to heavily skew towards those who will answer a non-caller-ID phone call which tend to be older folks. That is, if the polls say, for example, that “old white men lead…” you really ought to first question the methodology of the poll itself. (and don’t get me started on web-based/opt-in polling - that crown jewel of skewed polling)
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15 comments in and we still haven’t had the “Wahhh, reverse racism, why do you hate white people?” post yet. Sadly, I’m impressed.
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Considering Biden has spent the last few years burning up a lot of goodwill (think of his student loan comments or his comments on Pence), I think he is far further from a sure thing than people would imagine. Losing a few percent of angry groups here and there to stupid comments adds up and he is notorious for such comments.
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Yeah, put me down as considering this mere name recognition at this stage, and of course older candidates are going to lead: they’ve been on the scene longer, and people know them.
If any of you are surprised by this, raise your hand so that I can sigh and shake my head. And after I have had my moment of smugness, let’s just all agree that Trump needs to be not only defeated, but humiliated.
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You are only as old as you feel.
[take that youngsters]
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So you think Carter 2020? He can still serve another term.
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That’s the spirit fellow American.
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