I think this guy is going to have a public meltdown before November. I don’t think he should be allowed to buy an assault rifle.
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somehow i’ve come to believe that Mitt and his crew are maneuvering behind the scenes to pull off some kind of convention coup. seems like they’re just letting trump dig his own grave, and when the time comes, offer him an exit. after all, trump’s first campaign manager said that he never really actually wanted the nomination, just to be taken seriously. and david rees made the point yesterday that trump’s internal raison d’être is that he has been “leading in the polls” all along… and when it becomes clear he’ll lose to hillary, he’ll quit before he has to become a loser.
hell, Mitt may even run. while under normal circumstances a party would not re-nominate a “loser”, but anything goes this year.
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I think you are totally right, but I think the absolute rightwing or die people account for 35%-40% of the population. This isn’t about Trump losing support of the people who are 75th percentile crazed authoritarians, it is about him needing the vote of people who are only 49th percentile crazed authoritarians. Things could happen, but leaving aside @Mister44’s “eat a baby” exaggeration, if Trump keeps on with politics like yelling a victorious “I called it!” in response to a mass shooting then he’s going to have a hell of a time getting that 50% + 1st person to vote for him.
Honestly, how a mass shooting by a Muslim claiming ties to ISIS hasn’t worked out in Trump’s favour (as the anti-Muslim demagogue candidate) is beyond me. All Trump had to do was say, “This is a terrible day for America,” and let other people talk about whether his anti-Muslim rhetoric would now give him an edge.
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While Trump is bad news for the GOP, not giving him the nomination would also be bad news for the GOP.
Who would ever trust the whole “running” process ever again? Why bother?
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Best case for the GOP is definitely to run Trump and lose. They might not know that.
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Fingers crossed.
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If so that is really frightening. In the original EU 12 it’s probably between 7 and 15%.
Now, if you said 35-40% of internet hate posting, I’d give you that.
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That depends entirely on whether McDonald’s starts offering home delivery.
If they do, that movement is so screwed.
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It’s probably less than that. Modern voter turnout in the States is 50-60%.
So, if the right wing or die people are the ones that come out to vote (and they should be, if they’re that enthusiastic), then they’d be 35-40% of the voting public, or 20-25% of the actual population.
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Mmm, I dunno… Trump … the people who seem to surround him … assault rifle … could be 
Yeah, as @nimelennar points out, I should say “voters” rather than talking about the whole population. But I think the US has an unusually high number of authoritarian voters. I’d peg Canada at around 30%, and I’m fairly sure the US is higher. In a lot of EU countries it’s harder to tell because of multiple viable authoritarian parties.
maybe coup isn’t the right word. what if trump actually wants to quit? that’s my thesis.
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Diehards will see it as Trump being forced out and make an even bigger stink. I know because I live with several.
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Well, if the Trumpians want to rise up en-mass and do something about it, that’s fine with me. I’ll just use the National Guard and their fucking tanks and then invite them over for brunch when they’ve cleaned things up.
It used to be a fair fight back when both sides just had rifles. But the CinC has a lot more resources than he used to and, frankly, a lot more unity than Trumpers ever will.
Yes, and that’s how Trump could frame it: totally unfair!
His losing would be rigged too, but still involves actually losing. I can’t imagine Trump wants months of actually losing.
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SAD.
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He may poll as unfavorable with certain demographics, but they still have to vote for a different candidate. What kind of turnout is this election really going to have?
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I’d say 20-25% of Canadian voters are authoritarians; those are the numbers that the Reform party used to pull in. The other 5-10% are the “sane conservatives” who lament the death of the federal PC party, and then there are the 10% or so of moderates who the Conservatives can win over if they try hard enough.
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October Surprises work when you’ve got 3 or 4 points to make up, not if you are looking at 15%. George W Bush’s DUI did about a 3 point dent on him the week before the election. I don’t recall the poll numbers before or after the Romney “47% of the country are chislers” video, but that was probably about that level of a dent, too. Babara Boxer almost lost to Bruce Hersehnson in 1992 until she dropped the “gentlemen’s club” story the Thursday before election day, but again – that was a 3-4% effect.
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I’m just counting everyone who voted for Harper last election.
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