congrats on successfully baiting me, i guess?
Well, that’s the way the primaries work. Sort of working as intended…and rightfully so. If Biden ends up with the majority in the primaries, then he is our majority D candidate.
And while I get where you are going on this one…that is on the candidates to get together and willingly choose to run/not run based on shared principals/platforms.
I wouldn’t hold my breath on that though
They are. And there is absolutely zero wrong with what @xeni has done here with the post and reference.
But…ya know…taters gonna tate, drolls gonna droll.
They are. But no single poll is really indicitive on its own, no poll is predictive ever. And really important, polls this early in the process don’t really tell you all that much. For the most part they kinda just track name recognition and general warm feels.
BB has had a habit recently of pointing at each specific poll showing an increase for Warren or Sanders, and especially Sanders. Regardless of where they sit in the context of all polls. Or the trend over time. And heavily covering speculative “who would win” direct match up polls that are never very good or informative. What they haven’t been covering is all the equally good (or bad) polls that have come out showing Biden gaining, Sanders falling, or anything on the broader trends in overall polling.
That gives a distinct impression of Biden losing ground, and Sanders and Warren (but especially Sanders) building momentum.
Which isn’t what’s really happening.
Sanders is staying put. There’s a definite trend towards Warren. And Biden is kinda staying put after his polls tapered off following the initial rush of his announcement. He’s sitting pretty much exactly where he was before he announced, and he’s still decidedly leading.
This poll could be an early sign of where those trends are heading, or it could be a fluke. We have no way of knowing.
ETA: and importantly you could portray exactly the opposite impression by highlighting slightly different polls.
How about the top 5 assemble into a super-candidate, like Voltron?
The only thing that those polls seem to definitively say is that everyone who isn’t Biden, Sanders or Warren should drop out. (Harris and Buttigieg can throw Hail Marys if they choose at this point, but I deeply doubt Harris will even exceed their previous high, and Buttigieg, I think, is mostly advertising for 2032 or 2036).
They are still going to have to vote on who gets to be the head. (Can you imagine picking Biden to the head?)
I personally don’t think it is trolling to say “boingboing is utilizing cherrypicked polls, a behavior they have mocked Trump for in the past” but eye accede to your starchy wisdom
Growing old ain’t for wimps. It’s why so many don’t make it to ‘old’. I should know.
I think the odds are well above 50% its gonna be Biden or Warren at this point. And I suspect that Buttigieg is angling for name recognition and/or cabinet post and is probably a bit surprised how well he’s doing.
I mostly wrote this just to have an excuse to say I love your glitch avatar.
Generally speaking, Warren supporters don’t like Sanders and vice versa. There isn’t a ton of polling on second choices right now but generally Warren is not the second choice of a Sanders voter and vice versa.
(edit: It would have been more accurate to say “Generally speaking, Warren supporters don’t like Sanders enough to have Sanders be their backup vote and vice versa”)
I kinda doubt that. There’s me, for instance. I’d be pretty all right with either as prez.
There is so much ego involved in just saying "I should be the president of the U.S. " that colluding with the other candidates is dead on arrival. Would that it were not so, but it is.
Not sure where you’re getting that? Literally everyone I know (not just Boingers, lol) has one preferred and the other as alternate choice.
(Insert why-not-both gif here.)
Well, it depends on people’s decision tree. It feels like any rational person would be making their top priority supporting someone based on their policy. But I think we all know that many people have “Are they male?” higher up on their filter, and would jump from Sanders to Biden.
I think there’s a version somewhere out there if you look. I’m disappointed in BB because I asked to be on it and wasn’t added.
Only morning consult is really doing major second choice polling right now so take this with a HUGE salt shaker of salt (cherrypicking data from a singular poll is usually bad!) but generally speaking there is a lot less overlap than I personally would expect. I don’t have the data in front of me but what I can remember from 538 podcasts there’s a big college==Warren, !college==Sanders divide.
Here’s some data:
It seems to go the other way.
The important thing to keep in mind is that we don’t choose candidates by opinion poll, not even by who gets into the debates at this point, but by primaries, which are still a good ways off. Many people don’t pay more than token attention to the election until close to the primaries (if then).
And exactly what poll did you conduct to come to this conclusion? Generally speaking.
A Warren/Sanders ticket would be unbelievably wonderful.
But, you know, pundits will keep talking about some sort of bullshit “electability” purity test.