I was referring to the fact that Fivethirtyeight is currently projecting that Trump will receive about 45% of the popular vote. Maybe they’re way off, but if you don’t trust their projections then I’m not sure why you referenced them in the first place.
you did not provide that context initially.
He sat out one of the 2016 GOP primary debates because his fee-fees got hurt yet he still won the nomination.
Not saying this is a brilliant tactical decision but it still might be the least-bad approach for his campaign if the alternative is to show up on screen looking deathly ill and wheezing out incoherent drug-fueled nonsense until his mic gets cut by the moderator.
Harder to play the role of a strongman when your physical and mental infirmity is on full display.
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Trump refused to wear a mask. Now he will be muzzled by Covid and his refusal to debate on a virtual platform. The flushing of this swamp has begun.
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At this point it’s about turnout. I doubt anyone is legitimately going to make a decision based on these debates. Any one claiming to be undecided is simply going to walk into the booth and vote a party line or just not vote.
Donald Tump foaming at the mouth for 2 hours unable to form a coherent sentence, or wheezing in public, is a very different image of these things than the typical media narrative. One that’s going to make party line voters and Trump supporters more likely to stay home.
Trump pulling a no show, and the debate going forward with just Biden just gives you the regular spin cycle. Is Trump strong? Did Biden’s teeth offend farriers in southern Montana? What does Michael Cohen think!?
I’ve got no confidence on the news to run with the important bit. That Trump is obviously too sick to participate. So it’ll just wash his horse shit like it normally does.
The reporting was that he was trying to check himself out against medical advice. And his little car ride was some sort of compromise to keep him in Walter Reed.
Trump isn’t back at the White House because he’s doing better. To keep his base riled up he needs to be seen, and he needs to be seen as strong. His whole thing is based on projecting a classic strong man image that lets his followers gloss over his obvious inadequacies. And makes them feel strong and butch as fuck by association. Like spending too much on a lifted pickup truck.
Being out of sight is bad. Being seen on the virge of physical collapse in public is worse. That following on the heels of the first debate probably magnifies it. Poking around right wing responses to that the dominant thread was blame Chris Mathews secret democrat. And there was a surprising amount of shocked or disappointed realizations that the guy is rediculous and unhinged. The only positive reactions were conspiracy or Proud Boy related.
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Clearly Trump is just scared of getting squashed in a second debate.
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Biden could make the case to turn it into a town hall. He usually does very well in that sort of format, and it negates worries about being grilled by a moderator.
But, most likely it’ll just be outright canceled, with the majority of Americans seeing baby Donnie as the whining loser who ran away from it. His base, of course, will claim it’s all unfair to him, but who cares.
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A lot of people have changed their opinion on him. Matt Drudge for instance, which is huge.
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I’m positive that’s a function of the Dems trying to hold together a far broader coalition of Americans, which is difficult to do from election to election. The progressive far left would likely sit this out if not for the sheer obvious danger Trump has brought to the country, much as they chose to sit out in 2016, or vote for someone else.
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I guess you can’t really go for a virtual debate when you’re completely devoid of virtue.
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This one’s supposed to be a town hall format anyway, isn’t it?
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I think there’s a bit of selection bias going on with this sort of thing. In my experience Democrats and the Left are more likely to view that sort of public display as in poor taste, sort of like how they’re less accepting of hollow public displays of patriotism in general.
Like I don’t think anyone in my family has ever put up a yard sign, and my sister is the only one to have ever purchased a campaign bumper sticker. Despite the family having been very politically active for generations.
That said where I live has been a reliably conservative area since the Revolutionary War. And there have been what are basically permanent public shrines to Trump since he announced his primary run. There are currently a lot more signs for Biden and Democratic candidates than Trump/Right Wing ones. The big Trump shrine in my neighborhood is now surrounded on all sides by even bigger counterpoints.
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So instead of the first 20 minutes of the virtual debate being Trump and Biden fiddling around with Zoom settings, just Biden fiddling around with Zoom settings?
Sounds good. I’m there.
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I’m so tired of these analogies. Swamp this. Swamp that. What the hell do they mean?
Let’s support America’s wetlands.
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That’s good to hear. I can only report anecdotally what I have seen. I don’t know how accurate the picture might be when drawn from people’s willingness to put a sign in the yard. It’s just one marker among many. My feeling from talking to friends and acquaintances from both parties is that only the most brainwashed of Trump’s cultists are going to vote for him. I think a lot of the weakly convicted GOP will stay home because they are self aware enough to be embarrassed by Trump. We will all know soon.
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No, no. A gaffe can still be a gaffe. Trump is beyond gaffe. We need a new word to describe Trump- level gaffes.
Damn, I miss this guy…
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Of course my worry is that he will kick over the playing board when he realizes that he has lost.
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The consensus seems to be that he’s driving everyone but the true believers off.
I don’t know if that gets over the “our guy” party voters, the sort who will vote for the Republican no matter which Republican. That’s pretty much what carried him towards the end of the primary and the last election.
I think less self awareness keeping them home, than a creeping sense of cognitive dissonance sapping enthusiasm. Like I said up thread I’ve noticed a discouraged tone to reactions since the debate. Even among the hardcore. Like there was a bunch of chatter about how the pale, gray haired, weak man who appeared in Trump’s live videos around his diagnosis and the car ride can’t be Trump. But must one of his many doubles.
That’s a pretty drastic shift in the tone of denial. Not that he’s fine, or he beat covid. Or even that he obviously was never sick to begin with. But that this isn’t Trump at all. Because the lack of bronzer and frailty are undeniable.
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